__At least AriZona cans still cost 99 cents...__ While the iced tea has been [sold](https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/06/09/arizona-iced-tea-beverages-price-inflation-economy-qmb-vpx.cnnbusiness) for $0.99 for [three decades](https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/06/09/arizona-iced-tea-beverages-price-inflation-economy-qmb-vpx.cnnbusiness), the global economy has been steeped in #flation. We'll see the latest when June's US consumer price data comes out Wednesday. May’s wasn’t pretty: prices were up 8.6% from last year. For context, annual US inflation [averaged](https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/compensation/pages/annual-inflation-hit-40-year-high-in-may.aspx) less than 2% from 2010 to 2019.

- __’Flation = a global fixation.__ In May, South Korea's inflation [hit](https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Inflation/South-Korea-inflation-hit-nearly-24-year-high-in-June#:~:text=Statistics%20Korea%20said%20the%20consumer,%25%20and%20restaurants%20climbing%208%25.) a 24-year high, the UK's [surged](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/uk-inflation-hits-91-may-2022-06-22/) to a 40-year high, and Turkey had [73%](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/03/turkeys-inflation-soars-to-73percent-as-food-and-energy-costs-skyrocket.html) inflation (not a typo).

__The balloon might be shrinking...__ Central banks have been raising interest rates to depress prices. Last week, the Fed indicated it’ll need to speed up rate hikes if the inflation outlook worsens. But as recession fears grow, we're seeing signs prices could cool:

- __Oil's dropping:__ This is a biggie, since oil powers everything from your deliveries to your grocery store's fridge bill. Oil had its steepest one-day drop since March last week, and US gas prices dropped 21 days in a row — the longest down-streak in over two years.
- __Ditto raw materials:__ Prices of commodities like cotton, lumber, and copper — used in everything from motors to homes and jewelry — have plunged since May.
- __Inventory's growing:__ From __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ to __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__, large retailers are drowning in inventory — and trying to sell it at a discount. Price-slashing could ease ’flation.
- __Tariffs could be cut:__ The US imports a lot from China (think: gadgets, clothes, metals). Now President Biden may ease some of the tariffs boosting costs on $300B worth of Chinese goods.

Who’s popping the inflation balloon? (PM Images/Getty Images)

Unflate

__Anti-’flation may be more of a whimper…__ than a *whoosh*. We’re starting to see pinholes in the inflation balloon. One example: consumer spending [fell](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/15/retail-sales-may-2022-unexpected-0point3percent-decline-hammered-by-inflation.html) in May as higher rates and prices strained savings. But services inflation (like wages and labor) is still rising [sharply](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-service-sector-inflation-threatens-commodity-prices-2022-07-07/). Not great for prices, since services make up 60% of US consumer spending. But now even the labor market is slowly cooling — bad for the economy, but potentially good for prices.

From falling oil prices to rising inventory, we’re seeing signs that the inflation balloon might be deflating (slowly)

__Blockchange...__ Crypto's revolutionary ambitions are being questioned. Activists started [talking](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/14/style/abortion-crypto-donations.html) about using decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) to financially support people seeking abortions after the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade leaked in May. Two months later, a __CowgirlDAO__ has raised $40K+ and __ChoiceDAO's__ aiming to raise $1M. But some crypto fans say this has been a [missed opportunity](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/07/05/crypto-fundraising-after-end-of-roe-tepid-so-far/) to fulfill blockchain tech's anti-[censorship](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3JA1v5bdIfQh45Djc5Yp0M/) promises. 

__Midsummer splurge…__ Bonus season is making a bonus appearance as some employers dish out extra dollars to retain workers. Last week, __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PTON)__ [doled](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/06/peloton-sweetens-employee-pay-incentives-as-it-fights-to-boost-morale.html) out one-time bonuses. Last month, Exxon's US employees got a bonus payout worth 3% of their salaries. And in May, __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ announced plans to nearly [double](https://www.shrm.org/resourcesandtools/hr-topics/compensation/pages/microsoft-to-nearly-double-salary-budgets-expand-stock-compensation.aspx#:~:text=Microsoft%20Corp.%20said%20it%20plans,help%20people%20cope%20with%20inflation.) its budget for raises. Since nearly [three-fourths](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/09/more-pay-raises-are-on-the-way-for-many-workers-this-year.html) of workers say their salary won’t keep up with inflation, a bonus may not be enough to retain talent. Now a third of employers are [considering](https://www.wsj.com/articles/bosses-offer-midyear-raises-to-retain-employees-as-inflation-takes-toll-11657013401) midyear raises.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching…

__At least the Biscoff cookies are free…__ __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL)__ drops earnings on Wednesday, at a time when “upsell” revenue has [surged](https://www.barrons.com/articles/airlines-upsell-amenities-revenue-51656705554) to make up 15% of sales for airlines (think: extra legroom, early boarding, $5 headphones). Delta lost $780M last quarter, but was profitable in March as pricey airfares and packed flights offset fuel costs. Still, Delta and others are struggling to meet hot summer demand (which is back around pre-pandemic levels) as labor shortages persist. We’ll see whether [thousands](https://www.cbs46.com/2022/06/17/delta-among-us-airlines-with-highest-number-weekend-delays-cancellations/) of delays and cancellations hit Delta’s earnings. 

__Watching that credit-card APR rise like...__ that’s a lot of interest. All eyes are on big-bank earnings this week, with __[Citi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/C)__, __[Wells Fargo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WFC)__, __[BlackRock](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BLK)__, __[Morgan Stanley](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MS)__, and __[JPMorgan](https://robinhood.com/stocksJPM)__ dropping #s. Big-bank profits fell in the first quarter, and a looming econ downturn could add to their troubles. Think: less revenue from deal-making, trading, and loans (mortgage lending has dropped as rates rise). JPMorgan cut [hundreds](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/22/investing/jpmorgan-layoffs-mortgages/index.html) of employees in June, and more Wall Street layoffs are likely. Analysts expect earnings to come in slightly lower than initially forecast.

