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Oracle executive chairman and CTO Larry Ellison.
(Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Why Wall Street is unbothered by any margin weakness in Oracle’s GPU rental business

The stock has bounced all the way back.

Luke Kawa

When Advanced Micro Devices reached a megadeal with OpenAI at the start of the week, Wall Street went bananas and the shares did too, with more than 20 analysts raising their price targets in the 24 hours following the announcement.

When The Information put out a report on Tuesday saying Oracle’s GPU rental business had a fairly low profit margin, shares dipped and Wall Street responded by doing... absolutely nothing.

Not a single brokerage polled by Bloomberg has changed its rating or price target on shares of the hyperscaler in the wake of this news. And that’s seemingly for good reason: the stock has completely erased Tuesday’s drop!

Mizuho Securities called Tuesday’s tumble “a buying opportunity,” while Guggenheim added that early returns may be fairly soft, but “it’s reasonable to expect any deal to be at least 25% gross margin over its life — or Oracle wouldn’t sign it.”

While profitability challenges in the early stages of a ramp are far from uncommon, competing on price is an old hat for Oracle in particular. Back in 2017, founder, chairman, and CTO Larry Ellison detailed plans to grow its cloud business by matching Amazon Web Services’ list prices while offering speedier compute, enticing customers with the assurance that “your bill will drop by half” if they switched over. And earlier this year, the company offered very preferential pricing for government agencies.

The profitability metric reported by The Information “isn’t much of a surprise to us as the company has historically looked to undercut competitors’ pricing — as it’s done for its cloud services business,” Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Anurag Rana and Andrew Girard wrote. “We don’t expect Oracle to make changes to its pricing strategy near term as this has enabled it to capture share. Oracle can also leverage its higher-margin software and database segments to offset the pressure.”

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

markets

POET Technologies surges above $10 for first time in 4 years amid explosion in call volumes

POET Technologies is up nearly 40% this week as options market activity goes haywire in a faint echo of what got the stock on retail traders’ radars in October.

As of 11:12 a.m. ET, more than 10 calls have changed hands for every put traded. This bullish impulse has propelled the stock above the $10 threshold for the first time since March 2022.

Shares of the optical communications firm briefly dipped last week after Wolfpack Research said it was short the company because its investors would be exposed to an “IRS tax nightmare.”

The company responded that day saying it was taking measures for US shareholders that “should mitigate certain potential adverse US federal income tax consequences to it that could otherwise result from the Company’s status as a passive foreign investment company.”

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