Race to the finish
Happy Wednesday! With less than two weeks left in baseball’s regular season, most of the playoff field is starting to look pretty settled… but not all of it. With a handful of spots still up for grabs, we’ll sort through the remaining paths to October below. Plus: Connor Bedard is now one of the youngest captains in NHL history, the WNBA remains on pause for one more night, the Europa League gets underway today, Pete Alonso and the Orioles are looking for an encore to last night’s special win over the Mets, and Buffalo is one day away from christening its $2.2 billion new stadium on Thursday Night Football. Here’s what else we’re watching out for today:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern.
Football:
🏈 No college or pro games.
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: Rams 14% to win NFL title
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Notre Dame/Texas 15% to win national title
MLB:
⚾ White Sox (38%) at Guardians (62%) - 1:10 p.m. (ESPN) - More on the significance of this one below.
⚾ Dodgers (66%) at Reds (34%) - 6:30 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾ Orioles (45%) at Mets (55%) - 7 p.m. (ESPN)
⚾ Braves (43%) at Cubs (57%) - 7:30 p.m. (MLB.tv)
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Dodgers 33% to win
Basketball:
🏀 No WNBA games. (FIBA break; season resumes 9/17)
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Lynx 49% to win
Soccer:
⚽ Europa League: Benfica (30%) at AC Milan (43%) - 3 p.m. (CBS Sports Network / Paramount+)
⚽ Europa League: NK Celje (3%) at Bayer Leverkusen (90%) - 3 p.m. (Paramount+)
⚽ NWSL: Angel City FC (45%) at Seattle Reign FC (29%) - 10 p.m. (NWSL+)
⚽🏆 Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 23% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 59% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 21% to win MLS Cup⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Kansas City Current 29% to win
Central processing
By now, with just under two weeks remaining in the 2026 MLB season, we already know a few things about the playoff picture: The NL East (Braves), NL Central (Brewers) and NL West (Dodgers) are either officially locked up, or all but in that category according to the prediction markets. The Tampa Bay Rays are also strong (84%) favorites to hold off the Yankees for the AL East crown. And then, when it comes to wild-card hopefuls, the Cubs and Phillies are each above 90% for the playoffs in the NL, with the Yankees clinching and the Red Sox close to doing so in the AL.
That effectively leaves just four remaining playoff spots up for grabs in any meaningful sense: the NL’s last wild-card spot, the AL Central and West champs, and then whoever snags the last AL wild-card spot as a division-losing consolation prize or otherwise.
The NL side has long been known to basically come down to a pair of NL West squads: the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks. San Diego is 9-4 in September (Arizona is 7-6) and has been one of the best teams in MLB over the past month, putting them in the driver’s seat at 81% playoff odds — even though the Friars and D-Backs will meet for a potentially consequential final series in San Diego from Sept. 25-27.
The AL has a lot more moving parts. The West race is probably the cleanest, with Houston holding a 70% probability to outduel the Rangers (30%) for the division crown — though neither team has particularly great odds of making the playoffs if they don’t win the division.
The Central is where the big action is playing out, including Tuesday night’s wild Guardians-White Sox game — which saw Cleveland blow an early 3-0 lead, but then rally to walk off the Sox in the bottom of the 9th anyway. Cleveland is only a half-game behind Chicago in the standings, and could very well win the division despite trailing by as many as 6 games on August 16. The division-loser there would still have a better than 50% chance to make the postseason as a consolation, but it would not be guaranteed (which is why the bulk of both teams’ playoff odds is still wrapped up in winning the Central).
And finally, there’s Toronto, who has zero chance to win the AL East but is continuing to lurk at the periphery of the wild-card race, just a couple of games back. They’d have to leapfrog both Texas and the Central loser, which is why the market set their odds at just 20%, but it’s another complicating factor in an already complicated playoff race — one which doesn’t have much time left in which to resolve itself.
O Captain! My Captain!
This was no huge surprise, but the Chicago Blackhawks on Tuesday named Connor Bedard their captain ahead of the 2026-27 NHL season. Bedard, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft, has long been considered a “generational” prospect (as overused as that term is) and he ranks 7th all-time in Adjusted Points through a player’s age-20 season. At age 21 years and 60 days, he becomes the sixth-youngest permanent captain (and seventh-youngest overall) in NHL history — though not actually the youngest in Blackhawks franchise history! Jonathan Toews, who would go on to lead Chicago’s 2010s-era dynasty, became team captain in 2008 at age 20 years and 80 days… or about 345 days younger than Bedard is right now.
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
🏈 “NFL Composite Power Ratings: Week 2” by Sam Hoppen
⚾ “The Dodgers Before The Machine” by me
⚽ “Football Was Fashion Long Before Fashion Discovered Football” by David Skilling
⚾ “The Pure Power of Kyle Schwarber—and How Far It May Take Him” by Sean Beney
🏒 “Previewing every NHL team with 1 chart: Colorado Avalanche” by Brendan Farrell
🏀 “Lessons From Being a Student Manager” by Ben Carloni
Next on deck…
Thursday (9/17)
🏈 NFL: Lions at Bills
⚾ MLB: Phillies at Mets
🏀 WNBA: Aces at Storm (return from FIBA break)
⚽ Europa League: Real Sociedad vs. AFC Bournemouth
🏈 CFB: Syracuse at Pittsburgh
⛳ Golf: Biltmore Championship Asheville
Friday (9/18)
🏈 CFB: #22 Houston at #13 Texas Tech
⚾ MLB: Red Sox at Rays
🏀 WNBA: Liberty at Lynx
⚽ MLS: NYCFC vs. Red Bulls
⛳ Golf: Biltmore Championship Asheville
Saturday (9/19)
🏈 CFB: #7 LSU at #8 Ole Miss
⚾ MLB: Red Sox at Rays
🏀 WNBA: Storm at Valkyries
⚽ Premier League: Brighton vs. Arsenal
🏁 NASCAR: Bass Pro Shops Night Race (Bristol Motor Speedway)
🥊 UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
⛳ Golf: Biltmore Championship Asheville