Events

Coming up this week…

- __[Nev](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6fyXoeZno4t269xTNw1jzf/articles/5f8KqZiY4LTXCBfwyLanAT/):__ __[Tesla’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ quarterly deliveries fell for the first time in years as it dealt with global production woes and mounting competition from Chinese “new energy vehicle” companies like Buffett-backed BYD.
- __[Grub](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/UxtWGudOOkV9B9gUKjB19/articles/1SrYK6oDA7ev3IgLt9Gsaq/):__ __[Amazon’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ giving Prime members a year of Grubhub+ (think: free delivery, discounts) to help justify its recent 17% Prime price hike. It’s part of a "subscription squared” strategy to keep subs loyal. 
- __[Thieve](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3pu2eqXGgxUzOO2TUmyO9U/articles/XJSmBGfRmia6WTOddX2TI/):__ Hackers stole $9M from DeFi protocol __Crema Finance__ but returned $8M, which Crema let them keep as a "white-hat bounty” reward. “Hack to return” crimes are rising as crypto laundering gets harder.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights…

From falling oil prices to rising inventory, we’re seeing signs that inflation could cool

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

Joey Chestnut won his 15th Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest by downing 63 wieners (and buns) in 10 minutes

⬇️ Anti-’flation signals

__$450K to take off…__ even space-flation is getting high (a ticket to the edge of space cost “only” $250K last year). __[Virgin Galactic](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPCE)__ shares jumped 12% after it announced it’s teaming up with __[Boeing](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BA)__ subsidiary Aurora Flight Sciences to build two space-tourism carrier planes (dubbed: “motherships”). Virgin's mothership flies the spacecraft to its launch point, where the engine separates and launches passengers into space.

- __Frequent flier:__ Virgin's "Delta class" ships will take off weekly once they start flying customers (ETA: 2026), so it’ll need more than the one mothership it has now.
- __Double dip:__ Boeing already has a deal with rival __SpaceX__ to [build](https://www.vox.com/recode/23142055/boeing-spacex-starliner-rocket-crew-dragon) space capsules, but an alliance with Virgin could [generate](https://www.barrons.com/amp/articles/virgin-galactic-boeing-space-motherships-51657196690) billions of additional revenue.

__Dinner rez on the ISS…__ Last year was huge for space tourism, as billionaires like Bezos strapped up in spacesuits (and cowboy [hats](https://www.gq.com/story/bezos-space-hat)) to fly VIPs. Last month, __[Amazon’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ Blue Origin launched its fifth space-tourism flight. Meanwhile, SpaceX has launched four crewed flights since last year — but Virgin has just one. 

- __*Long* layover:__ Econ struggles are starting to curb some enthusiasm. In May, Virgin pushed its first commercial space flight to early 2023 — its [second](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kimberleespeakman/2021/10/14/virgin-galactic-delays-commercial-flights-to-end-of-2022-after-spotting-potential-materials-flaw/?sh=1e92c9dcb0eb) delay.

Extra space seats (Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images)

Ship

__Taking off is easier in twos…__ Virgin’s deal with Boeing could help it save money on pricey motherships while scaling its biz faster. Getting ahead is key, since the space-tourism market is expected to nearly triple to $3B by 2028. But $$ may still be up and far away for companies like Virgin. The stock’s down 90% from records, and it's TBD when, or if, it’ll become profitable.

Virgin Galactic and Boeing team up on the next gen of “motherships” as space tourism revs up

__Sorry and you’re welcome...__ Hackers stole $9M from DeFi protocol __Crema Finance__ over the weekend. But in a world full of crypto heists, the real surprise is what came next: they [returned](https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2022/07/07/crema-finance-attacker-returns-almost-8m-keeps-17m-bounty/) all but $1.7M of it. It wasn’t sheer generosity: in return for most of the stolen funds, Crema called the $1.7M a "white-hat bounty” (aka: a non-criminal reward for finding a security flaw). A trend is emerging where hackers steal crypto only to return a large portion. We’re calling it “hack to return.” 

__All carrot, no stick...__ Crypto exchanges, platforms, and protocols that find themselves on the receiving end of hacks are trying a new approach to getting their money back: asking nicely. It sounds odd, but hackers are increasingly on board — that’s because making a deal often means being let off as a flaw-finder instead of hunted as a criminal:

- __Optimist:__ Hackers stole $16M worth of tokens from an __[ethereum](https://robinhood.com/crypto/ETH/)__ layer 2 called __Optimism__ in June, but later returned $14M worth, keeping the rest as a bounty. 
- __Altruist?__ A hacker stole $600M from the __Poly Network__ in August, but gave it back in return for a promised $500K bounty (the nickname: "Mr. White Hat").

Webthieve

__It's getting harder to clean dirty crypto...__ Blockchain analytics companies like __Chainalysis__ are getting better at tracking stolen funds, making it difficult for hackers to launder and anonymously cash out. (Just ask "[financial rapper](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7ycuKKAK4DhlIJ1iFIBRCe/articles/3uR2Sq93Mjj65EyqhxCEXV/)” Razzlekhan, arrested in connection with a $4.5B crypto heist in February.) The hack-to-return trend is an outcome of a $945B industry that's seemingly easy to rob, but whose unofficial cops never lose sight of the getaway car. Sometimes it's easier for hackers to toss most of the cash out the window, and keep what they can move with.

Crypto hackers steal $9M, then give most of it back, in the latest instance of “hack to return”

Investment in US startups is down 23% over the past three months — the biggest drop since 2019

🚀 Virgin’s “mothership” deal

__Joining le chat…__ Big Tech’s power is being reeled in over in Europe. On Tuesday, European Union lawmakers [passed](https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-lawmakers-pass-landmark-tech-rules-enforcement-worry-2022-07-05/) regulation aiming to stop tech giants from playing favorites with their own products (think: __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ apps on the App Store, Basics on __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__). The Digital Markets Act (DMA) covers a lot of ground, including banning Amazon from using third-party seller data to inform its own products. Most notably, it could break Apple’s App Store monopoly. 

- __Apple’s core:__ The DMA could [force](https://www.theverge.com/2022/3/25/22996248/apple-sideloading-apps-store-third-party-eu-dma-requirement) Apple to let Euro customers download apps directly from developers, instead of only through the App Store.
- __Profit pit:__ Apple raked in about $86B through its App Store last year, since it takes a 15 to 30% cut of paid downloads, subscriptions, and in-app purchases. 
- __Sliced and diced:__ Companies that violate the DMA could be hit with fines totaling 10% of annual global sales.

__iOStressed…__ The DMA could disrupt more than just app downloads. The regulation says consumers must be allowed to choose their own digital assistant (sorry, Siri) and mandates that messaging platforms like iMessage and __[Meta’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ WhatsApp be able to communicate with each other (read: group-chat chaos). European lawmakers aren't playing around.

App-ocalypse now? (Drew Angerer/Getty Images)

Eurout

__Regulation matters, but enforcement is key…__ Huge fines mean tech behemoths will be forced to pay attention. But attention isn't the same as compliance, and regulation is sure to be followed by *litigation*. The EU's task force will have 80 officials, but pro-regulation lawmakers say more heads are needed to fight Big Tech's lawyers — so don't count the App Store’s dominance out just yet.

