The field thins, the plot thickens
Happy Friday! The WNBA and MLB playoffs keep chewing through some of the biggest names in the field, with the star-laden Phillies getting bounced by Atlanta and Caitlin Clark and Indiana eliminated by A'ja Wilson and Las Vegas last night. Tonight, there’s no baseball, which clears space for Dallas and Golden State to play for the final spot in the WNBA’s next round. Plus, college football has another loaded Saturday schedule, and Sunday brings a terrific NFL slate headlined by Rams-Eagles and Broncos-49ers. Here’s what we’re watching this weekend:
The Main Events
All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game
Friday (10/2)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: No games. (Off-day prior to Division Series)
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Dodgers 30% to win
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Wings (24%) at Valkyries (76%) - 9 p.m. (ESPN2) - Game 3 🚨
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Aces 38% to win
🏈 CFB: Penn State (57%) at Northwestern (43%) - 8 p.m. (FOX / Fubo)
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 17% to win national title
🏒 NHL: Rangers (45%) at Red Wings (55%) - 6:30 p.m. (TNT / Max)
🏒 NHL: Blues (37%) at Stars (63%) - 8 p.m. (TNT / Max)
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Avalanche 14% to win
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Belgium (63%) vs. Türkiye (17%) - 2:45 p.m. (Fubo Sports / ViX)
⚽🏆 Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 24% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 64% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 23% to win MLS Cup
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Gotham FC 28% to win
⛳ Golf: Bank of Utah Championship (Ivins, UT) - Round 2 (Golf Channel / Peacock) - Michael Brennan 9% to win
Saturday (10/3)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: White Sox (42%) at Guardians (58%), ALDS Game 1 - 1 p.m. (TBS / Max)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Braves (35%) at Dodgers (65%), NLDS Game 1 - 4 p.m. (FOX / FOX One)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Yankees (45%) at Rays (55%), ALDS Game 1 - 6:30 p.m. (TBS / Max)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Padres (35%) at Brewers (65%), NLDS Game 1 - 8:30 p.m. (FS1 / FOX One)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day prior to Semifinals)
🏈 CFB: #7 Alabama (67%) at #16 Mississippi State (33%) - 12 p.m. (ABC / ESPN+)
🏈 CFB: #5 Ohio State (85%) at #14 Iowa (15%) - 3:30 p.m. (CBS / Paramount+)
🏈 CFB: #8 Florida (67%) at #25 Missouri (33%) - 3:30 p.m. (SEC Network)
🏒 NHL: Kraken at Oilers - 7 p.m. (NHLN)
🏒 NHL: Blues at Avalanche - 9 p.m. (ESPN+ / Altitude)
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Croatia (23%) vs. England (54%) - 2:45 p.m. (FS2 / ViX)
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Spain (92%) vs. Czechia (3%) - 2:45 p.m. (Fubo Sports / ViX)
⛳ Golf: Bank of Utah Championship (Ivins, UT) - Round 3
🥊 UFC 332: Natalia Silva (66%) vs. Wang Cong (34%) - 8 p.m. (CBS / Paramount+)
Sunday (10/4)
🏈 NFL: Rams (64%) at Eagles (36%) - 1 p.m. (FOX)
🏈 NFL: Chiefs (66%) at Raiders (34%) - 4:25 p.m. (CBS / Paramount+)
🏈 NFL: Broncos (42%) at 49ers (58%) - 4:25 p.m. (CBS / Paramount+)
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: Bills 16% to win NFL title
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Padres at Brewers, NLDS Game 2 - 4 p.m. (FS1 / FOX One)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Braves at Dodgers, NLDS Game 2 - 8 p.m. (FS1 / FOX One)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No. 8 Liberty at No. 4 Dream, Semifinals Game 1 - 3 p.m. (ABC)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No. 3 Aces vs. TBD, Semifinals Game 1 - 5 p.m. (ESPN2)
🏒 NHL: Jets at Red Wings - 1 p.m. (NHLN)
🏒 NHL: Mammoth at Rangers - 6 p.m. (MSG / SEG+)
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Portugal (61%) vs. Norway (21%) - 2:45 p.m. (FS2 / ViX)
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Greece (25%) vs. Germany (52%) - 2:45 p.m. (Fubo Sports / ViX)
⛳ Golf: Bank of Utah Championship (Ivins, UT) - Final Round
🏁 NASCAR Cup Series: South Point 400 at Las Vegas - 5:30 p.m. (USA Network) - Kyle Larson 20% to win
🏁🏆 NASCAR Cup title check-in: Kyle Larson 40% to win
🏁 F1: Gulf Air Bahrain GP in Malaysia - 3 a.m. (Apple TV) - Kimi Antonelli 30% to win
🏁🏆 F1 title check-in: Kimi Antonelli 92% to win (Driver’s) / Mercedes 96% to win (Constructor’s)
On to the next one
Now that Atlanta has moved past Philadelphia, the MLB playoffs will now move on to what used to be the entirety of the playoffs — yes, I’m old enough to remember the pre-Wild Card round postseason — with the Division Series getting underway in another quadruple-header on Saturday.
