Different teams, same game
Happy Friday! After what felt like an eternity of waiting, the World Series finally begins tonight — and this one looks a little different than most. Milwaukee and Tampa Bay are two of baseball’s smallest markets, two of its lowest-payroll contenders and, as it turns out, two teams who also win in pretty similar ways. We’ll break down the Brewers-Rays “Small Classic” below, including why Milwaukee is favored despite the matchup looking so evenly-balanced. Plus, LeBron somehow just authored the biggest comeback of his 1,624-game NBA career, the WNBA Finals could move to the brink Saturday, and a packed sports weekend brings Chiefs-Seahawks, Talladega, and a potential F1 title-clincher. Here’s what all we’re watching:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Friday (10/23)
⚾ World Series: Rays (37%) at Brewers (63%), Game 1 (Series tied 0-0) - 8 p.m. (FOX)
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Brewers 65% to win
🏀 WNBA Finals: No games. (Off-day)
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Dream 79% to win
🏈 CFB: Duke (45%) at Virginia (55%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN2)
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 17% to win national title
🏀 NBA: Knicks (44%) at Celtics (56%) - 7 p.m. (Prime Video)
🏀🏆 NBA title check-in: Thunder 28% to win
🏒 NHL: Lightning (46%) at Avalanche (54%) - 9 p.m. (ESPN+) - 2022 Stanley Cup rematch!
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Avalanche 12% to win
⚽ Premier League: Ipswich Town (31%) at Nottingham Forest (42%) - 3 p.m. (USA Network)
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 62% to win
⛳ PGA Tour: Butterfield Bermuda Championship, Round 2 (Golf Channel) - Ben Kohles 11% to win
Saturday (10/24)
⚾ World Series: Rays at Brewers, Game 2 - 8 p.m. (FOX)
🏀🏆 WNBA Finals: Valkyries (34%) at Dream (66%), Game 4 (ATL leads 2-1) - 1 p.m. (NBC / Peacock)
🏈 CFB: No. 6 Indiana (73%) at Michigan (27%) - 12 p.m. (FOX)
🏈 CFB: No. 7 Ole Miss (40%) at No. 19 Texas (60%) - 7:30 p.m. (ABC / ESPN+)
🏈 CFB: No. 14 Houston (31%) at No. 10 Utah (69%) - 10:15 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 NBA: Warriors at Suns - 10 p.m. (NBA TV)
🏒 NHL: Maple Leafs at Oilers - 7 p.m. (CBC / Sportsnet / ESPN+)
⚽ Premier League: Chelsea (56%) at Tottenham Hotspur (22%) - 12:30 p.m. (NBC / Peacock)
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Nashville SC 19% to win MLS Cup
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: San Diego Wave FC 24% to win
⛳ PGA Tour: Butterfield Bermuda Championship, Round 3 (Golf Channel)
🥊 UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski (51%) vs. Movsar Evloev (49%) - 2 p.m. (Paramount+) - UFC Featherweight Title
🥊 Boxing: Dalton Smith (66%) vs. Alberto Puello (34%) - 2 p.m. (DAZN) - WBC Junior Welterweight Title
🥊 Boxing: Emanuel Navarrete (44%) vs. O'Shaquie Foster (56%) - 8 p.m. (DAZN) - WBO, IBF & WBC Junior Lightweight Titles
Sunday (10/25)
🏈 NFL: Bengals (47%) at Ravens (53%) - 1 p.m. (CBS)
🏈 NFL: Packers (37%) at Lions (63%) - 4:25 p.m. (FOX)
🏈 NFL: Chiefs (43%) at Seahawks (57%) - 8:20 p.m. (NBC / Peacock)
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: 49ers 16% to win NFL title⚾ World Series: No games. (Off-day)
🏀 WNBA Finals: No games. (Off-day)
🏀 NBA: Clippers at Thunder - 7 p.m. (FanDuel Sports Network / NBA League Pass)
🏒 NHL: Canadiens at Jets - 7 p.m. (TNT / Max) - Heritage Classic 🧊
⚽ Premier League: Liverpool (45%) at Brighton (31%) - 10 a.m. (USA Network)
⚽ MLS: LAFC (62%) at LA Galaxy (19%) - 9 p.m. (Apple TV - MLS Season Pass) - “El Tráfico”
⚽🏆 Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 27% to win
⚽🏆 Europa League title check-in: Juventus 15% to win
🏁 NASCAR Cup Series: YellaWood 500 at Talladega Superspeedway - 2 p.m. (NBC) - Ryan Blaney 9% to win
🏁🏆 NASCAR Cup title check-in: Kyle Larson 34% to win
🏁 F1: United States Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas, Austin - 3 p.m. (ABC) - Max Verstappen 47% to win
🏁🏆 F1 title check-in: Kimi Antonelli 97% to win (Driver’s) / Mercedes 98% to win (Constructor’s)
⛳ PGA Tour: Butterfield Bermuda Championship, Final Round (Golf Channel)
Fall Classic, Small Classic
After layoffs of 7 days — for Milwaukee, the second-longest since 1969 — and 3 days — for Tampa Bay — the 2026 World Series finally gets underway tonight between the Brewers and Rays. Will rest or rust be a factor? I’ve snarkily dismissed either, since it can be spun post-hoc to fit any desired narrative, but it is true that those 10 combined off-days going into a World Series has this year tied for the second-longest such layoff between both teams in history:
In terms of the matchup itself, the various markets list Milwaukee as about a 63% favorite — which is also supported by statistical forecasts like the Elo ratings, and makes the Brewers the 16th-biggest favorite in the market since 1985 (using historical odds from SportsOddsHistory). For reference, that’s almost exactly the same as the Cubs’ odds going into the World Series with Cleveland 10 years ago, which Chicago ended up winning in 7 games.