The EU passed strict antitrust rules that threaten Big Tech’s status quo — including Apple's App Store dominance

__Same-day TP delivery…__ with a side of mozz sticks. Amazon’s taking a bigger bite out of the food-delivery biz after announcing a 2% stake in Grubhub yesterday. Refresher: Grubhub was [scooped](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1Nve3vhlByq10W74UeVgUP/articles/4pdmA56EqHRt47CYsEk4tx/) up by European delivery giant __Just Eat__ in 2020, but Just Eat is trying to [sell](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/36fBoHhcd4FMlxtriYB5p0/articles/4yNtNelQ0okw74M04h5Luf/) the US-based biz as the delivery race heats up. Now:

- __Prime rib:__ Amazon’s 200M+ Prime members can access a free year of Grubhub+ ([valued](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/travel/is-grubhub-plus-worth-it#:~:text=Grubhub%2B%20is%20a%20%249.99%2Dper,matching%20for%20No%20Kid%20Hungry.) at $10/month), including free delivery and members-only discounts.
- __Zero loyalty:__ Shares of __[DoorDash](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DASH)__ sank 7% and __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ dropped 5% on fears that Prime members could ditch those food-delivery services for Grubhub.
- __Perk’d up:__ UK delivery staple __Deliveroo__ said memberships [quadrupled](https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-could-turn-grubhub-into-a-tastier-meal-11657115118) in February after Amazon rolled out a similar Prime perk [last](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/15/amazon-and-deliveroo-deepen-ties-with-prime-food-delivery-bundle.html) year.

__Strolling to the bookstore...__ Amazon’s sales have slumped as shoppers cut back on online spending. Last quarter, the Zon [posted](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/28/technology/amazon-earnings.html) its slowest quarterly growth in decades. Grubhub delivery perks could help justify its recent 17% Prime price hike while boosting subs. It’s easier to lean on partnerships than create perks from scratch: in 2019 the Zon ditched its Amazon Restaurants delivery biz as hot competition bit into profits.

Grub

__The "subscription-squared" model is here...__ First we had credit-card companies offering __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ Pink and DashPass subs as perks. Now we have paid subscriptions like Prime offering *other* paid subs as perks. Think: Hulu [offering](https://time.com/nextadvisor/credit-cards/hulu-subscriber-uber-eats-access/) subscribers free Uber Eats Passes for six months. These partnerships let consumers enjoy several perks at a lower price — and help subscription partners keep customers loyal longer.

Amazon sweetens Prime perks with free Grubhub subscriptions to combat shopping slowdowns — and keep members loyal

The EU passed regulations that threaten Big Tech’s status quo — including Apple's app dominance

US gas prices dropped 21 days in a row — the longest continuous downward streak since April 2020

🇪🇺 Apple’s Euro problem

__Model Less...__ Tesla's streak of record quarterly deliveries is over. For the first time in over two years, __[Tesla’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ deliveries *fell* from the previous quarter. The big T delivered 254,695 cars during the quarter that ended in June — [fewer](https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-vehicle-deliveries-tumble-after-china-factory-shutdown-11656779597) than expected and down by nearly 60K from the previous quarter. A few reasons for the slowdown:

- __China's Covid crackdown:__ The zero-tolerance policy hurt Shanghai output. Tesla had to halt production at its largest factory for weeks because of citywide lockdowns.
- __Global growing pains:__ Tesla’s having trouble ramping up production at its newest factories, in Germany and Texas, which Elon has [called](https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-calls-teslas-new-car-factories-gigantic-money-furnaces-11655934078?mod=article_inline) “gigantic money furnaces.” 

__NEV-er say never...__ Tesla's still the leader in battery-only EVs, but its stock has fallen 42% this year as rivals edge closer to the Technoking's lead. On the one hand, Tesla’s dealing with mounting electric competition from auto OGs like __[Volkswagen](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VWAGY)__, __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__, and __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__. On the other, it's dealing with rising EV and “new energy vehicle” (NEV) companies, especially in the key market of China.

- __"New energy":__ The term China uses to denote plug-in vehicles eligible for gov’t subsidies. That includes battery-only vehicles (like Tesla) and hybrid plug-ins and fuel-cell cars. 
- __Dethroned?__ __BYD__, a Chinese car company backed by Warren Buffett, has [surpassed](https://www.ft.com/content/b600a20f-562e-4b4d-bf45-c32e8a0dd03a) Tesla as the world's largest EV producer by sales. The catch: [not all](https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-byd-world-largest-electric-vehicle-seller-51657013911) its vehicles are battery-only. Many are hybrid plug-ins. Still: *all are NEVs.*

EVs take a cross-continental cruise (Shen Chunchen/VCG via Getty Images)

__New energy could be Tesla’s new enemy…__ While Tesla’s famous for its battery-only whips, plug-in hybrids have a battery *plus* a regular engine for longer journeys — but are still considered “zero emission” under China’s sales rules. That means they get the benefit of less #RangeAnxiety but just as much subsidy support. That flexible NEV status helped BYD quadruple deliveries to 641K cars in the first half of the year, compared to Tesla’s 565K.

Tesla’s quarterly deliveries fall for the first time in years, as “new energy vehicles” come for its battery-powered throne

__Tapas & track pants…__ __[Lululemon’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LULU)__ taking its athleisure biz to Spain — its first new European market since 2019. Shares of the legging legend [jumped](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LULU) 8% yesterday after it announced plans to open two brick-and-mortar stores in Barcelona and Madrid this fall. Lulu is also set to debut a Spanish e-comm site this month as it expands its global footprint. 

- __Poised passport:__ Lulu has 40 stores in 8 European countries, including France and Germany, but earns [most](https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/07/04/nike-lululemon-which-stock-buy-right-now/) of its sales from North America.
- __Tourist hotspots:__ As recreational travel rebounds, Lulu’s eyeing Europe’s top destinations (think: Paris’ Champs-Élysées and Italy) as expansion targets.

__Layover leggings…__ in every color. Lots of pandemic thrivers have seen slowing growth as “normal” life returns, but Lulu fans are *still* splurging on $80 sports bras and biker shorts. Last year Lulu’s sales popped to a record $6B (beating rival __[Under Armour](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UA)__). And Lulu boosted *this year’s* sales outlook to $7B+ after sales grew 32% last quarter.

- __By adding Spain__ to its portfolio, Lulu’s building on a key pillar in its long-term growth plan (dubbed: “Power of Three x2”) to double [revenue](https://corporate.lululemon.com/media/press-releases/2022/04-20-2022-113017957) by 2026.
- __Lulu’s “PoT” strategy__ includes quadrupling international revenue and doubling sales for its e-comm and emerging men’s biz.
- __So far so good:__ Lulu’s brand appeal has helped it [gain](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/20/lululemon-lulu-announces-new-5-year-targets-at-analyst-day-2022.html) more global market share than any other active apparel brand since 2019.

