China could start making “substantial” purchases of US soybeans, America’s biggest agricultural export

Last year, China bought more than $12 billion worth of American soybeans. Since the summer, however, not a single bean has been shipped, one of many commodities that fell victim to the simmering trade tensions.

But China might be about to start buying American beans again. Soybean futures rose 2% to a five-month high in Chicago this morning, after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China “will be making substantial purchases” as the two countries close in on a trade deal.

For American farmers, it’s a much-needed jolt of optimism, as soybeans are the country’s biggest agricultural export — worth $24.5 billion last year — according to the USDA. 

China typically buys more than half of that total, so its absence this season has left US silos full and profits thin. Earlier this month, Washington outlined a bailout plan to help offset losses, but payments have been delayed by the government shutdown, leaving growers in limbo in the middle of harvest season.

Full of beans

If this soybean standoff feels familiar, it’s because we’ve been here before. Back in 2018, the US-China trade flare-up cut American soybean exports to China by 75% in a single year, prompting the government to roll out roughly $12 billion in emergency farm aid.

Meanwhile, China has already stocked up soybeans from Brazil and Argentina and is ramping up domestic production. Still, Bessent, himself a soybean farmer, said growers will be “extremely happy” with the upcoming deal “for this year and for the coming years,” in his interview with CBS News on Sunday.