October loading… ⏳
Greetings on this Tuesday in sports! The Rams closed out Week 2 of the NFL season by flattening the Giants, 28-6, in Aaron Donald’s return from retirement — but New York’s bigger loss was under center, with QB Jaxson Dart believed to have sprained his MCL. He’s the latest addition to an already-long list of injured starting quarterbacks, which we’ll dig into below. Meanwhile, MLB’s regular season is down to its final few days, with the playoff field mostly set, but several division races and seeding questions still hang in the balance. Amidst all that, the WNBA’s playoff seeding picture also remains up in the air with days left in their season, and the Presidents Cup gets underway with practice rounds at Medinah. Here’s what we’ve got an eye on today:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Football:
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: Rams 14% to win NFL title
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Texas 15% to win national title
MLB:
⚾ Rays (47%) at Yankees (53%) - 1:05 p.m. / 7:05 p.m. (YES/TBS)
⚾ Brewers (44%) at Phillies (56%) - 6:40 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Padres (48%) at Dodgers (52%) - 10:10 p.m. (TBS/SportsNet LA)
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Dodgers 30% to win
WNBA:
🏀 Sun (8%) at Mystics (92%) - 7:30 p.m. (MNMT)
🏀 Lynx (49%) at Fever (51%) - 8 p.m. (ESPN) - Crucial seeding battle/potential playoff matchup
🏀 Sparks (8%) at Aces (92%) - 10 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Lynx 48% to win
Soccer:
⚽ Women's Champions League: FC Bayern Munich (48%) vs. Manchester City (33%) - 12:45 p.m. (ESPN Deportes/DAZN)
⚽ Women's Champions League: Real Madrid (56%) vs. Paris Saint-Germain (23%) - 3 p.m. (ESPN+)
⚽🏆 Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 25% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 49% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 24% to win MLS Cup
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Washington Spirit 30% to win
Golf:
⛳ Presidents Cup (Medinah Country Club) - Official practice rounds - All Day (Golf Channel) - Team USA 82% to win
Last train to October
After a light-feeling Monday slate with just three games — only one of which (Blue Jays-Orioles) had any kind of playoff significance — MLB will now settle into its last six days of the 2026 regular season, with packed schedules each day. And by the time Sunday evening rolls around, the playoff field will be set, and we’ll be off and running with the postseason starting on Tuesday.
What’s left to be decided? As of Tuesday morning, 11 of the 12 playoff teams are either locked-in or highly likely to do so, with six teams already having clinched (Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox) and five additional ones sitting above 97% playoff odds according to Elo rating-based simulations (Cubs, Phillies, Padres, White Sox, Guardians). The last remaining intrigue involves the following questions:
Who will win the AL East? Though 3 teams from the division have clinched playoff spots, the division crown is still technically up for grabs — though the Rays are just a shade under 98% to win according to Elo.
Who will win the AL Central? By contrast, this one is actually up for grabs. The Guardians currently lead by 1 game, and both teams play 1 of their 2 remaining series at Kansas City. But the White Sox have the slight edge (58-42) in the odds because their other remaining series is hosting the worst-record-in-baseball Rockies, while Cleveland must visit the playoff-bound Red Sox.
What will be the AL Central consolation prize? The good news for either Cleveland or Chicago is that the loser will almost certainly make the playoffs as a wild card anyway — the Pale Hose currently hold a 3-game wild-card lead over the Astros (and 3½ over Toronto), meaning Cleveland is up at least 4 on those teams as well.
Who will win the AL West? With Texas holding a 1-game lead, the Rangers have about a 60-40 edge over the Astros, without a huge schedule disparity in terms of quality — Texas hosts the Mets and visits the Twins (average remaining Elo: 1488); Houston plays 2 games at Seattle and travels to the A’s for 4 (average Elo: 1472).
What will be the AL West consolation prize? The bad news for either Houston or Texas is that the loser will almost certainly not make the playoffs as a wild-card, due to their aforementioned gap versus Cleveland/Chicago. So there’s a lot less margin for error in the AL West than there is in the AL Central.
