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Intel rises again, riding a wave of Trump support and Apple speculation

Intel is up again early Wednesday, coming within spitting distance of two-year highs, after comments from the president fed into stock market murmurs about the prospect for Apple to become a key customer for Intel’s ailing contract chip-manufacturing business.

In off-the-cuff comments to reporters Tuesday, President Trump took a victory lap over Intel’s rally since the US government’s investment in August.

“The stock went very up, and very high and we made tens of billions of dollars,” Trump said, adding that “as soon as we went in, Apple went in, Nvidia went in, a lot of smart people went in. They followed us.”

Nvidia took the unusual step of buying a $5 billion stake in Intel in September. But it’s unclear what Trump meant by “Apple went in.”

The comment is consistent with market speculation that Apple — another company whose operational decisions Trump has pressured and influenced — could become a key customer for the next-generation chipmaking technology known as 18A. Intel has bet billions on 18A in an effort to resuscitate its ailing contract chip-manufacturing business, known as a foundry. But the chipmaker has yet to land a key customer willing to let it make its chips with the new process.

In a note published this week, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh said he believes that Apple will be a key customer for 18A, but no announcement about any deal has been made.

So was Trump confused? Did he let something important slip? Was it merely a bit of Trumpian puffery? All unclear.

What is plain, however, is that investors are taking cues on what to buy based on the deep personal involvement of an intensely stock market-sensitive US president.

It might not be the ideal of free market capitalism. But in Intel’s case, it does seem to make the number go up, at least so far.

“The stock went very up, and very high and we made tens of billions of dollars,” Trump said, adding that “as soon as we went in, Apple went in, Nvidia went in, a lot of smart people went in. They followed us.”

Nvidia took the unusual step of buying a $5 billion stake in Intel in September. But it’s unclear what Trump meant by “Apple went in.”

The comment is consistent with market speculation that Apple — another company whose operational decisions Trump has pressured and influenced — could become a key customer for the next-generation chipmaking technology known as 18A. Intel has bet billions on 18A in an effort to resuscitate its ailing contract chip-manufacturing business, known as a foundry. But the chipmaker has yet to land a key customer willing to let it make its chips with the new process.

In a note published this week, KeyBanc analyst John Vinh said he believes that Apple will be a key customer for 18A, but no announcement about any deal has been made.

So was Trump confused? Did he let something important slip? Was it merely a bit of Trumpian puffery? All unclear.

What is plain, however, is that investors are taking cues on what to buy based on the deep personal involvement of an intensely stock market-sensitive US president.

It might not be the ideal of free market capitalism. But in Intel’s case, it does seem to make the number go up, at least so far.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” writes Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a longstanding exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders aren't fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

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POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

markets

GE Aerospace falls after leaving earnings guidance unchanged

Jet engine maker GE Aerospace slid in early trading Tuesday, as its better-than-expected Q1 results were overshadowed by uninspiring guidance.

It reported:

  • Q1 adjusted revenue of $11.61 billion vs. the $10.71 billion consensus expectation.

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $1.86 vs. the $1.60 consensus estimate.

But management left full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance where it was at between $7.10 and $7.40, compared to a consensus expectation of $7.49 from analysts.

“Were holding our full-year guidance across the board, given the macro uncertainty, though, with our strong start to the year, we are trending toward the high end of that range,” CEO Larry Culp said on the conference call.

GE Aerospace hit an air pocket in March as the start of the US war against Iran sent energy prices soaring and hurt expectations for the profitability of commercial carriers. A rally in April had pushed the stock close to positive territory for the year, but it’s solidly in the red after the results today.

markets

Trump says he doesn’t like potential United-American merger but would “love somebody to buy Spirit”

President Trump on Tuesday told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea of a United Airlines-American Airlines merger, but would “love somebody to buy Spirit.”

“Maybe the federal government should help that one,” Trump said on Tuesday, referring to Spirit’s attempts to emerge from bankruptcy.

Trump’s thoughts on United-American are an update from last week, when White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the potential megamerger was “not something the president or the White House have an ​opinion on or are weighing in on.”

American and United shares dipped following Trump’s comments, as did Spirit rival Frontier Airlines.

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