Trouble Brewing

Happy Tuesday! And today, baseball’s supposed favorites suddenly have some real problems: Milwaukee has pushed the powerful Dodgers into a 2-0 NLCS hole, Cleveland stole Game 1 of the ALCS in Tampa Bay, and for maybe the first time all season, Los Angeles is no longer the World Series favorite. 😳 We’ll look at how both underdogs flipped the pennant races below. Plus, Josh Allen ran wild in Monday night’s overtime thriller, tightening up the NFL MVP race, and a packed Champions League slate takes over this afternoon. Here’s what we’re watching today:

The Main Events

All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game

MLB:
⚾ ALCS: Guardians (44%) at Rays (56%) - Game 2 (CLE leads 1-0), 8 p.m. (TBS/HBO Max)
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Brewers 45% to win - One of first times all season Dodgers NOT favored

NHL:
🏒 Avalanche (52%) at Stars (48%) - 8:30 p.m. (ESPN+) - Playoff preview?
🏒 Oilers (54%) at Kings (46%) - 10:30 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒 Bruins (50%) at Sharks (50%) - 11 p.m. (ESPN+)
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Avalanche 13% to win

Football:
🏈 CFB: Delaware (53%) at Middle Tennessee (47%) - 7 p.m. (CBSSN)
🏈 CFB: FIU (43%) at Jacksonville State (57%) - 8 p.m. (ESPNU)
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: Bills 15% to win NFL title
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 21% to win national title 

WNBA:
🏀 No games. (Off-day; Dream-Valkyries Finals begins Sat., Oct. 17)
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Valkyries 52% to win 

Soccer:
⚽ Champions League: Lens (37%) at Sporting CP (37%) - 12:45 p.m. (Paramount+)
⚽ Champions League: Atlético Madrid (51%) vs. Manchester United (25%) - 3 p.m. (Paramount+)
⚽ Champions League: Arsenal (81%) at Lille (7%) - 3 p.m. (Paramount+)
⚽🏆 Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 28% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 61% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Nashville/Vancouver 22% to win MLS Cup
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Gotham/Washington 28% to win

NBA:
🏀 Preseason action (regular season starts 10/20)
🏀🏆 NBA title check-in: Thunder 24% to win

Favorites in trouble?

Just when we felt like we had the MLB postseason all figured out, the starts to both League Championship Series have upended everything we thought we knew.

In the NLCS Monday night, the Milwaukee Brewers beat the mighty LA Dodgers 7-4 to take a 2-0 lead as the series shifts to Los Angeles for Game 3 on Wednesday. That’s obviously a far cry from the overwhelming dominance expected of the Dodgers going into the postseason as they chase their third consecutive World Series title, and the market now sets the Brew Crew as roughly 70-30 favorites to win the NL pennant.

Meanwhile, the AL saw the underdog Cleveland Guardians come back from an early 2-0 deficit in Game 1, notching a couple of runs off of Rays ace Drew Rasmussen and then breaking things open late against Tampa Bay’s bullpen en route to the 7-3 final. Prediction-market traders now give Cleveland a 56-44 edge in the series.

How have the underdogs sprinted out to a 3-0 record in the LCS round thus far?

The Brewers are winning through their trademark relentlessness, their bullpen and the exploitation of a Dodger lineup that’s gone cold at the worst possible time. In Game 1, they chipped away at an early LA lead with a combination of power and small-ball tactics, ultimately relying on a ‘pen that ranked No. 2 in WAR during the regular season to shut down Los Angeles late. In Game 2, they once again had to come back — answering every Dodger score with one of their own — and they chased seemingly untouchable October ace Yoshi Yamamoto from the game after just 2⅔ innings. Overcoming some fielding mistakes that marred Logan Henderson’s start, the Milwaukee bullpen once again shut down LA over the final 4+ innings. 

Underneath all of that is a Dodgers offense that’s collectively hitting .169 with a .447 on-base plus slugging (OPS), 1 extra-base hit and 0 homers in the series thus far. Shohei Ohtani, normally a dominant force, is slumping so badly amidst lingering injury concerns — with a .411 playoff OPS — that Dave Roberts is seriously pondering sitting him for Game 3.

As for Cleveland, it’s hard to read too much into a single baseball game, but their offense continued to impress with 14 hits (2 HR) and a .916 OPS despite facing Rasmussen in Game 1. As we noted yesterday, this was not a particularly good offense (24th in park-adjusted RPG, 21st in batting WAR) during the regular season, but the Guardians are easily the highest-scoring team this postseason, as well as the only team to meaningfully improve upon their regular-season scoring output so far in October:

There’s still time for the favorites to restore order, of course. But Milwaukee is showing how dangerous their “Brewer Ball” formula can be, while Cleveland is finding a new offensive gear at exactly the right time. And now that the underdogs have leads, neither needs to be the best team on paper to win four games.

On an MVP run

As befitted a wacky NFL Week 5, Monday Night Football concluded the action with the Bills and Rams scoring more combined points in the fourth quarter (35) than they’d scored all game previously (33) — and in OT, Buffalo was rescued from a crushing James Cook fumble by a blocked Rams FG, setting up a game-winning Tyler Bass kick that brought the Bills to 4-1 on the year. As part of all that, Buffalo QB Josh Allen ran wild on the Rams, racking up 121 yards on the ground — his second-most in a game all-time, and the most he’s had since 2018 — and in turn, Allen has pulled into a de facto tie with San Francisco’s Brock Purdy in the MVP odds this season.

What else we’re reading

Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.

🏀 “Sion James and the competitive advantage of integrity” by Mike Shearer
🎾 “What will happen with the WTA, and lessons from the ATP” by Nikola Vuković
🏒 “The Philadelphia Flyers are spiraling” by Brendan Farrell
🏈 “Cooking with Keenum: How to Push the Ball Downfield with a ‘Seasoned Veteran’” by Bobby Peters
🏀 “Santa Clara Eyeing an NCAA Tournament Berth” by Elliott Crow

Next on deck…

Wednesday (10/14)
🏈 CFB: Western Kentucky at Sam Houston
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Brewers at Dodgers, NLCS Game 3
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day; WNBA Finals begin Oct. 17)
🏒 NHL: Stars at Avalanche
⚽ UEFA Champions League: Manchester City vs. Paris Saint-Germain

Thursday (10/15)
🏈 Thursday Night Football: Seahawks at Broncos
🏈 CFB: East Carolina at UAB
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Rays at Guardians, ALCS Game 3
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Brewers at Dodgers, NLCS Game 4 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏒 NHL: Rangers at Devils
⚽ UEFA Europa League: AC Milan at Red Bull Salzburg

Friday (10/16)
🏈 CFB: Memphis at Tulane
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Rays at Guardians, ALCS Game 4 🚨
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Brewers at Dodgers, NLCS Game 5 (if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day)
🏒 NHL: Penguins at Avalanche
⚽ Soccer: Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Köln