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Trump Always Raises Tariffs

From TACO to TART? US stock futures sink as Trump threatens blanket 15% to 20% tariffs

Will markets move away from TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) toward TART (Trump Always Raises Tariffs)?

Luke Kawa

S&P 500 futures careened lower on Thursday evening after President Donald Trump suggested that he’s mulling blanket tariffs of 15% to 20% (versus the current 10%) in an NBC interview.

That was shortly followed by a Truth Social post from the president imposing tariffs of 35% on imports from Canada effective August 1, though this reportedly includes an exemption for USMCA-compliant goods, per Bloomberg. Trump also told NBC that EU members will be getting tariff letters today.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF, which tracks the benchmark US equity index, is down about 0.6% in premarket trading on Friday.

The “Trump Always Chickens Out” or (TACO) thesis has largely carried the day in explaining the market’s continued resilience ever since the April 9 pause and watering down of reciprocal tariffs vindicated buy-the-dip strategies.

To be clear, that includes what’s happening now, so far: S&P 500 futures are down not even 1% from all-time highs. Without the April imposition of tariffs and swift postponement of the worst of those measures, an announcement like Thursday night’s would likely have evoked a much more negative market reaction.

TACO is a thesis that’s worked incredibly well, zooming in on our recent lived market experience.

Zooming out, TART — Trump Always Raises Tariffs — is another enduring reality that investors have to navigate when the real estate mogul and former reality star is in residence at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

When Trump is in office, US tariff rates go up. And they’ve gone up much, much more during Trump 2.0 (through May!) than they did in the totality of Trump 1.0.

“While the TACO phenomenon is narrowly correct (i.e. the president does tend to postpone decisions), it may also be turning increasingly obsolete (for focusing too narrowly on short-term implementation deadlines rather than the long-term trajectory of US tariff rates),” Andrew Bishop, Signum Global Research’s global head of policy research, wrote in a prescient July 8 note.

Whether this reality is enough to leave a bigger dent in the outlook for S&P 500 profits (with 12-month forward earnings at all-time highs) or multiples (at the high end of their long-term range) is something that traders will continue to wrestle with over the coming days and weeks.

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

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US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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