Euro

__To find your base, you may have to leave home…__ Lulu’s already crushing it at your outdoor mall — now it’s going for splurge-happy tourists. It’s not forsaking its core North American customer base, just finding them where they’re most likely to spend. Lulu could attract wealthy regulars on long layovers, but also new foreign customers who’ve seen it hyped on Insta.

Lululemon stretches its global footprint into Spain, aiming for wealthy Euro travelers away from home

Tesla’s quarterly deliveries fall for the first time in years, as NEVs come for its EV throne

“Minions: The Rise of Gru” raked in $125M over the holiday weekend — a July Fourth box-office record

🔋 Tesla’s broken streak

__Big Tech in the spotlight...__ Since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, a giant question mark [looms](https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/06/28/1055044/big-tech-data-privacy-supreme-court-dobbs-abortion/) over how tech companies will handle users’ abortion-related data and content on their platforms. (FYI: Nearly half of US states are expected to ban or limit abortion — and 13 already have.)

- __On the privacy side:__ People worry that authorities could subpoena data in states where abortion is outlawed, and use it as evidence in criminal cases.
- __On the moderation side:__ Some worry that platforms that ban posts promoting illegal activities (think: illicit drugs, violence) could also remove content promoting abortion access.
- __On the record:__ __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__, __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__, __TikTok__, and __Reddit__ have been [mostly silent](https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/06/28/1055044/big-tech-data-privacy-supreme-court-dobbs-abortion/) over how they’ll handle abortion-related data and posts. On Friday, __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ [said](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/07/01/google-abortion/) it would delete user location history for abortion-clinic visits. 

__Sensitive info...__ Each year, tech companies receive [thousands](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/tech/big-tech-abortion-data-law-enforcement/index.html) of requests for user data from local, state, and federal law enforcement — and they typically [comply](https://www.newsweek.com/big-tech-complied-85-government-requests-handed-over-data-first-half-2020-1603070) with the vast majority of requests. Meanwhile, most big tech companies have policies outlining how they moderate illegal content.

- __Data:__ Officials in abortion cases could request info on everything from Facebook messages to Google location data to ovulation-kit purchases on __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__. Period-tracking apps are already [scrambling](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5ZLbGyCLy5Igs64hYabEGH/articles/1XVjJSYjY0TjkIrCtWNaSW/) to anonymize user data over concerns it could be used in criminal cases.
- __Content:__ [Section 230](https://www.wired.com/story/section-230-is-a-last-line-of-defense-for-abortion-speech-online/) of the Communications Decency Act protects tech companies from being held legally liable for content posted on their platforms. Still, they often remove content that violates their policies. Abortion could fall under policies banning illegal or violent content.

Uncharted territory (Jasmin Merdan/Getty Images)

Policy

__This could be tech's greatest social challenge...__ Tech behemoths have been [vocal](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6rQxav0JzUbQrqjCGQUctf/articles/5lkvy7s3VbJ2mvGazcGWRY/) about supporting abortion access for their employees, with companies like __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__, __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__, __[Salesforce](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CRM)__, and __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ saying they will (or already do) cover employee travel expenses for abortions. But it's unclear how these companies will handle the subject of abortion access when it comes to *users* — especially since they may have to comply with state laws. Last week President Biden said the US would protect women seeking abortions across state lines — but much hangs in the balance.

Privacy and moderation: After the Roe reversal, tech companies are grappling with how to handle abortion-related data and posts on their platforms

__Pill panic…__ Lots of people want Plan B. After SCOTUS struck down the federal right to abortion two weeks ago, many people [stockpiled](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/27/style/plan-b-stockpile-roe-abortion.html) morning-after contraception pills like Plan B, fearing further limits to reproductive care. __[CVS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVS)__, __[Rite Aid](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RAD)__, __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__, and Amazon even temporarily limited pill sales per person to prevent shortages. Generic morning-after pills are available online, but Plan B dominates the market thanks to exclusive deals with __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__ and Walmart. Plan B costs $50/pill, and the private-equity firms that own the drug earn profit margins as high as 85%. 

__Birkins on the blockchain…__ While the crypto crash continues, designer labels are using blockchain tech to combat the counterfeit biz — which lost them [$98B](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/26/business/aura-blockchain-luxury-counterfeit-hnk-spc-intl/index.html) worth of sales in 2017 alone. Last year, LVMH and Prada [launched](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/26/business/aura-blockchain-luxury-counterfeit-hnk-spc-intl/index.html) Aura, the first luxury-focused blockchain that creates digi-certificates for millions of items to ensure authenticity. Now the trackable tech is expanding beyond fashion: __[Mercedes-Benz](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DMLRY)__ and Hennessy joined the club this year. But the tech isn’t foolproof (and requires a good relationship with suppliers), so mainstream-ification could take a while.

Stories we’re watching...

__Waiting for the report card…__ All eyes are on the June jobs report, which drops Friday. In May we saw a fork [emerge](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6rYFJikIJGJqGBMLMHm9Rj/articles/22EwadiOkAKe5Q5pJOYPXv/) in the labor market as leisure, hospitality, and travel companies couldn’t hire fast enough, while tech companies downsized. On the plus side: nearly 95% of jobs lost to the pandemic have been filled, and unemployment’s low. Not-so-plus side: now that spending’s cooling and recession fears are heating up, job cuts are spreading beyond tech. Last week pharma giant __[Novartis](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NVS)__ and __[JPMorgan](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JPM)__ announced layoffs, with more cuts expected on Wall Street. 

__The economy’s gettin’ creaky…__ but business is runnin’ smoothly at __[WD-40](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WDFC)__. Sales of WD’s signature use-it-for-just-about-anything lubricating spray [soared](https://s21.q4cdn.com/612895086/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/Q4-FY21-Press-Release-FINAL.pdf) last year as people tackled DIY home projects. Then WD used its pandemic profits to grease its global wheels: sales and profits jumped last quarter despite dwindling home-improvement projects thanks to rising sales abroad. The lube legend still expects earnings to rise this year, despite sky-high prices for oil (a main WD-40 ingredient). We’ll see how smoothly things are running when WD reports Thursday.

Coming up this week...

- __[Ruled](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6rQxav0JzUbQrqjCGQUctf/articles/5lkvy7s3VbJ2mvGazcGWRY/):__ As nearly half of US states move to restrict or ban abortion, big corporations are stepping in to offer employees financial support. Some are trying to be the “fourth branch” of government — but it may not pan out. 
- __[Coaled](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1894aHFyK3xA7bKiUzBNbg/articles/7mEzG19Hq0eppopkwgPe0T/):__ SCOTUS also [struck down](https://www.wsj.com/articles/supreme-court-limits-environmental-protection-agencys-authority-11656598034?mod=hp_lead_pos1&mod=business_lead_pos1) an EPA plan to require power plants to cut emissions — a blow to environmental regulators and a boost for coal companies. The precedent could usher in an era of deregulation.
- __[Sky](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5ZLbGyCLy5Igs64hYabEGH/articles/6WXOwecovqFzMEnk28ncDF/):__ Rare-whiskey collections are selling for ludicrous prices at airport duty-free stores (think: $816K). Designer bags, watches, and collectibles are also appreciating as the wealthy invest in nontraditional assets.

Last week's highlights...

After the Roe reversal, tech companies grapple with how to handle abortion-related data and posts

The US Continental Congress declared its independence from Great Britain on July 2, 1776 — but the Declaration of Independence wasn’t adopted until the 4th

Tech’s Roe problem

__See ya later, regulator…__ The US Supreme Court just dealt environmental regulators a hefty blow. Yesterday, SCOTUS [struck down](https://www.wsj.com/articles/supreme-court-limits-environmental-protection-agencys-authority-11656598034?mod=hp_lead_pos1&mod=business_lead_pos1) an EPA plan to require power plants to cut emissions. (FYI: the plan didn’t have traction anyway.) The court said that regulations with sweeping economic consequences were invalid unless OK’d by Congress. That sets a precedent that could reshape relations between companies and regulators.

- __Bad news for Biden,__ whose climate agenda relies on the EPA. With Congress split, the president relies heavily on federal agencies for enforcement. 
- __Good news for coal companies__ like __[Peabody Energy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BTU)__, __[Glencore](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GLNCY)__, and __[Arch Resources](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ARCH)__, who now get an emissions hall pass. Many coal stocks have soared this year on high energy prices. 

__Light(er) green…__ The ruling comes as green investment has been losing steam. After outperforming the S&P 500 in last year’s bull market, ESG (aka: environmental, social, and governance) funds have [underperformed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/34FDmnLHYiY52nfOf5RPi2/articles/1xeNLcA6O6rx5dxUJRCDcL/) in this year’s downturn. Meanwhile, climate-ambitious companies like __[BlackRock](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BLK)__ and __[Volkswagen](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VWAGY)__ have scaled back their sustainability goals in response to the energy crisis.

- __Green pause:__ Experts expect the ruling to further delay the renewable transition, which could cut into sales for companies like __[Tesla](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__, __[JinkoSolar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JKS)__, and __[ChargePoint](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CHPT)__. 
- __Pump pass:__ Fossil-fuel big shots like __[Shell](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SHEL)__, __[Chevron](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVX)__, and __[Exxon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/XOM)__ could benefit from growing demand and shrinking regulation.

A coal-fired power plant in West Virginia (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Coaled

__An era of deregulation may be dawning…__ and it goes beyond power plants. The EPA likely won’t be the last federal authority targeted by this emboldened court. Last year, SCOTUS stopped the CDC from halting pandemic evictions and prevented OSHA from mandating corporate vaxxes. With regulators hobbled and Congress stuck, corporations could push for a rollback of other profit-curbing rules.

The Supreme Court limited the EPA’s emissions enforcement power — and other agencies could be next

__When DAOs become CAOs...__ Imagine if a bunch of ants got together to form a colony without a queen — *and ended up managing billions in assets*. That’s kind of like DAOs (aka: decentralized autonomous organizations), crypto communities where token holders have decision-making power. But a new [report](https://blog.chainalysis.com/reports/web3-daos-2022/) has found that 10 major DAOs sort of have a queen after all: fewer than 1% of token holders control 90% of voting power. This centralization has consequences:

- __So long, Solend:__ The DAO behind a __[Solana](https://robinhood.com/crypto/SOL/)__-based lending protocol voted to take over Solend’s largest user’s wallet in mid-June — but 88% of the vote came from a single crypto address. 
- __Second try:__ The Solend DAO appeared to realize centralization wasn’t a good look and reversed itself with a second vote. Still, the reputational damage to DAOs was done.

__Don’t let me DAO...__ As crypto winter hits, centralized points of failure are rearing their heads. And it’s not just DAOs. Crypto lender __Celsius’__ DeFi play imploded, and then it unilaterally [froze](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/74Rmw5VlxBTIazWlkKzrHf/articles/3f7BisGSpk0jgZKhOePwTn/) customer withdrawals (a rather centralized move for the “innovators of decentralized finance”). Meanwhile, some of crypto's main players see consolidation as key to success:

- __Fire sale:__ [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/30/ftx-closes-in-on-a-deal-to-buy-embattled-crypto-lender-blockfi-for-25-million-in-a-fire-sale.html) reported that Crypto exchange __[FTX](https://robinhood.com/crypto/FTT/)__ was in talks to buy crypto lender __BlockFi__ at bargain-basement prices. Last valued at $4.8B, BlockFi could go for $25M (womp). 
- __Bi-now:__ The world’s largest crypto exchange, __[Binance](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BUSD/)__, is ready to gobble up struggling competitors, [eying](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/binance-ceo-says-company-eyes-50-to-100-deals-130807491.html) “50 to 100 deals.”

__Crypto has a centralization problem...__ Crypto promoters have long rallied behind the value of decentralization — it's the “D” in “DAO” and “DeFi,” after all. But investigation, combined with a market downturn, reveals increasing centralization. Read: crypto nest eggs are ending up in fewer and fewer baskets. That may need to change for crypto winter to bloom into a decentralized spring.

Crypto's hyped decentralized decision-making orgs may not be so decentralized after all, calling their purpose into question

SCOTUS curbed the EPA’s emissions enforcement power — and other agencies could be next

Ketanji Brown Jackson just became the first Black woman to serve on the US Supreme Court 

💨 SCOTUS vs. the EPA

__“What can I do to get you in this F-150?”…__ Ship it to me. Car dealers fear their biz model may disappear as auto giants like __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__ sell more cars directly to buyers — and cut out the dealerships who make money as go-betweens. This week Ford CEO Jim Farley [met](https://www.wsj.com/articles/fords-talk-of-new-ev-selling-rules-rattles-some-dealers-11656504003?mod=business_lead_pos6) with 300 dealers to cool their concerns. 

