Ring-shopping
Happy Wednesday! The NFL trade deadline has come and gone, and some contenders spent like they’d been staring at the Lombardi Trophy through a department-store window. Jacksonville was the biggest buyer of all, loading up on defense, while teams like Chicago, San Francisco and Minnesota also pushed some chips into the middle. We’ll look at who bought the most talent, who stockpiled the most future draft capital, and which teams may have overpaid for their shot at a ring. Plus, the latest CFP rankings somehow found room for two 2-loss SEC teams in the Top 6, the Lakers visit the 1-10 Bucks — who suddenly need wins under the league’s new anti-tanking lottery system — and Golden State-Houston headlines a strong NBA night. Here’s what we’re watching today:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Football:
🏈 CFB: UMass (16%) at Toledo (84%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏈 CFB: Sacramento State (9%) at Central Michigan (91%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏈 CFB: Buffalo (53%) at Ball State (47%) - 7:30 p.m. (CBSSN)
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: 49ers 18% to win the NFL title
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 31% to win the national title
NBA:
🏀 Lakers (85%) at Bucks (15%) - 8 p.m.
🏀 Warriors (32%) at Rockets (68%) - 9:30 p.m. (ESPN)
🏀 Thunder (50%) at Trail Blazers (50%) - 10 p.m.
🏀🏆 NBA title check-in: Spurs 23% to win
NHL:
🏒 Lightning (55%) at Sabres (45%) - 7 p.m. (TNT)
🏒 Flyers (34%) at Oilers (66%) - 9 p.m. - 1985 and ‘87 Stanley Cup rematch!
🏒 Mammoth (46%) at Golden Knights (54%) - 9:30 p.m. (TNT)
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Hurricanes 14% to win
Soccer:
⚽ WSL Players Cup: Liverpool vs. Aston Villa - 2 p.m.
⚽ UEFA Women's Champions League: Juventus (7%) vs. OL Lyonnes (87%) - 3 p.m.
⚽🏆 Champions League check-in: FC Barcelona 23% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 78% to win
⚽🏆 Europa League check-in: SL Benfica 21% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Nashville SC 26% to win MLS Cup (playoffs start Thursday, 11/19)
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Washington Spirit 49% to win (playoffs continue w/ semifinals on Saturday, Nov. 14)
College Basketball:
🏀 Marquette (39%) at No. 20 Michigan (61%) - 7 p.m. (FS1)
🏀 Jacksonville State (1%) at No. 8 Houston (99%) - 8 p.m.
🏀 No. 21 USC (77%) at Cal (23%) - 11 p.m.
🏀🏆 March Madness check-in: Duke 16% to win the men’s national title (despite losing to Michigan State)
Buyers and sellers
The NFL trade deadline came and went yesterday afternoon, and it wasn’t without a flurry of activity. As we noted yesterday, football’s last-call for additions and subtractions had traditionally been a lot sleepier than its equivalents in the other major pro leagues, due to a variety of structural factors. But it has gotten a lot busier in recent years — and 2026 did its part to keep that trend alive.
Six trades were completed on Deadline Day itself (the sixth straight year with 5+ deals there), 11 were swung if we include in the week leading up to the deadline (the third straight year that figure was in double-digits) and a grand total of 14 trades happened over the month beforehand — the fifth straight year that number has been achieved, after never once being eclipsed prior to 2022:
Amidst all of that newfound activity, who did the most? We can track talent coming in and out using Approximate Value (AV), which assigns a single number to each NFL player based on his individual performance stats, his playing time, his position and the performance of his team’s unit (offense/defense/special teams).
Based on the total AV since 2024 of players acquired over the month leading up to the 2026 deadline, the Jaguars added by far the most established talent of any team — picking up safety Jessie Bates III and defensive tackles Jordan Davis and Davon Godchaux to shore up their defense in what was already looking like a Super Bowl-ready season.
Nobody else was in Jacksonville’s class for total additions, but the Bears (Jeffery Simmons), 49ers (DeForest Buckner, Keenan Allen), Vikings (Kirk Cousins, LOL) and Seahawks (Quenton Nelson) were next on the list. And at the other end, we see the Colts (who dealt away Buckner, Nelson, Allen and Josh Downs) and, to a lesser extent, the Titans (Simmons, Amani Hooker) as the biggest divestors of veteran talent, followed by the Falcons, Raiders and Chargers.
