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Luke Kawa6/24/25

Nasdaq 100 posts first record closing high since February

We’re so back.

The Nasdaq 100 ended Tuesday above its previous peak of 22,175.60 from February 19 to set a new closing record.

The tech-heavy gauge, which is tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, entered a short-lived bear market amid the breakdown of AI-geared momentum trades and the announcement of onerous tariffs earlier this year. That ended on April 8, thanks to the more than 20% gain from that time through early June after levies on imports were watered down or put on ice.

The AI trade has recovered, in accordance with Wall Street’s expectations. The DeepSeek-induced shock faded with hyperscalers doubling and tripling down on their massive capex plans and tech companies booking multibillion-dollar deals with entities in the Middle East as sovereign AI spending stepped up to offer more support for the boom.

Palantir is the best-performing stock in the index this year, with other prominent names like Micron, Netflix, Constellation Energy, and DoorDash also in the top 10.

The Nasdaq 100 is a teensy bit more expensive than it was at the time of its prior record high, but 12-month forward earnings expectations for the index are nearly back at a high and have risen by more than profit estimates for the S&P 500 year to date.

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Caterpillar spikes as AI boom fuels demand for engines and turbines

Caterpillar is soaring in early trading after reporting Q1 results that crushed estimates.

The industrial bellwether reported revenues of $17.42 billion (compared to analyst estimates for $16.24 billion) with adjusted earnings per share of $5.54 (estimate: $4.63).

Behind every chatbot trying to figure out how many R’s are in strawberry is a data center in need of energy, and Caterpillar’s power generation business has been on a tear thanks to this demand.

“A record backlog provides a strong foundation for continued positive momentum,” Chairman and CEO Joe Creed said in the press release.

The industrial giant, like GE Vernova, is among the so-called “heavy assets, low obsolescence” companies that have been cashing in on the AI boom, rather than being disrupted by it.

The firm’s earnings report noted that in its power generation business, “sales increased in large reciprocating engines and in turbines and turbine-related services, primarily data center applications.”

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Equinix drops after Q1 results disappoint and boost to full-year sales guidance falls short of expectations

Equinix is falling in early trading after reporting underwhelming Q1 results.

Revenue of $2.44 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $1.25 billion came in modestly below expectations, and the data center REIT’s full-year guidance wasn’t as sunny as analysts had anticipated.

Management cited strong demand from AI and cloud workloads, record bookings, and a growing backlog in raising its full-year outlook for sales to between $10.14 billion and $10.24 billion. However, the midpoint of that range still falls a little short of Wall Street’s $10.22 billion estimate.

The data center REIT had surged about 42% year to date going into earnings, making it the top performer in the S&P 500 REIT industry group. After outperforming peers by more than 30% in 2026, it seems investors had little appetite to forgive any missteps.

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Hertz surges after announcing autonomous fleet partnership with Uber

Hertz is up over 15% in premarket trading Thursday on news that its affiliated operating company, Oro Mobility, is partnering with Uber to manage autonomous vehicle fleets. That means Oro will support Uber’s autonomous Lucid robotaxis with “charging, maintenance, repairs, cleaning, and depot staffing” in the San Francisco Bay Area later this year.

The deal also expands into driver-led fleet operations, with Oro operating vehicles — and in some cases employing drivers — on Uber’s platform, a shift toward more centralized, fleet-based ride-share models.

Uber, which exited developing its own robotaxi technology in 2020, has recently positioned itself at the center of the robotaxi push through partnerships.

Hertz and Uber Partner to Power Autonomous Robotaxi and Driver-Led Fleet Operations

The deal also expands into driver-led fleet operations, with Oro operating vehicles — and in some cases employing drivers — on Uber’s platform, a shift toward more centralized, fleet-based ride-share models.

Uber, which exited developing its own robotaxi technology in 2020, has recently positioned itself at the center of the robotaxi push through partnerships.

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Blue Owl jumps after posting better-than-expected Q1 fee-related earnings

Blue Owl Capital shares rose around 5% premarket after the company reported Q1 results that signal its broader business is resilient in the face of some stress in private credit markets.

The key numbers:

Assets under management of $314.9 billion (estimate: $315.4 billion).
Fee-related earnings of $393.6 million (estimate: $383.5 million).

Ahead of earnings, analysts flagged expectations for a softer quarter driven by weaker fundraising and elevated redemptions, particularly in Blue Owl’s retail-focused private credit vehicles. Those funds have been a key growth engine but also a pressure point as investors seek exit liquidity that the asset manager has been unwilling to provide in full. Based on the reaction, much of that concern may have already been in the price.

Shares of the stock have slumped more than 40% year to date, with Blue Owl emerging as a proxy for broader concerns across the $1.8 trillion private credit market. Redemption requests have surged in recent months, at one point exceeding 40% in one fund and more than 20% in another, forcing the firm to gate withdrawals and sell assets to return capital.

The pressure has also been amplified by the firm’s exposure to software borrowers, where investors are increasingly questioning how AI could reshape the industry’s earnings durability and loan performance.

During Blue Owl’s February earnings call, however, co-CEO Marc Lipschultz said there were no “red flags” or “yellow flags” in its tech portfolio.

Judging by the price action in recent months, and what its peers are saying, that statement might be overly optimistic. Earlier this week, publicly traded private credit fund Ares Capital Corp marked down the value of loans to three software businesses by up to $0.18 in its Q1 report, which helped push net unrealized losses up to $357 million.

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US national average gas price has jumped to $4.30, according to AAA, the highest level since July 2022

On Thursday morning, the American Automobile Association (AAA) reported that the national average gas price in the US had risen to $4.30 per gallon — the highest level seen since July 2022 — as the global energy crisis continues to trickle down to consumers.

The fresh pain at the pump comes as more oil supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to drive up Brent crude prices, where front-month futures contracts just hit a four-year high, with the international benchmark briefly topping $126 a barrel. Unsurprisingly, if that level holds, it would be hard to foresee gas prices going anywhere but further up, given the two are so intrinsically linked.

Gas Prices Crude 04/30 — Sherwood News

With the Strait of Hormuz likely to remain blockaded as a result of the ongoing conflict, analysts are predicting that the national average gas price could hit $4.50 per gallon in the next week or two. Indeed, Gas Buddy’s Patrick De Haan forecast prices reaching as high as $5 a gallon by Memorial Day, and up to $6 a gallon by later in the summer, saying, “Nothing’s impossible at this point.”

However, according to AAA data, gasoline prices have already topped $6 a gallon in California, marking the highest level since October 2023. For context, no other state has ever surpassed the $6-a-gallon mark, with Bloomberg reporting that the price in the state was $4.64 a gallon at the outset of the war.

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