- __Ford wants to sell 100% online:__ what Farley told investors this month. The goal: save $$. Farley said __[Tesla’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ direct sales model (think: Tesla stores) saves corporate $2K/car.
- __Bye, “sell, sell, sell”...__ hi, “service, service, service.” Farley says dealers will still play an important role in the car game — but more as service providers, less as salespeople. 

__Separation of car and dealer…__ the auto industry’s equivalent of separation of church and state. For decades, “franchise laws” have forced automakers to sell cars through third-party dealers for antitrust reasons. But since 2013, Tesla has gotten several states to pass special laws that allow direct EV sales, sidestepping intermediaries. 

- __Mimicking Tesla’s model:__ EV startups __[Rivian](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RIVN)__, __[Lucid](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LCID)__, and __[Polestar](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PSNY)__ also sell cars directly online and in company showrooms, ditching the dealerships.
- __Joining the EV-olution:__ Ford, __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__, __[VW](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VWAGY)__, and Jeep parent __[Stellantis](https://robinhood.com/stocks/STLA)__ have all started selling EVs directly to consumers online.

“This truck was made for you” (Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

__It takes time to ditch old models…__ and dealers may not go down quietly. By 2030, auto execs expect that half of cars sold in the US will be EVs — and they’re betting *direct* sales will be an important channel. But unlike Tesla, legacy automakers like Ford and GM have to manage disgruntled dealers as they transition to direct sales. Pricey lawsuits could pile up, especially if big retailers like __[AutoNation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AN)__ and __[Penske](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PAG)__, which own thousands of dealerships, get involved.

As carmakers like Ford shift to selling directly to drivers, dealerships may lose the steering wheel

__Ketchup in aisle three…__ or not. Yesterday, __[Kraft Heinz](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KHC)__ said it would temporarily [stop](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61978595) supplying __[Tesco](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSCDY)__ — the UK’s largest grocery chain — with its signature Heinz pantry products (think: ketchup, baked beans). There’s beef: Heinz wants to hike its prices to cover rising costs, but Tesco wants to keep prices attractive for its customers. Long story short: they couldn’t agree.

- __Price-sensitive:__ In 2016, Tesco briefly [removed](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSCDY) some __[Unilever](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UL)__ products from its website after the Dove parent tried to hike some of its prices by 10%.
- __Tooth-sensitive:__ In February, Tesco [blamed](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60316980) “short supply” for why __[Colgate’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CL)__ toothpaste products weren’t in stock. But analysts say it was [over](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60316980) pricing disagreements. 

__Don’t spill the tea…__ It costs a small fortune. Across Europe, consumer prices are hitting records as households struggle to afford everything from energy bills to cereal. Last month, nearly [half](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61920559) of adults in the UK cut back on supermarket shopping, and it’s [starting](https://www.wcvb.com/article/largest-grocery-chain-says-shoppers-buying-less-switching-to-store-brands/40312059) to happen in the US too. But grocery chains across the pond are taking different approaches:

- __In the US,__ where food spending has remained relatively stable, grocery chains aren’t doing much to keep prices in check. Instead, we’re seeing smaller Doritos and Fruity Pebbles packages as food giants #shrinkflate to avoid higher price tags — or use [creative](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/jtHnqwq8xydDjbgiulBNB/articles/6u4NsfgUX9a28K4g5NZ4JS/) ways to sell the same products at a premium. 
- __In Europe:__ Grocery chains like France’s __Leclerc__ are taking on extra [costs](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/PbfDGtpHVvDV3e1fKrQWi/articles/6OnamPp5yxj6ClnNZTUevH/) to “price shield” hundreds of popular products (think: pizza, pasta) so that customers keep spending.

Catsup

__Inflation has “checks and balances”…__ Price hikes allow food companies like Heinz to offset rising costs while keeping staples on the shelves. But by *not accepting* higher prices, grocery stores can keep shoppers spending and prevent them from turning to rivals. These checks and balances could help lower inflation — but a lot more checking will be required.

Heinz is pulling its famous condiments from the UK's largest grocery chain as price wars escalate overseas

As Ford and others shift to selling directly to drivers, dealers may lose the steering wheel

“Top Gun: Maverick” is the first Tom Cruise flick to rake in $1B at the box office

🚗 Ford follows Tesla

__Ditched the app...__ But probably not the data. People are deleting their period-tracking apps in response to the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Social media posts have [sparked](https://www.newsweek.com/why-delete-period-tracking-app-roe-v-wade-ruling-sparks-panic-data-1719167) fears that menstruation data could be subpoenaed by authorities in states where abortion is outlawed and used as evidence in potential criminal cases. Now, fertility apps are [taking steps](https://www.wsj.com/articles/period-tracker-apps-aim-for-anonymity-following-roe-v-wade-decision-11656202089) to anonymize user data.

- __Flo,__ the #1 period-tracker, said it’ll launch a feature called “Anonymous Mode” to give users the option of removing their personal info.
- __Clue,__ another popular period and fertility app, saw a [2,200%](https://techcrunch.com/2022/06/27/consumers-swap-period-tracking-apps-in-search-of-increased-privacy-following-roe-v-wade-ruling/) boost in downloads over the weekend after saying that it won't share sensitive data with states.
- __Natural Cycles,__ the first FDA-approved birth-control app, is trying to build a “completely anonymous experience for users.”
- __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ says data from its popular health app already can't be shared or sold since it's end-to-end encrypted.

__Sensitive info…__ Millions of women, transgender, and nonbinary people rely on these apps to help them track their periods, avoid pregnancy, or become pregnant. But unlike data shared with healthcare providers, data from health apps isn’t typically HIPAA protected. Now, app developers are scrambling to ensure that they don’t have user-specific info to share in the first place.

Tracking raises new concerns(Toronto Star / Getty Images)

Tracked

__Fertility could be the next frontier…__ in the privacy wars. Sharing and selling app data is a long-standing (and long-criticized) practice, usually done for ad purposes. Now, it’s not just period apps that could be caught in the privacy thorns: there’s a possibility that prosecutors [could](https://www.axios.com/2022/06/27/tech-companies-roe-v-wade-data-privacy) seek data on everything from pregnancy test purchases at pharmacies to ovulation kits on __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ — and potentially even messaging and location data from social apps like __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__.

Period-tracking apps scramble to anonymize user data over concerns that states could use it in potential abortion cases

__Duty-free essentials…__ Perfume and hundred-year old bourbon. Global duty-free sales are up 34% from peak pandemic as returning travelers make pre-flight purchases — *tax free.* But one product is winning in terminals: whiskey accounts for the largest share of the duty-free liquor market, with shoppers even flying to specific airports [for](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevinrozario/2022/06/27/duty-free-retail-continues-to-attract-highly-coveted-scotch-whiskies-and-set-records/?sh=345655731256) coveted collections.  

- __$817K:__ How much one collector paid for a set of the high-end __Macallan__ Six Pillars Scotch whiskey at Dubai’s International Airport
- __$500K:__ What one traveler paid at Istanbul's airport for an ultra-rare Japanese whiskey in January..

__Birkin-vested...__ High-end malts aren’t the only luxury products prospering at duty-free and other stores. Demand for luxe goods in general has been soaring. 

- __Designer bags:__ Chanel’s classic Medium Flap bag is $2K pricier now than it was in January 2021. Hermes’ Birkin bag prices rose 38% in 2020. 
- __Luxury watches:__ Are a hot commodity as [demand](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-05-25/supply-chain-latest-rolex-shortage-sees-demand-for-other-luxury-watches-jump) outpaces supply. A Rolex could [cost](https://www.gearpatrol.com/watches/a675756/rolex-prices/) 10% more than last year, and annual returns for Rolly collectors popped 33% last year. 
- __Vintage cars:__ A used 1986 __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__ Bronco will [run](https://www.hotcars.com/these-classic-cars-prices-have-skyrocketed-in-2022/) you 48% more than last year — and nearly 3X more if it’s in excellent condition.

Whi-sky

__When stocks go south, alt-investments can rise…__ The ultra-rich have the luxury of turning to non-traditional assets (think: fine art, collectibles) to store cash during econ downturns. But over [half](https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/many-drawn-to-alt-investing-survey-finds-but-risks-await) of all Americans are interested in alt-investments. Now, startups like __Vinovest__ and __Masterworks__ are giving more people a chance to invest in a high-end wine or a Bansky painting — without spending six figures. But like traditional investments, alt-investments carry risk. Prime example: alt-investment crypto has tanked along with the stock market.

"Whiskey-vesting" is driving record sales for duty-free liquor brands as demand for alt-assets gains steam

Period-tracking apps scramble to anonymize user data over concerns it could be used to prosecute abortion cases

Tampax raised pay at its only US factory to $25/hour, but still can’t hire enough workers as the tampon shortage continues

📱 Period data privacy

__The headline that no one missed…__ On Friday, the Supreme Court ruled to overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 landmark [ruling](https://www.britannica.com/event/Roe-v-Wade) that protected abortion as a federal right covered by the Constitution. Nearly half of US states have plans to quickly ban or limit abortion — and several [already have](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/24/roe-vs-wade-supreme-court-abortion-ruling-divides-america.html). In order to legally terminate a pregnancy, women in those states will have to travel to states where abortion isn't criminalized. For many, this travel may not be an option.

__Now corporate's stepping in...__ After the ruling, several large companies pledged to provide financial support for employees — and in some cases, even their dependents — who live in states where abortion's outlawed. The response has been swift:

- __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS), [Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT), [Chase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JPM),__ and __[Levi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LEVI)__ were among those that said they'd cover employee travel expenses for abortions.
- __[Citi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/C), [Salesforce](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CRM), and Tinder-owner [Match](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MTCH)__ vowed to provide financial support for affected employees back in May, when the draft opinion was leaked.
- __Others like [Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL), [Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX), and [Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ say they already cover travel expenses for healthcare treatments, including abortion and gender-affirming care.
- __Some GOP lawmakers__ are considering ways to [retaliate](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/08/us-companies-abortion-travel-assistance-roe-v-wade) against companies which help cover medical and travel costs. Think: asking Congress to cancel its contract with Citi.

Corporate holds court (Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Ruled

__Corporations can try to be the 4th branch...__ of government. Companies are becoming increasingly active on social and political issues. That’s largely because many customers, employees, and investors no longer accept inaction. While companies don't have executive, legislative, or judicial power, they have financial influence — from where they choose to open offices, to where they put their $$. __[Duolingo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DUOL)__ already warned that it would limit expansion in places that outlaw abortion.

As nearly half of US states move to restrict or ban abortion, corporate behemoths are stepping in to offer employees support

__Loose collars…__ Still plenty of pressure. This year’s Group of 7 meeting, which wraps today in Germany, had a surprisingly [casual dress code](https://www.gq.com/story/g7-summit-no-ties). The agenda: not-so-casual. President Biden and other leaders of the world’s wealthiest democracies spent three days debating how to punish Russian President Putin for his continued war in Ukraine — *without* punishing consumers. The details: 

- __Oil be darned:__ The US already banned Russian oil imports, and the EU is phasing them out. But thanks to wild prices, Russia’s making even more $$ from oil than it did pre-Ukraine war.  
- __Set the max:__ G7 leaders want to cap Russian oil prices to shrink Russia’s oil sales *without* shrinking global supply. Think: countries all agree to pay a lower price for Russian oil. 
- __Going for the gold:__ The G7 needs other nations to participate for the price cap to succeed, and hasn’t finalized the plan. In the meantime, it’s banning Russian gold imports, which earned the country $15B last year.

__IOU…__ Western sanctions are hurting Russia’s access to cash. On Sunday, Russia reportedly [defaulted](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/27/russia-on-the-brink-of-historic-debt-default-as-payment-period-expires.html) on $100M of foreign debt payments for the first time in a century — Putin denies it. But Russia’s economy has been relatively resilient: the ruble has rebounded and shelves have stayed [stocked](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/74Rmw5VlxBTIazWlkKzrHf/articles/6JLig31chFCLXR55AUMuC6/) thanks to domestic production and increased trade with Turkey, India, and China — they’re snapping up Russian oil.

Seven

__It’s a delicate balancing act…__ So far, Western sanctions haven’t shut down Russia’s economy or forced it to end its war. But if enough countries agree to participate in an oil-price cap, they could curb Russia’s oil sales immediately without hurting consumers. It’s not a risk-free strategy: if Russia cuts production in response to the cap, global oil prices could soar even higher.

G7 leaders consider capping Russian oil prices to punish Putin — without punishing everyone else with extra 'flation

As nearly half of US states move to restrict or ban abortion, corporates step in to offer employees support

G7 countries account for 40% of global GDP but just 10% of the world’s population

Corporate’s Roe response

__Recession-omics…__ the word on everyone’s lips. The probability of a US recession [soared](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-15/fed-s-inflation-fight-spells-pain-ahead-for-tight-labor-market) this quarter as the Fed aggressively hiked interest rates to tame stubbornly rising inflation. But while #flation hurts the economy, so does *fighting* it: higher rates discourage borrowing/spending and encourage saving, which should cool consumer demand and prices. They also lower companies’ growth expectations, which have slumped stocks into a bear market. And historically [most](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/14/not-every-bear-market-is-accompanied-by-an-economic-recession-but-chances-are-high.html) S&P 500 bear markets have been accompanied by recessions. All eyes are on whether the Fed can cool the economy without igniting a downturn — which seems increasingly tougher.