The flip-side of the buyer/seller equation in the NFL are draft picks. If player talent is the present-day value being exchanged, picks are the future-facing component of the deal — and if we craft an updated version of Chase Stuart’s AV-based draft chart using more recent data, we can assign each pick an expected value based on its round, then add up to the total net value of picks exchanged over the past month:
By that accounting, the Titans (who nabbed 2 first-rounders, a second and fourth) came out most ahead in the draft-capital derby, followed by the Eagles (1 first, 1 second) and Colts (1 third, 2 fourths, 2 fifths and a sixth). Meanwhile — and unsurprisingly — the Jaguars (who gave up a first, 2 seconds, a fifth and a sixth) and Bears (2 firsts and a fourth) were easily the teams who emptied the draft coffers the most.
In general, the two ledgers correlate fairly strongly with each other, which makes sense in the grand chess-match between GMs at the deadline — the market for players and picks is a pretty efficient one.
However, the teams at the extremes may have paid too much or too little in the exchange. Both Chicago and Jacksonville gave up more draft capital than we might have expected from their net additions, though that might be the premium necessary to pursue a Super Bowl. And at the other end, Tennessee and Philadelphia appear to have extracted more pick value than expected from their traded talent, while Indianapolis — who navigated the deadline with an interim GM (Ed Dodds) — received less net draft capital than we’d think from the players they shipped away.
Two losses, no problem
Another week, another set of controversies for the College Football Playoff’s selection committee, who released their latest set of rankings Tuesday evening. And if last week’s kerfuffle was about ignoring head-to-head results, this week’s was about the elevation of 2-loss Alabama into the Top 3 of the rankings, ahead of both undefeated UCLA and six different ranked 1-loss teams (Notre Dame, Miami, Indiana, Texas Tech, Wake Forest and Boise State). Between Bama at No. 3 and Texas at No. 6, this is the first time even one 2-loss team — much less two — were in the Top 6 at this stage of a season since the CFP started in 2014. And of course, it doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes to notice that both the Crimson Tide and Longhorns hail from, you guessed it, the SEC.
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “It’s Been 41 Years Since Baseball Has Seen a Pair of Cy Young Winners Like This” by me
🏈 “Trading for Cousins is the ultimate irony moment” by Brian Murphy
⚾ “Do Not Expect the Owners to be Altruists — but hope both sides find where their interests overlap” by Mark Kolier
🏈 “2027 NFL Draft In-Season PULSE Update” by Benjamin Robinson
⛳ “Trying to make sense of Rahm’s LIV foray” by Bob Harig
🏈 “The Justin Herbert Conundrum” by Michael Weinreb
Next on deck…
Thursday (11/12)
🏈 Thursday Night Football: Commanders at Giants
🏈 CFB: Memphis at South Florida
🏀 NBA: Mavericks at Timberwolves
🏒 NHL: Canadiens at Bruins
⚽ UEFA Nations League: France at Italy
🏀 WBB: #2 UConn at #18 Ohio State
⛳ PGA Tour: Butterfield Bermuda Championship (Round 1)
Friday (11/13)
🏈 CFB: Illinois at #8 UCLA
🏀 NBA: Warriors at Spurs
🏒 NHL: Predators at Golden Knights
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Germany vs. Serbia
🏀 CBB: #12 Arizona at Auburn
⛳ PGA Tour: Butterfield Bermuda Championship (Round 2)
Saturday (11/14)
🏈 CFB: No. 22 Missouri at No. 1 Georgia
🏈 CFB: No. 6 Texas at No. 21 LSU
🏈 CFB: No. 18 USC at No. 9 Indiana
🏀 NBA: Mavericks at Cavaliers
🏒 NHL: Oilers at Maple Leafs
⚽ NWSL Semifinal: Utah at Washington 🚨
🏀 CBB: LSU vs. No. 14 Gonzaga
⛳ PGA Tour: Butterfield Bermuda Championship (Round 3)
🥊 UFC 334: Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit
