Major movie franchise sequels might not be the safe bet they once were

It’s been a huge week at the global box office... but perhaps not in the way Disney had hoped, as low-budget horror movies about liminal spaces and limerence outshone the first “Star Wars” film without lightsabers.

In its opening weekend, “Backrooms” took $118 million worldwide, making the horror — based on internet lore from a 4chan “creepypasta” and directed by 20-year-old YouTuber Kane Parsons — the largest debut ever for A24, per Variety, despite its ~$10 million budget. Another indie horror made by a Gen Z social media star, Curry Barker’s “Obsession,” scooped $26.4 million in its third weekend, bringing its global total to $148 million, which is very nearly 200x its $750,000 budget.

“The Mandalorian and Grogu,” meanwhile, the 12th live-action movie installment to come from the “Star Wars” universe, plunged ~70% from what was already the lowest-grossing debut for a Disney-era Jedi flick, accruing just $24.4 million in its second weekend. Per figures from The Numbers, this puts its worldwide box office earnings to date at ~$249 million, versus its comparatively sizeable $165 million price tag.

Not even accounting for the film’s rumored ~$300 million marketing budget that’s seen everything from fast food to TV cartoons furnished with Baby Yodas, cinema ticket sales for “The Mandalorian” are so far failing to stack up against its predecessors, including 2019’s “The Rise of Skywalker,” which grossed over a billion at the global box office.

Wait a second...

The somewhat unprecedented success of two low-budget horror movies, alongside the tepid reaction to a major Disney-owned franchise spanning almost 50 years, has seen pundits sound alarm bells that the gap in box office takings could indicate a “tectonic” industry shift.

That said, the horror genre has proved it can fill cinema seats in recent years, capturing a record-slashing market share of the US box office throughout 2025 thanks to hits like “Sinners” and “Weapons,” while indie movies have also long been met with overwhelmingly positive audience and critical receptions, particularly those produced by A24. So, what exactly has got Hollywood spooked?

Well, on one hand, the fact that the young, internet-native directors of “Backrooms” and “Obsession” have managed to meaningfully shift success in the online realm into real-world box office results. On the other, it could be that pouring money into sequels seems like a less safe bet than it was a few years ago.

Data from Box Office Mojo on the top 10 movies per year by worldwide box office gross shows that though the three highest-grossing movies last year — “Ne Zha 2” (~$2.3 billion), “Zootopia 2” (~$1.9 billion), and “Avatar: Fire and Ash” ($1.5 billion) — were all sequels, there was only one other follow-up film that broke into the overall ranking. In 2024, eight of the top 10 were sequels.

While some of this year’s sequels, including “The Devil Wears Prada 2,” are still proving the Marvel-verified rule that beloved characters and tropes often trump less familiar, more original ideas, a decline in high-earning spin-offs may suggest some franchise fatigue at the silver screen. Only time will tell whether that trend holds up, however, with fan-favorite saga continuations like “Toy Story 5,” “Spider-Man: Brand New Day,” and “Dune: Part Three” all to come later in 2026.