__Crypto winter dawns...__ Move over, web3. "Contagion" became the quarterly buzzword as the crypto market continued to tumble along with stocks, losing $2T in market cap since its November high. Algorithmic stablecoin __TerraUSD's__ crash wiped out $40B in market value seemingly overnight, while crypto lender __Celsius__ froze billions in customer funds. The trouble spread to other crypto companies like __[Coinbase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COIN)__, __Crypto.com__, and __Gemini__, all of which laid off employees as investors jumped ship. Bipartisan crypto regulation proposed in the Senate could be a win for the struggling industry — though with contentious midterm elections approaching, no one's holding their breath. 

__A tale of two labor markets…__ is the quarter’s biggest paradox. While rebounding sectors like hospitality and travel couldn’t hire fast enough (see: [travel-pocalypse](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1Qt2T96PxTPi4D1SE8Gee4/articles/5wYWNmL0OQwFnJ4JDNCU2m/)), pandemic thrivers slowed hiring and cut positions. Unemployment is at [record](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) lows and wage growth has doubled from 2019. Still, companies like __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__, __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__, __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__, and __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ have had mass layoffs as slowing growth threatens the bottom line. The tech industry made 8X more job cuts last month than it did during the first four months of the year combined. But with two job openings for every unemployed person, job seekers should be better off than in previous downturns.

A choppy quarter (Mike Hill/Getty Images)

3 key themes of the quarter…

- __[$156M](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/71oOBinwjs2uPx02aEH9Xz/articles/58i2EhnWJE0Zzvla002jLS/):__ How much “Top Gun: Maverick” raked in on opening weekend, a Memorial Day record. Movie-ticket sales hit a 40-year low in 2020, but are rebounding as studios send hit franchises like “Batman” to theaters — and ship others to streaming.
- __[3.48%](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y):__ The 10-year Treasury yield’s high this quarter, an 11-year record, as investors anticipate more inflation + higher rates. IOUs are getting pricier, from credit-card interest to gov’t bonds.
- __[$280](https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/04/13/jack-dorseys-first-tweet-nft-went-on-sale-for-48m-it-ended-with-a-top-bid-of-just-280/):__ The highest bid for an NFT of Jack Dorsey’s first tweet in an April auction — a year earlier it had sold for $2.9M (womp). Prices of Bored Apes and other viral NFTs have plummeted with non-fungible trading volume.
- __[$6.1B](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/23/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html):__ How much the US has committed to support Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, which has [killed](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/18/world/ukraine-russia-news-deaths) tens of thousands. The EU recently approved Ukraine’s candidate status to join the bloc, giving the country new hope.
- __[$44B](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elon-musk-twitter-deal-board-endorsement-qatar-economic-forum/):__ How much Elon Musk [agreed to buy](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1zpLKuQGHlxnAe3BYLQXii/articles/2igH2dzMBSwHyPrxwOz4J6/) Twitter for, including a $21B personal investment equaling one-fifth of his net worth. Musk said [three things](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/21/elon-musk-says-3-issues-need-to-be-resolved-before-twitter-deal-closes.html) stand in the way of the takeover: fake accounts, debt financing, and shareholder approval.
- __[€0.95](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1aPeIVnSAv0nbiyhbzDAM4/articles/7EvckqNHxnZk4b7BnAy6Wi/):__ How many euros one US dollar will get you. The greenback is up 9% this year and has [strengthened](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-dollar-is-winning-in-a-messy-global-economyand-that-matters-in-the-fight-against-inflation-11652617801) against currencies like the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the euro. It’s an economic bright spot for the US (and American tourists).

By the #s

6 notable numbers...

__The housing cooldown…__ The days of obsessive __[Zillow](https://robinhood.com/stocks/Z)__-scrolling and cheap mortgages are likely over. Home-buying demand is finally cooling as mortgage rates spike to the [highest](https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/05/homes/us-mortgage-rates-may-5/index.html#:~:text=The%2030%2Dyear%20fixed%2Drate,from%20this%20time%20last%20year.) levels since ’09. Last month, mortgage applications fell to a 22-year low, while brokers __[Redfin](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RDFN)__ and __[Compass](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COMP)__ had mass layoffs. Average mortgage payments are now 31% [higher](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/23/realestate/owning-renting-disparity.html) than rent — which could speed the cooldown. As rates rise, fewer people will be eligible/willing to take out loans. Yet home prices [won’t](https://fortune.com/2022/04/04/redfin-red-hot-housing-market-shows-first-signs-cooling-mortgage-rates/) cool until supply improves, and that could take [years](https://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/home-inventory-wont-return-until-at-least-2024-zillow#:~:text=It%20will%20take%20several%20years,of%20experts%20surveyed%20by%20Zillow.). In May, the median existing-home price topped [$400K](https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-fell-3-4-in-may-median-sales-price-surpasses-400000-for-the-first-time) for the first time as inventory remained brutally low. 

__Retail’s inventory glut…__ After years of struggling to get products on shelves, big retailers now have *too much stuff*. __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ said nearly a quarter of its inventory is “unwanted” as shipments meant for stay-at-home szn (think: puzzles, throw pillows) arrive months too late. Ditto for teen faves like __[Abercrombie](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ANF)__ and __[American Eagle](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AEO)__, which are sitting on 40%+ more inventory than a year ago. Now the __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ and __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__ are having huge sales events to shed extra merch. The discounts could lure stimmy-less shoppers to stores and help cool inflation.

__Knockoff economy…__ In Russia, CoolCola’s the new __[Coca-Cola](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO)__. Imitation brands are [sprouting](https://www.wsj.com/articles/western-brands-are-up-for-grabs-in-sanctioned-russia-11655870706?mod=business_lead_pos4) up after Western big shots like __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE)__ and Coke left because of #sanctions. Despite the corporate exodus, Russia’s economy has been surprisingly resilient: the ruble has rebounded to seven-year highs and shelves are still stocked thanks to more domestic production. Former __[McDonald’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD)__ locations in the country recently [reopened](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/74Rmw5VlxBTIazWlkKzrHf/articles/6JLig31chFCLXR55AUMuC6/) as rebranded Russian versions, with 98% local ingredients (and the same ketchup packets).

Zoom in

3 emerging trends…

The biz themes that defined this turbulent quarter, from recession-omics to a “crypto winter”

This month in the US the average price of a gallon of gas hit $5 — up by nearly $2 from a year ago