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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Testifies Before The House Financial Services Committee
Fed Chair Jay Powell smiles (Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
(G)rate trading

This exchange owes Powell a huge thank-you for its record earnings

A big pickup in interest-rate trading buoyed CME Group’s record third-quarter results.

Luke Kawa

CEO and Chairman Terry Duffy hailed this as “the best quarter in CME Group history,” as the exchange set records for revenues generated and operating income earned, with average daily volumes spiking 27% year on year to 28.3 million.

It sure looks like Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell deserves a tip of the cap from Duffy & Co. The third quarter marked the first time in over a year that the US central bank actually did something with its policy rate — a 50-basis point reduction at its September meeting.

And at 14.9 million daily average volumes, over half of CME’s activity is tied to the interest-rate business, which is up at 36% year on year (that is, faster than its total growth).

Average daily volumes and open interest for CME Group
Average daily volumes and open interest for CME Group (Source: Company filing)

“Our SOFR complex traded over 5.9 million contracts per day in the quarter and 6.9 million per day in September, all while seeing the customer network broaden with large open-interest holders reaching a new record high in September,” Duffy said. “Opposing views of potential and actual Fed rate changes combined with ongoing high levels of issuance and deficit financing should continue to provide tailwinds for interest-rates trading.”

SOFR is the secured overnight financing rate and tracks the cost of receiving cash in so-called repo transactions (in which that borrowing is collateralized by US Treasuries), and its gyrations closely track the Federal Reserve’s policy rate. 

We’re always on the lookout for how shifts in monetary policy will influence economic activity. Will enough priced-in Fed cuts reinvigorate the housing market? Will businesses feel a little better about borrowing now that costs are lower and a soft landing looks more secure? But no, I guess fortifying the operating performance of an exchange with a lot of rate trading should’ve been the first place we looked.

However, the boost to business from a Federal Reserve that’s once again doing something with its policy rate — and causing traders to make, double down on, and abandon a variety of bets on what it will do next, and when — isn’t enough to please investors this morning. Shares are off about 1.4% as of 10:20 a.m. ET despite posting top and bottom line results that were a touch better than analysts anticipated.

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Chicago Bulls player Michael Jordan is surrounded by NBA Championship trophies after his team defeated the Utah Jazz 90-86 to win the 1997 NBA Finals at the United Center in Chicago, IL.

Stock climb on US-Iran peace deal; semiconductors rally

This morning, President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war.

markets

Intel surges after Trump announces US chip deal with Apple

Intel is soaring in early trading after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Apple has agreed to work with the semiconductor giant to design and manufacture its chips domestically.

President Trump positioned the agreement as the latest victory for his administration’s industrial policy after the federal government acquired a 9.9% equity stake in Intel last year.

"Stupid Presidents took our Economy for granted, and let Taiwan and others steal our Semiconductor Factories," Trump wrote in the post. "We design everything, but we need to BUILD it here, NOW! So I decided to help Intel because we need to design and build our Chips right here in America... and, finally, Apple has agreed to work with Intel to design and build its Chips in America."

Intel reportedly reached a preliminary agreement back in May to manufacture chips for the Apple, which has been facing supply constraints for its iPhone as well other products. The deal could help Apple reduce its reliance on longtime partner TSMC by bringing more of its chip manufacturing stateside.

"This partnership helps Apple with chip development and manufacturing on US soil with greater focus on reducing dependence on Asian manufacturing facilities." Wedbush's Dan Ives commented in a company report. He has a $400 price target for Apple this year.

The timing aligns with Intel's technical roadmap. Earlier this week, Intel confirmed that its advanced, performance-boosted 18A-P process node officially entered its risk production phase. This move serves as a blueprint for both Intel chips and processors the company plans to build for foundry customers.

“The current capacity crunch is probably emboldening customers to give Intel a harder look at this stage than perhaps they might ordinarily be inclined to do as the prospect of more advanced capacity will take on higher value in a constrained environment,” wrote Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon. “We are sure that Trump’s encouragement is at least not going to hurt though.”

Momentum was built around Intel Foundry services as surging global AI demand continuously outpaced capacity. Earlier this month, Google reportedly placed an order with Intel to manufacture more than 3 million of its increasingly popular tensor processing unit chips in 2028. According to the report, Nvidia is also testing to see if Intel could manufacture its next-gen Feynman chips.

markets

Stocks rise after US, Iran sign peace plan

Stocks rose Thursday morning after President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war, in another sign that a months-long war that caused energy prices to spike could be coming to an end.

Trump signed the MOU before a dinner in Versailles, France on Wednesday evening. The president previously announced that a deal had been reached on Sunday evening, saying that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would resume and that the US naval blockade would be lifted.

The deal comes after both sides exchanged attacks last week, escalating tensions to some of the highest levels since the US and Israel struck Iran in late February.

The price of Brent Crude ticked even lower after dropping on Sunday, sitting at about $76 a barrel. Oil giants like Shell, Chevron and Exxon fell on the news, as average gas prices in the US dropped below $4 for the first time in months.

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. Last week, inflation readings for May showed both wholesale inflation and consumer prices rose in large part because of higher energy costs.

Signs of the peace deal have also lead to buying of momentum stocks this week. iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETFrose another 1.46% in premarket trading.

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