Win or go home

Welcome to Wednesday! The postseason pressure ratchets up big-time today, with all four MLB Wild Card series moving into elimination territory after yesterday’s opening slate — and two WNBA teams facing the same possibility tonight as well. We’ll wildly overreact to what each MLB Game 1 taught us below, including twin routs by the Yankees (over Boston) and Padres (over the Cubs). And we’ll look at how the WNBA title race has been blown wide open after top-seeded Minnesota was swept out by New York. Meanwhile, the NHL keeps rolling with another full night of early-season action after yesterday’s season openers. Here’s what we’re watching today:

The Main Events

All listed times are Eastern. 🚨= Elimination game

MLB:
⚾ Wild Card: Phillies (52%) at Braves (48%) - Game 2 (ATL lead 1-0), 2 p.m. (NBC/Peacock) 🚨
⚾ Wild Card: White Sox (41%) at Astros (59%) - Game 2 (CWS lead 1-0), 5 p.m. (Peacock) 🚨
⚾ Wild Card: Red Sox (44%) at Yankees (56%) - Game 2 (NYY lead 1-0), 8 p.m. (NBC/Peacock) 🚨
⚾ Wild Card: Cubs (44%) at Padres (56%) - Game 2 (SD lead 1-0), 10 p.m. (Peacock) 🚨
⚾🏆 World Series title check-in: Dodgers 30% to win

WNBA:
🏀 First Round: Dream (60%) at Mystics (40%) - Game 2 (ATL lead 1-0), 7 p.m. (ESPN) 🚨
🏀 First Round: Valkyries (62%) at Wings (38%) - Game 2 (GSV lead 1-0), 9 p.m. (ESPN) 🚨
🏀🏆 WNBA title check-in: Dream/Valkyries 25% to win 

NHL:
🏒 Penguins (44%) at Flyers (56%) - 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
🏒 Islanders (44%) at Maple Leafs (56%) - 7:30 p.m.
🏒 Kings (36%) at Avalanche (64%) - 10 p.m. (TNT)
🏒🏆 Stanley Cup check-in: Panthers 15% to win

Football:
🏈🏆 Super Bowl check-in: Bills 14% to win NFL title
🏈🏆 College Football Playoff check-in: Georgia 17% to win national title 

Soccer:
⚽ UEFA Women's Champions League: OL Lyonnes (15%) vs. Chelsea (70%) - 3 p.m.
⚽ MLS: Red Bulls (27%) at St. Louis City SC (50%) - 7:30 p.m.
⚽🏆 Champions League title check-in: FC Barcelona 27% to win
⚽🏆 Premier League title check-in: Arsenal FC 62% to win
⚽🏆 MLS title check-in: Vancouver Whitecaps FC 24% to win MLS Cup
⚽🏆 NWSL title check-in: Gotham FC 28% to win

Opening statements

On Tuesday, baseball had its version of our beloved opening-Thursday of March Madness — with high-pressure, wall-to-wall coverage for most of the day — as the Wild Card series got underway. And what did we learn? Let’s go through each series to wildly over-index on a single-game sample.

(Which, to be fair, is pretty close to being the basis for ending a team’s whole series; as we heard often yesterday, teams who win Game 1 of the Wild Card have gone on to win the series 21 times in 24 chances since 2020.)

• Braves vs. Phillies (ATL leads 1-0): Philly blew their best chance with their best reliever. Going up against Braves starter Chris Sale, the Phillies knew run-scoring would be at a premium — and they seemed to have done what they needed to win, tagging Sale for 3 runs and taking a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the 8th. But ace reliever Jhoan Duran, tasked with pitching 2 innings for just the second time all season, gave up a 3-run HR to Austin Riley that flipped the game around. Odds shift: ATL 55% → ATL 72%

• White Sox vs. Astros (CWS leads 1-0): The Battle of the Bullpens belonged to Chicago. Both the Sox and ‘Stros took the committee approach to their pitching in Game 1, and Chicago’s 5 pitchers got the better of the 8 pitchers Houston used. The Pale Hose might be a better team than people gave them credit for… or maybe the 81-81 Astros just aren’t that good. Either way, we get some real starters on the hill today at 5 p.m. Odds shift: HOU 57% → CWS 66%