This being baseball, though, the record for heavy favorites is surprisingly mixed. Of the other 19 favorites on the list above, 11 won the World Series and 8 lost it — but the Top 10 is split exactly down the middle, 5-5, between favorites and underdogs.
And in terms of vibes, at least, this year’s Brewers-Rays series feels a lot more evenly matched than those market odds would seem to indicate.
Maybe that’s just the “small-market” perception — and reality — of a series between Milwaukee and Tampa-St. Pete. They’re two of the smaller-sized media markets in MLB, and both are around only 20th in the leaguewide payroll rankings, belying the narrative that only rich teams can win the World Series nowadays.
Maybe it’s also the fact that the two teams are kind of mirror-images of each other, with similar strengths and weaknesses. According to the regular-season Wins Above Replacement (WAR) rankings, both teams boasted Top-5 position player corps — who were Top-10 at hitting, baserunning and fielding — and Top-10 pitching staffs, led by Top-10 starting rotations. The Brewers were just a little sharper across the board, with a particular edge in the bullpen, and that can add up to a meaningful edge in a playoff series.
Even if you compare strength-for-strength across players on each roster, both teams have a dominant ace — Jacob Misiorowski (MIL), Drew Rasmussen (TB) — a strong secondary starter — Logan Henderson (MIL), Freddy Peralta (TB) — a lights-out reliever — Aaron Ashby (MIL), Bryan Baker (TB) — and plenty of tough hitters, including playoff heroes William Contreras and Jake Bauers (MIL) and Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero (TB).
Also important: These two teams play very similar styles. As I pointed out in Yahoo’s Sports AM newsletter the other day, the Brewers and Rays share high leaguewide rankings in a bunch of what we might call “small ball” offensive categories — from singles (of the regular or infield variety), bunts (of the sacrifice or hit variety), stolen bases, contact rate, and success rate at those fundamental activities such as moving runners over and getting them home via "productive outs”. Many modern teams eschew those little acts in favor of trying to hit 3-run home runs, but both Tampa Bay and Milwaukee are good at scratching out runs from situations that wouldn’t otherwise produce them.
The market knows all of this, to be clear, and it’s still pricing the Brewers as favorites — because they have more talent and simply do a lot of this stuff better. (Though it’s worth noting that Tampa ranked first over Milwaukee in a number of our small-ball categories above.) But in a Fall Classic where two teams are trying to beat each other at essentially the same game, don’t be surprised if this series ends up being more epic than the odds might suggest.
Comeback king
Making his home debut as a member of the Philadelphia 76ers Thursday night, LeBron James and his team appeared to come out completely flat — allowing a 24-7 Cavaliers run to end the 1st quarter and trailing Cleveland by 29 at one point during the 2nd. But what was looking like an embarrassing flop for a superteam turned into a historic turnaround, with Philly outscoring James’ former team by 16 in the 3rd and by 16 more in the 4th to win 114-106. Buoyed by 32 points from Tyrese Maxey, 24 from Joel Embiid and a 17-point/10-rebound double-double from James, the Sixers overcame what the prediction markets thought was just a 5% chance to win at their low point. And somehow, in Game No. 1,624 of his NBA career, James had his biggest-ever comeback at 29 points, supplanting the Lakers’ 27-point comeback against Dallas on Feb. 26, 2023.
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏀 “How the NBA Divides its Minutes” by Austin Cornilles
🏈 “The Coaching Carousel is Finally Moving” by Hector Diaz
⚽ “Why shouldn’t the NWSL aim for 30 teams?” by Katie McInerney
⚾ “Which World Series Paths Were the Toughest?” by ritmica
⚽ “The Premier League Is Eating Europe, Rahm Walks Away From $100m, & Infantino Rises Again” by Business of Sport
Next on deck…
Monday (10/26)
🎉 Happy Sports Equinox!
🏈 Monday Night Football: Cowboys at Eagles
⚾🏆 MLB Playoffs: Brewers at Rays, World Series Game 3
🏀🏆 WNBA Playoffs: Valkyries at Dream, WNBA Finals Game 5 🚨
🏀 NBA: Warriors at Nuggets
🏒 NHL: Red Wings at Oilers
⚽ Serie A: Cagliari at Roma
Tuesday (10/27)
🏈 CFB: Delaware at Western Kentucky
⚾🏆 MLB Playoffs: Brewers at Rays, World Series Game 4 🚨
🏀🏆 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏀 NBA: Trail Blazers at Lakers
🏒 NHL: Bruins at Hurricanes
⚽ DFB-Pokal: Werder Bremen at Borussia Dortmund
Wednesday (10/28)
🏈 CFB: Jacksonville State at New Mexico State
⚾🏆 MLB Playoffs: Brewers at Rays, World Series Game 5 (if necessary) 🚨
🏀🏆 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏀 NBA: Thunder at Mavericks
🏒 NHL: Devils at Avalanche
⚽ Carabao Cup: Brighton & Hove Albion at Manchester City