What do we expect there? Here are the current odds to advance through:
Unsurprisingly, the formidable LA Dodgers are the heaviest favorite of Round 2, with a 64% chance to beat the Braves — though that is the renewal of a very good 2010s and early-2020s rivalry, with the two teams meeting four times (with LA winning three) between 2013 and 2021. We’ll learn a lot about the Dodgers by seeing their evolving playoff-form in action finally.
Nearly as strong a favorite are the Brewers, who have a 60-40 edge over the Padres in the other NLDS matchup. San Diego could be sneaky dangerous, though, after absolutely dismantling a Cubs offense that we thought looked unstoppable earlier in the season. How well the Padres’ rotation (which ranked just 27th in WAR during the regular season) holds up against Milwaukee is the key.
The other matchups are a lot closer: Cleveland is just a 56-44 favorite over the AL Central rival White Sox, and that might be too lopsided — yes, the Guardians have home-field, but they won that division by just a single game and the Sox actually have the slightly higher Elo rating now. And the most electric series of the bunch should be the Yankees versus Rays, where New York is a slim 53-47 favorite after completely dominating their Wild Card opponent Red Sox. Tampa Bay won the season series 7-6 and outgunned NY for the division, but the market likes the Yanks’ superior pitching and the possibility that Aaron Judge returns (or that the Yankees won’t even need him, based on how well they hit off of Boston).
These should be some great matchups, and better yet, we’ll get more baseball per series now — the LDS is best-of-five, so thankfully none of this blink-and-you’ll-miss-it three-game stuff anymore.
Bye bye!
With the Wild Card round finally complete, MLB’s top seeds — again, Milwaukee and Los Angeles in the NL, Tampa Bay and Cleveland in the AL — will join the party after byes in Round 1. And believe it or not, there has actually been serious debate over whether not having to beat an extra opponent is a good or bad thing. Probabilitistically, of course, it’s obviously a good thing — each additional coin-flip means lower compounded odds of passing all trials successfully. (i.e., winning the title.) But from a baseball perspective, there’s been the question of whether rust gets a team out of its groove. Proponents of this theory could even point to struggles for bye teams during the Wild Card as evidence… well, for a while. After those early struggles, bye teams have struck back in recent years, bringing their overall record basically exactly in line with what we’d expect from the Elo ratings.
What else we’re reading
Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.
⚾ “The 2026 Alternative MLB Awards” by ritmica
🏁 “Shock car star: Brad Keselowski is all about the unexpected” by Nate Ryan
🏀 “Ode G” by Tom Piccolo
⚾ “All of the things no one tells you about the MLB Postseason” by Trevor May
⚾ “MLB’s 40-HR Club Grew in 2026, But Nobody Reached 50” by Matt Musico
Next on deck…
Monday (10/5)
🏈 Monday Night Football: Falcons at Saints
⚾ MLB Playoffs: White Sox at Guardians, ALDS Game 2
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Yankees at Rays, ALDS Game 2
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏒 NHL: Flyers at Lightning
⚽ UEFA Nations League: France vs. Belgium
Tuesday (10/6)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Dodgers at Braves, NLDS Game 3
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Brewers at Padres, NLDS Game 3
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏒 NHL: Islanders at Rangers
⚽ International Friendly: USMNT vs. Canada
Wednesday (10/7)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Guardians at White Sox, ALDS Game 3
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Rays at Yankees, ALDS Game 3
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Dodgers at Braves, NLDS Game 4 (if necessary)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Brewers at Padres, NLDS Game 4 (if necessary)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Liberty at Dream, Semifinals Game 2
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Aces vs. TBD, Semifinals Game 2
🏒 NHL: Penguins at Capitals
⚽ MLS: Fire at Whitecaps
