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Weed stocks rally on cannabis reform hopes

Federal cannabis reform is an issue that’s found itself somewhat politically homeless.

J. Edward Moreno

Cannabis companies are rallying amid continued optimism that President Trump will deliver for the industry and pass federal weed reform.

Canadian cannabis companies like Tilray, Canopy Growth, and SNDL Inc. all rallied on Monday as momentum around cannabis rescheduling picks up. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month that Trump was “considering” reclassifying marijuana as a less dangerous drug, and since then several of his political allies have thrown their support behind the issue.

Under former President Biden, the Department of Justice announced in April 2024 that it would recommend reclassifying marijuana, though that process has lagged. Under the current regulatory scheme, American cannabis operators struggle with limited access to banking, an unfriendly tax code, and high levels of debt without the benefit of bankruptcy protections.

Analysts appear to be growing bullish: Jefferies raised its price target for Tilray from $1.50 to $2.00 on Friday, and SNDL’s lone analyst from ATB Capital Markets raised their target from $2.26 to $4.50 on August 18.

Notably, the aforementioned Canadian cannabis companies do not currently sell pot in the US, but they have in various ways positioned themselves as able to quickly set up distribution channels in the event that the regulatory landscape eases up. Those companies have struggled to grow within Canada and have expanded to international markets, such as Europe.

Rumors (of which there have been several) regarding changes to the regulatory scheme for marijuana have been one of the largest catalysts for price movement in weed stocks. But federal cannabis reform is an issue that’s found itself somewhat politically homeless.

Democrats have typically been more sympathetic to the issue, but most of them represent places where it’s already legal on a state level. Republicans have historically been more aligned with moral arguments against weed reform, but in recent years it has garnered support, though it remains less than a top priority for both parties at a federal level.

Jerry Derevyanny, a partner at cannabis investment firm Bengal Capital, said it’s still unclear exactly what move the administration will make on cannabis. Anything short of a proposed final rule on rescheduling is unlikely to make much of a difference for these companies.

“I’m like a beaten puppy — I’m too scared to be optimistic anymore,” he told Sherwood News. “I think investors will rally a bit and then you’ll get a pullback as investors realize things aren’t coming as soon as they expect.”

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Vertiv drops after offering uninspiring Q2 guidance, overshadowing solid Q1 beat

Shares of Vertiv Holdings dropped as much as ~6% in early trading on Wednesday after the data center equipment’s better-than-expected Q1 numbers were overshadowed by uninspiring guidance.

For the quarter ended, March 31, 2026, Vertiv reported:  

  • Q1 adjusted earnings per share of $1.17 vs. the $1.00 consensus expectation from analysts surveyed by FactSet.

  • Sales of $2.65 billion vs. the $2.64 billion expectation (compiled by FactSet).

  • For Q2, Vertiv expects adjusted earnings of between $1.37 and $1.43, coming in below the $1.43 consensus estimate at its midpoint.

  • Q2 guidance for Vertiv net sales of $3.25 billion to $3.45 billion also vs. Wall Street’s call for $3.40 billion.

Vertiv, which listed in February 2020 as a result of GS Acquisition Holdings Corp., a so-called blank-check company, merging with private equity-owned Vertiv Holdings, has soared over 300% over the last year through Tuesday’s close, as investors have rushed to snap up shares of companies poised to collect some of the hundreds of billions of dollars in spending that the hyperscalers are pouring into the data center build-out. 

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Adobe rises on $25 billion stock buyback

Adobe was up as much as 3.5% in early trading on Wednesday after the company announced a share repurchase plan worth up to $25 billion, signaling to investors that company management sees retiring shares as a prudent use of capital at these levels. The stock has been down more than 60% since Feb 2024, largely on concerns that AI tools will disrupt the company’s business.

The new authorization, which Adobe detailed will extend through April 30, 2030, “is a direct expression of confidence in our robust cash flow and the long-term value we are delivering to investors,” said CFO Dan Durn in a press release.

Indeed, fears that new agentic models could affect demand compounded when Anthropic unveiled Claude Design last week, sending the company’s shares down on the announcement. Adobe released a series of AI-enabled customer service functions shortly after. Rival Figma, which Adobe was set to acquire before the deal was blocked by regulators, has also been under pressure.

Adobe is also not the only spooked software company proposing new buyback plans to bring investors back, joining Salesforce, which actually issued debt to buy back shares in a programme of the same size ($25 billion).

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United beats Q1 earnings and revenue estimates, lowers full-year profit guidance amid surging jet fuel prices

United Airlines reported its first-quarter earnings results after the bell on Tuesday. The carrier’s shares ticked down in after-hours trading.

For Q1, United reported:

  • Adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share, compared to the Wall Street estimate of $1.08 per share compiled by FactSet.

  • $14.6 billion in revenue, compared to the $14.39 billion consensus estimate.

In the first quarter, United’s fuel expense grew 12.6% from the same period last year to $3.04 billion.

For the second quarter, United expects adjusted earnings per share of between $1 and $2, shy of Wall Street expectations of $2.08. For the full year ahead, United said it expects earnings between $7 and $11 per share, compared to its prior guidance of between $12 and $14 per share.

“Guidance assumes United’s revenue recovers 40% to 50% of the fuel price increases in the second quarter, 70% to 80% of the fuel price increases in the third quarter and 85% to 100% of the fuel price increases in the fourth quarter 2026,” read the company’s investor update.

Earlier this month, United was among the first major US airlines to hike its bag fees amid higher fuel costs. Its shares have fallen more than 15% from a February high days before the war in Iran began.

United has also made waves this month following reports that CEO Scott Kirby had floated the idea of a merger with American Airlines to President Trump. A merger between two of the big four airlines would create a true US behemoth, controlling more than a third of the American market. American Air last week said it wasn’t interested in merging with United and hadn’t held talks on the idea. On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he doesn’t like the idea either.

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Hedge funds are following retail traders into the Magnificent 7

Hedge funds are following retail traders into the stocks the masses never stopped buying.

“As we kick off earnings for megacap tech stocks, this stood out: [hedge funds] have started buying Mag7 stocks again this month though positioning remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2016,” wrote Goldman Sachs’ Cullen Morgan.

Goldman PB Mag 7
Source: Goldman Sachs

In early April, JPMorgan strategist Arun Jain noted that retail investors had basically been selling everything but the Magnificent 7 stocks as part of a more cautious stance due to the Iran war.

(Apple has been a long-standing exception to this trend, presumably because retail traders arent fond of its hands-off approach to AI.)

JPM Retail flows

Last August, Jain discussed how retail activity tended to “crowd in” institutional buyers in meme stocks, while Goldman’s John Marshall advised clients to piggyback on stocks beloved by retail traders. Speculative, retail-geared assets proceeded to go on a tremendous run that soured in October.

But there are some early indications that a similar bout of speculative fervor is bubbling up once more.

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