• Yankees vs. Red Sox (NYY leads 1-0): Who needs Aaron Judge? In a first-round rivalry matchup that we thought was more suited for deeper in the playoffs, the Yankees absolutely routed the Red Sox in the Bronx. Starter Cam Schlittler struck out 10 and allowed just 3 baserunners in 6⅓ innings, and the Yankee bats (sans Judge) poured on 7 runs against the Sox ‘pen (supposedly a strength) in the later innings. Boston already needs a huge turnaround, fast.  Odds shift: NYY 56% → NYY 81%

• Padres vs. Cubs (SDP leads 1-0): The Cubs’ offense was AWOL. Going into the playoffs, we knew the Cubs would go as far as their hitting took them… and on Tuesday, that was not very far. Padres starter Michael King dominated Chicago’s lineup, taking a no-hitter into the 7th, and ultimately the Cubs scratched out just 3 hits (none for extra bases). It might not have mattered with Cubs pitchers Matthew Boyd and Javier Assad giving up 7 runs through 4⅔ innings, but Chicago’s batters need to look a lot less helpless today or their season is over. Odds shift: SDP 56% → SDP 79%

For all the importance we put on those single wild-card games, the top of the World Series odds picture hasn’t changed very much — the Dodgers and Brewers (and Rays and Guardians) are still waiting around on bye, after all. But the Yankees and Padres do seem to be inching closer to the top, within the tier below the Dodgers, and more performances like each had in Game 1 of Round 1 will surely help in that regard.

The missing Lynx

For the vast majority of the 2026 WNBA season, the MInnesota Lynx were on top of the league’s projections and odds; even going into the playoffs, they had nearly triple the title-odds of anyone else in the field. But a lot can change in a short period of time when best-of-3 series are involved, and the Lynx have gone from title-favorites to outright eliminated now, following a pair of blowout losses to the New York Liberty — who became the first 8-seed in WNBA history to knock off a No. 1. (Don’t say we didn’t warn you.) Where does that leave us now? Here’s the current state of the market, which is now completely wide-open with the top seed absent:

What else we’re reading

Smart, short reads we liked while building today’s odds.

⚽ “Manchester City Have Been Found Guilty. Now Comes the Complicated Part” by David Skilling
🏒 “New era of hockey in Nashville, future of key veterans” by Nick Kieser
⚾ “The Greatest Postseason in History Was Also the Beginning of the End of Baseball As We Know It” by Michael Weinreb
⚾ “Bryce Harper vs. Harmon Killebrew: What Hall of Famers look like” by Mark Kolier
💰 “What are we protecting college sports from, anyways?” by Tyler Lauletta

Next on deck…

Thursday (10/1)
🏈 Thursday Night Football: Steelers at Browns
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Red Sox at Yankees (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Cubs at Padres (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
⚾ MLB Playoffs: Phillies at Braves (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
⚾ MLB Playoffs: White Sox at Astros (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Liberty at Lynx (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Fever at Aces (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Germany vs. Serbia
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Greece vs. Netherlands
⚽ UEFA Women's Champions League: Manchester City vs. Real Madrid

Friday (10/2)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: No games. (Off-day prior to Division Series)
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Mystics at Dream (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: Wings at Valkyries (Game 3 - if necessary) 🚨
🏈 CFB: Penn State at Northwestern
🏒 NHL: Rangers at Red Wings
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Belgium vs. Türkiye

Saturday (10/3)
⚾ MLB Playoffs: ALDS Game 1 - White Sox/Astros winner at Guardians
⚾ MLB Playoffs: ALDS Game 1 - Red Sox/Yankees winner at Rays
⚾ MLB Playoffs: NLDS Game 1 - Cubs/Padres winner at Brewers
⚾ MLB Playoffs: NLDS Game 1 - Phillies/Braves winner at Dodgers
🏀 WNBA Playoffs: No games. (Off-day prior to Semifinals)
🏈 CFB: #5 Ohio State at #14 Iowa
🏈 CFB: #7 Alabama at #16 Mississippi State
🏈 CFB: #8 Florida at #25 Missouri
🏒 NHL: Blues at Avalanche
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Croatia vs. England
⚽ UEFA Nations League: Spain vs. Czechia