Who will claim the NL wild cards? All three NL divisions are already wrapped up, so the outstanding business centers around the runners-up, with the Cubs, Phillies and Padres all sitting at least 4 games clear of the Diamondbacks for the last spot. Barring some kind of historic collapse and comeback — and the Padres (1540), Phillies (1535) and Cubs (1519) do all play above-average remaining schedules per Elo — the NL playoff field looks just about set.
But even with the playoff teams mostly known by now, there’s still a lot to play for in terms of seeding in the final few days. Here are the frequencies for each team (with nonzero playoff odds) to finish in each seed slot by league:
Most likely, your No. 1 seeds will be the Brewers (NL) and Rays (AL). Beyond that, the Dodgers and Braves are probably going to be seeded 2-3 in the NL — bad news for Atlanta, since the 3-seed doesn’t get a first-round bye. Over in the AL, the White Sox-Guardians division winner will likely be the 2-seed, with the Rangers-Astros winner slotting in at the 3-seed. (Which, yes, means the winner of maybe the worst division in MLB history — this year’s AL West — will be seeded higher than the Yankees or Red Sox, two teams that are genuinely among the best in MLB. Go figure.)
New York and Boston are effectively locked into the 4-5 seeds, respectively, so they will play a first-round series for the second consecutive year and the third time in six seasons. We also know that the AL West winner will face the AL Central loser in a Round 1 clash of non-titans. The rest of the postseason schedule is less clear, since there are so many moving parts, especially among the 3 NL wild-card seeds. But that’s why there are games left to play — and still plenty of reasons to watch over the next handful of days.
Next passer up
As if to serve as an omen for this 2026 NFL season, Super Bowl-winning quarterback Sam Darnold of the Seahawks was injured almost immediately on opening night a few weeks back. He was joined by Atlanta’s Tua Tagovailoa a few days later — before the Falcons had even played their Week 1 game — and then Minnesota’s Kyler Murray during Week 1. This past weekend delivered two more tough blows to the starting-QB ranks with Chicago’s Caleb Williams and Washington’s Jayden Daniels each going down. And as if all that wasn’t enough, the Giants lost their own young starter, Jaxson Dart, early on Monday Night Football. While Murray is set to return for Minnesota this week, at least five different teams (the Seahawks, Falcons, Bears, Commanders and G-Men) will have a different starting QB in Week 3 than they did in Week 1. How rare is that? Well, it actually happened last year as well — but before that, only three other times since 2000.
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏈 “TMQ: Josh Allen, Stat Machine” by Gregg Easterbrook
⚾ “How ‘Pre 2K’ Hitting Sunk The 2026 Toronto Blue Jays” by Chris Black
🏀 “The Alchemy Of Flame: Why I already know I’m wrong about the Heat” by Hardwood Paroxysm
🏒 “Previewing every NHL team with 1 chart: St. Louis Blues” by Brendan Farrell
🏈 “What Happens If the Cleveland Browns...Actually Start Winning?” by Michael Weinreb
Next on deck…
Wednesday (9/23)
⚾ MLB: Padres at Dodgers
⚾ MLB: Astros at Mariners
🏀 WNBA: Wings at Storm
⚽ MLS: Real Salt Lake at Seattle Sounders FC
⚽ Women's Champions League: FC Barcelona vs. Paris FC
Thursday (9/24)
🏈 NFL: Falcons at Packers
⚾ MLB: Padres at Dodgers
🏀 WNBA: Fever at Lynx
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Netherlands vs. Germany
🏈 CFB: Liberty at Coastal Carolina
Friday (9/25)
🏈 CFB: Clemson at Cal
⚾ MLB: Dodgers at Giants
⚾ MLB: Orioles at Yankees
🏀 WNBA: No games. (Off day before playoffs start Sunday, 9/27)
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Italy vs. Belgium
⛳ Golf: Presidents Cup - Day 1 (Medinah Country Club)
