Hey Snackers,
We here like to spend the weekend blowing off steam with our friends after a week of hard work at our desks. Turns out we’re not alone in that; a new study found multiple instances of groups of orcas getting together to ram into sunfish so hard that they explode. Yes, there is video. One orca holds the sunfish while another swims into it at high speed, causing the unfortunate 10-foot-long, 4,400-pound fish to explode. The orcas may be pulverizing the sun fish to quickly break it into bite sized pieces, but researchers also think that they might just be doing it for fun.Â
Brent crude futures closed over $100 for the first since late May as threats between the US, Iran, and Yemen’s Houthis escalated and stocks fell as megacap shares dropped in the wake of Alphabet and Tesla’s earnings announcements. The S&P 500 closed down 1.3% and the Nasdaq 100 slumped just under 1.9%.Â
US airlines had an amazing quarter with sky-high demand. Then their fuel bill wiped it out.
Flying this summer is expensive. Running an airline might be worse.
American Airlines, Alaska Air, and Southwest all reported earnings this week and results show that they are paying a lot more to get those travelers off the ground. The war-driven spike in jet-fuel prices is swallowing much of the airlines’ profit driven by higher travel demand and ticket prices, turning what would otherwise have been strong quarters into shrinking profits, guidance cuts, and, in Alaska’s case, a $76 million loss.Â
American Airlines cut its full-year earnings outlook again on Thursday as higher fuel costs outweighed much of the benefit from stronger fares. The carrier posted a record $16.7 billion in quarterly revenue, up 16.3% from the same time last year, as its international and domestic demand remain strong.Â
American Airlines' fuel expense surged 83%, or more than $2.2 billion. The airline now expects full-year adjusted results somewhere between a loss of $0.65 cents a share and a profit of $0.65, cutting its previous range of a $0.40 loss to a $1.10 profit.Â
They’re not alone. Alaska Air grew revenue 10% to $4.1 billion, while premium, cargo, and corporate revenue all posted double-digit gains. But its fuel price soared 85% to $4.43 a gallon, adding $600 million in costs and helping swing the company from a $172 million profit last year to a $76 million loss.
Southwest increased revenue by more than 16%. Still, its fuel bill rose by $889 million, knocking $1.17 off adjusted earnings per share and prompting the airline to lower its full-year profit forecast.
Volatile fuel markets have been complicating ‌earnings forecasts for airlines, as renewed US-Iran tension clouds the outlook for oil and jet fuel costs.
Brent crude, the key global benchmark, closed over $100 a barrel Thursday for the first time since late May after Yemen’s Houthis said they struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, the Associated Press reported, widening concerns about disruptions to two major shipping routes. US crude climbed more than 5% to above $91 a barrel.
THE TAKEAWAY
Fuel is airlines’ biggest expense after labor, and this earnings season shows how quickly it can eat through the benefits of strong demand and higher fares.
Major carriers are counting on some relief in the third quarter. But with Brent back over $100 in the wake of fresh attacks on oil tankers, those forecasts remain vulnerable to a conflict airlines have little control over.
Snacks Shots
🏛️ 2026 Midterms: With just a few months to go until the midterm elections, markets are currently pricing in an 80% chance that Democrats retake the House of Representatives and just a 56% chance that Republicans maintain control of the Senate.
🎮 Gaming: Right now the game to beat for Game of the Year is the (hopefully launching 2026) “Grand Theft Auto VI” with a 65% chance of victory, but February’s “Resident Evil Requiem” and the buzzy September release “Control Resonant” have been rising steadily from a combined chance of 5% back in February up to a 21% combined chance now.Â
*Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.
What else we’re Snackin’
The Failure Gap: A 2026 research paper dives into how people regularly underestimate the probability of failure, including the rate of restaurant closures, TSA screening misses, and even the rate that sports teams lose.Â
What just happened to TheNumbers.com should worry us all: how AI scraping is killing independent websites.
Wall Street is worried about Netflix's new shows. Its old ones are its secret weapon.
Tesla falls 15%, Alphabet sinks 7% as AI spending concerns spook investors
Snack Fact of the Day
At the height of the state’s homeowner insurance crisis, Florida was at one point responsible for 80% of homeowner lawsuits against insurance companies nationwide.
Friday
 American Express, NextEra Energy, Verizon earnings (before the bell)