October gets real
Happy Tuesday! And hopefully you’re buckled in, because baseball’s Division Series reaches a serious fork in the road tonight — with Chris Sale and Yoshinobu Yamamoto squaring off in an absolutely pivotal Dodgers-Braves Game 3, while the Padres try to keep their season alive against a Brewers team that’s been impossible to put away. And don’t worry: we’ll get to the Yankees’ error-filled foibles in the AL below as well. Plus, Michael Penix Jr. has suddenly transformed Atlanta into one of the NFL’s hottest offenses, the USMNT’s youth movement under Mauricio Pochettino gets another test against Canada tonight, and Alex Ovechkin will call it a career after this season. Here’s what we’ve got our eye on today:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
MLB:
⚾ NLDS: Dodgers (51%) at Braves (49%) - Game 3 (Series tied 1-1), 6 p.m. (FS1) - Sale vs. Yamamoto!
⚾ NLDS: Brewers (44%) at Padres (56%) - Game 3 (MIL leads 2-0), 9:30 p.m. (FS1) 🚨
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Dodgers 29% to win
WNBA:
🏀 Second Round: No games. (Off-day)
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Dream 35% to win
NHL:
🏒 Islanders (42%) at Rangers (58%) - 7:30 p.m. (ESPN)
🏒 Golden Knights (61%) at Kraken (39%) - 9:40 p.m.
🏒 Panthers (54%) at Kings (46%) - 10 p.m. (ESPN)
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Avalanche 13% to win
Football:
🏈 CFB: Southern Miss (21%) at Troy (79%) - 8 p.m. (ESPN2)
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: Rams 13% to win NFL title
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 19% to win national title
Soccer:
⚽ International Friendly: USMNT (57%) vs. Canada (20%) - 8 p.m. (TNT)
⚽ MLS: Vancouver (43%) at Chicago (33%) - 8:30 p.m. (Apple TV)
⚽🏆 Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 27% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 63% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 23% to win MLS Cup
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Gotham FC 27% to win
Like a Penix rising from the ashes
Sports history has a tendency to rhyme, if not outright repeat. So when the Atlanta Falcons visited the New Orleans Superdome on Monday Night Football — essentially the 20-year anniversary (give or take a few weeks) of the Saints’ “Domecoming” win over Atlanta in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, with Steve Gleason’s iconic blocked punt — many were expecting another emotional Saints W.
Instead, though, the Falcons came out and dominated the Saints (hardly a terrible team, btw), taking a 24-7 lead into halftime and running the final score to 45-24. QB Michael Penix Jr. was highly efficient throwing to Drake London and friends, and the double-Robinson RB attack of Bijan and Brian Jr. racked up 207 yards on the ground with FIVE touchdowns. (Hope you had them handcuffed together in fantasy!)
This was a far cry from the version of the Falcons before Penix replaced Cooper Rush at QB, which started the season 0-2 while averaging just 8.0 PPG — ever since the change, Atlanta is averaging a whopping 40.0 PPG (!) in wins over Green Bay and New Orleans. As far as in-season turnarounds go, the Falcons have improved by 42.2 PPG relative to an average team between Games 1-2 and 3-4 of the season, if we adjust for game locations and the Elo ratings of their opponents. That’s the sixth-biggest swing in performance to start an NFL season since 1950, and the third-biggest since 1990:
There’s always a question with these types of dramatic small-sample changes around just how “real” the improvements are, and it’s a fair one to ask: The other 9 teams on the Top-10 list above reverted to a subpar -3.6 adjusted PPG margin over the rest of the season on average. But few had quite the same situation as the Falcons, who legitimately swapped from one of the worst QBs in the league to one of the best in the early going.
Among teams who had big turnarounds, the Falcons are easily the highest-ranked squad who also changed primary QBs between Games 1-2 and 3-4, beating out the 2024 Panthers when they temporarily switched from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton:
Even the other QB-change teams were unable to sustain their sudden improvements from there, finishing with an average adjusted PPG margin of -1.8 over the rest of the season. But Penix at least does have a prior history of above-average QB Expected Points Added (EPA), which probably offers Atlanta some higher chance at retaining more of their improved form going forward. But we’ll find out more on Sunday, when the Falcons take on the Ravens — who may be missing their own starting QB, Lamar Jackson — in a game where the market still favors Baltimore on the road by about 56 to 44, percentage-wise.
System error
After being stifled by Rays starter Drew Rasmussen in Game 1 — seeing their only real chance to score evaporate on a poor baserunning decision by catcher Austin Wells — the New York Yankees needed a much stronger showing in Monday’s Game 2 if they wanted any hope to make the ALCS. But they signaled right away that it wasn’t really their night, committing 3 errors behind ace Cam Schlittler in the first inning en route to 4 in the game overall (it looked like more before one was overturned by the official scorer), which tied for the fourth-most by any team in a playoff game since 1969 and paved the way for a 5-2 loss that put NY down 2-0 in the series:
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
📺 “Why Does Every Insurance Company Have an Expansive, Tolkien-esque Universe of Mascots?” by Jeff Maurer - Note: Very pertinent if you watch sports for, like, 2 seconds or longer
⚾ “Runs Are Scored Differently in the Playoffs: Cui Bono?” by Maxfield Lane and Owen Riley
⛳ “Not dead yet? LIV 2.0 takes big step forward” by Bob Harig
🏈 “The Age of Tunnel Fits: Why the NFL hired a ‘fashion editor’” by Gregg Easterbrook
🏒 “The Danger of the Cinderella Story” by Amy Moritz
Next on deck…
Wednesday (10/7)
🏈 CFB: Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Guardians at White Sox, ALDS Game 3 🚨
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Rays at Yankees, ALDS Game 3 🚨
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Dodgers at Braves, NLDS Game 4 (if necessary) 🚨
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Brewers at Padres, NLDS Game 4 (if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Liberty at Dream, Semifinals Game 2
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Aces vs. Valkyries, Semifinals Game 2
🏒 NHL: Penguins at Capitals
⚽ MLS: Fire at Whitecaps
Thursday (10/8)
🏈 Thursday Night Football: Buccaneers at Cowboys
🏈 CFB: South Florida at UTSA
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Guardians at White Sox, ALDS Game 4 (if necessary) 🚨
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Rays at Yankees, ALDS Game 4 (if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏒 NHL: Maple Leafs at Golden Knights
⚽ UEFA Nations League: France vs. Belgium
⛳ Golf: Baycurrent Classic, Round 1
Friday (10/9)
🏈 CFB: Florida State at Louisville
🏈 CFB: Iowa at Washington
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Braves at Dodgers, NLDS Game 5 (if necessary) 🚨
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Padres at Brewers, NLDS Game 5 (if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Dream at Liberty, Semifinals Game 3
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Valkyries at Aces, Semifinals Game 3
🏒 NHL: Rangers at Capitals
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Italy vs. Belarus
⛳ Golf: Baycurrent Classic, Round 2
