💊 Novo pops a pill

Is Novo Nordisk’s’s losing streak coming to an end? 

Novo is getting a boost from its Wegovy pill, which has been flying off the pharmacy shelves since it came to market in January. In the first quarter of this year, sales for the drug were nearly twice what Wall Street was penciling in. 

It’s been the biggest GLP-1 debut by volume ever. According to Novo, the pill has now reached over 5 million total prescriptions and it's only accelerating: it took 12 weeks to reach its first 1 million patients, but its latest 1 million were added in just a month. A big chunk of that has been through its direct-to-consumer platform. 

“We are more and more ourselves getting surprised [by] how many people are after a pill rather than an injection, frankly,” CEO Mike Doustdar told analysts on August 5.

It’s a bright spot in an otherwise gloomy picture for the Danish pharmaceutical company. Novo has increasingly lost ground to its rival, Eli Lilly, in the lucrative injectable weight loss and diabetes drug market, which still accounts for the vast majority of GLP-1 prescriptions. 

Eli Lilly — despite having the best-selling drug in the world, Mounjaro and Zepbound — has had an underwhelming debut for its weight loss pill, Foundayo. The drug, which came to market in April, brought in $98 million in revenue in the second quarter, less than the $103 million the Street was expecting. 

While its pill may not be a blockbuster (yet, at least), the company’s next-generation injectable drug, retatrutide, has had impressive results in clinical trials. So impressive many people aren’t even waiting for FDA approval to start taking it.

It’s worth noting that all signs suggest the introduction of oral GLP-1 options has expanded the population of patients on these drugs, meaning they likely aren’t taking away sales from injectables already on the market. 

The Takeaway

While Novo was early to the GLP-1 market with Ozempic, it has spent the past year or so living under Lilly’s shadow. The Wegovy pill has certainly changed the vibe for Novo. 

Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management, which holds both Lilly and Novo, said the biggest question is if Novo will be able to get the pill to as many patients who want it. The company has had issues with manufacturing capacity in the past.

“That all comes down to execution though, and Novo has seen headwinds in ramping up scale to compete with their larger peers,” Mulberry said. 

- J. Edward Moreno

That’s how much revenue Korean biotech L&C Bio Co. — which uses human fat to fix “Ozempic face” — plans to make by 2030, per Bloomberg.