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Weed stocks rally on cannabis reform hopes

Federal cannabis reform is an issue that’s found itself somewhat politically homeless.

J. Edward Moreno

Cannabis companies are rallying amid continued optimism that President Trump will deliver for the industry and pass federal weed reform.

Canadian cannabis companies like Tilray, Canopy Growth, and SNDL Inc. all rallied on Monday as momentum around cannabis rescheduling picks up. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that Trump was “considering” reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug, and since then several of his political allies have thrown their support behind the issue.

Under former President Biden, the Department of Justice announced in April 2024 that it would recommend reclassifying marijuana, though that process has lagged. Under the current regulatory scheme, American cannabis operators struggle with limited access to banking, an unfriendly tax code, and high levels of debt without the benefit of bankruptcy protections.

Analysts appear to be growing bullish: Jefferies raised its price target for Tilray from $1.50 to $2.00 on Friday, and SNDL’s lone analyst from ATB Capital Markets raised their target from $2.26 to $4.50 on August 18.

Notably, the aforementioned Canadian cannabis companies do not currently sell pot in the US, but they have in various ways positioned themselves as able to quickly set up distribution channels in the event that the regulatory landscape eases up. Those companies have struggled to grow within Canada and have expanded to international markets, such as Europe.

Rumors (of which there have been several) regarding changes to the regulatory scheme for marijuana have been one of the largest catalysts for price movement in weed stocks. But federal cannabis reform is an issue that’s found itself somewhat politically homeless.

Democrats have typically been more sympathetic to the issue, but most of them represent places where it’s already legal on a state level. Republicans have historically been more aligned with moral arguments against weed reform, but in recent years it has garnered support, though it remains less than a top priority for both parties at a federal level.

Jerry Derevyanny, a partner at cannabis investment firm Bengal Capital, said it’s still unclear exactly what move the administration will make on cannabis. Anything short of a proposed final rule on rescheduling is unlikely to make much of a difference for these companies.

“I’m like a beaten puppy — I’m too scared to be optimistic anymore,” he told Sherwood News. “I think investors will rally a bit and then you’ll get a pullback as investors realize things aren’t coming as soon as they expect.”

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Lululemon’s stretch getting tested: Stock plunges after after outlook is cut

Lululemon shares are down double digits in premarket trading after the company cut its full-year sales and profit outlook, overshadowing a Q1 beat and raising fresh concerns about the brand’s turnaround efforts.

The company now expects fiscal 2026 revenue to be flat to down 1%, compared with its prior forecast for 2% to 4% growth. Guidance for full-year diluted earnings per share was dragged down to a range of $10.95 to $11.15, below the company’s previous guidance of $12.10 to $12.30 and well below Wall Street’s estimate of $13.26.

Key numbers for Q1:

  • EPS of $1.69 vs. the $1.68 expected.

  • Revenue of $2.47 billion vs. the $2.43 billion expected.

The modest top-line beat masked a widening divergence between Lululemons geographic markets. While international revenue rose 22% overall with a 30% increase in Mainland China, the bigger problem remains North America, where revenue fell 5%.

Interim co-CEO and CFO Meghan Frank acknowledged during the earnings call that recent product rollouts underperformed. A highly anticipated yoga campaign failed to generate its expected halo effect across broader product lines.

Profitability metrics took a major hit, with gross margins contracting by 410 basis points to 54.2% due to mounting tariff costs and promotional markdowns. Operating income consequently fell 37% year over year to $276.9 million.

“We experienced spikes of negative commentary in the media and on social channels with regard to our brand, which had an impact on traffic and overall top-line performance,” Frank said during the earnings call. “And second, not all of our product launches have met our expectations. While we have had several successful launches so far this year, we have seen others as we start Q2 not generate the anticipated guest response.”

Lululemons valuation has already been steadily compressing for years. While it was once one of retails richly valued stocks, investors have been questioning whether the company can return to the double-digit growth era.

The results also arrive during a leadership transition. Lululemon announced back in April that former Nike executive Heidi ONeill is set to take over as CEO in September, with investors looking to her to revive growth in North America and restore the brands growth.

As Lululemon faces both macroeconomic pressure and brand-specific challenges, its stock has dropped around 40% year to date.

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US job growth skyrocketed in May, blasting past expectations

The US economy added 172,000 jobs in the month of May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday, sending 10-year Treasury yields higher.

The strong May job market surprised economists. Experts had predicted only 85,000 new jobs — just half the reported number. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, as expected.

The job growth story is a hopeful spot for the economy as consumers continue to feel inflationary pressure from the Iran war.

Job gains were buoyed by the leisure and hospitality sector, which added 70,000 jobs, as well as local government, healthcare, and education.

Both the March and April jobs reports were revised upward, making them collectively 93,000 higher than previously reported.

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