__Feels so normal, it's abnormal...__ walking to the restaurant bathroom unmasked. We thought "back to normal" was happening this winter, until Omicron. But now that cases have waned and proved less severe, a national reopening mania has started... for real. Anticipation is growing:

- __Restrictions are falling__ daily. Half of US states have [ditched](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mask-mandate-map-february-2022-n1289093) mask mandates over the past month, and even the CDC wants to give people [a break](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/16/cdc-wants-to-give-people-a-break-from-wearing-masks-as-pandemic-improves-director-says.html). Lots of Super Bowl fans were unmasked at a sold-out stadium, and Coachella and Stagecoach say they won’t have Covid-related restrictions when their festivals return in April.
- __Spending is up.__ January saw the strongest monthly gain in retail sales since March 2020, when the first stimulus checks hit. Retail sales were up 4% from December.
- __Travel is rebounding,__ and __[Marriott](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MAR)__, __[Hilton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HLT)__, and __[Airbnb](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ABNB)__ [expect](https://www.reuters.com/business/marriott-airbnb-others-see-global-travel-rebounding-2022-2022-02-16/) global travel to surpass pre-Covid levels this year.

__But there's a dark cloud...__ over reopening. Consumer prices were up 7.5% in January from a year earlier, the fastest increase in 40 years. While retail sales jumped, it’s [partly](https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-january-2022-retail-sales-11644963650?mod=business_lead_pos11) due to *higher prices* — not more purchases. Wages are rising, but pay bumps [haven't](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/10/inflation-eroded-pay-by-1point7percent-over-the-past-year.html) kept up with inflation.

- __Consumers are feeling it —__ especially low-income Americans. Food prices are up 7% from a year ago, and gas is up *40%*. __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__, the consumer bellwether, [says](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/17/walmart-cfo-brett-biggs-says-customers-are-paying-attention-to-rising-prices.html) shoppers are on edge about grocery bills. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment is at a decade [low](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-consumer-sentiment-drops-more-than-10-year-low-february-survey-2022-02-11/).
- __Companies are passing on rising costs__ to consumers, as inflation starts to dent profits. Still: Profit at the 500 largest companies were up 50% last year as consumers [proved willing](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/13/profits-for-sp-500-companies-rose-22percent-in-the-fourth-quarter-and-nearly-50percent-in-2021-estimates-show.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosmarkets&stream=business#:~:text=S%26P%20500%20operating%20margins%20have,were%20able%20to%20raise%20prices) to pay more. __[Coke](https://robinhood.com/stocks/KO)__, __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__, and __[Procter & Gamble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PG)__ reported [strong sales](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/16/walmarts-earnings-may-signal-if-shoppers-getting-spooked-by-inflation.html) despite upping prices.

What do you mean “no vax card required”? [SolStock/E+ via Getty Images]

Endgame

__Prices are spoiling the party…__ Literally: booze giant __[Constellation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/STZ)__ [wants](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4478331-constellation-brands-stz-ceo-william-newlands-on-q3-2022-results-earnings-call-transcript) to raise prices as much as buyers can absorb. But there’s medicine in sight. Last summer, the Fed wasn’t expected to raise rates until next year. Now at least three hikes are expected *this* year. Rising rates could hurt stocks and spending short term, but help consumers and the economy long term by curbing inflation.

"Reopening mania" is building, but there's a dark cloud over it — and your wallet feels it

__House of Gucci...__ Lux brands took a hit when lockdowns curbed the need for Balenciaga sneaks and Prada bucket hats. Last year, Gucci and Yves Saint Laurent owner __Kering__ had a record $20B comeback. Gucci sales jumped 30% last quarter thanks to big marketing and huge China demand. Luxe giants like Kering and __[LVMH](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LVMUY)__ are well positioned as prices rise: their customers are less price sensitive, and higher prices = #exclusivity. Now lux brands are looking to the metaverse. Last year, a Gucci digi-purse sold on __[Roblox](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RBLX)__ for nearly 20% more than the leather version.

__[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL) searched...__ its soul. Digital ad giants are nervous. Last week Google said it would [stop](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/16/google-plans-android-privacy-change-similar-to-apples.html) advertisers from tracking Android users, after __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ made a similar [move](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/13/apples-privacy-changes-show-the-power-it-holds-over-other-industries.html#:~:text=Apple's%20ad%20privacy%20change%20impact%20shows%20the%20power%20it%20wields%20over%20other%20industries&text=In%20April%2C%20Apple%20released%20an,from%20using%20a%20device%20ID.&text=While%20the%20changes%20have%20been,re%20also%20benefitting%20Apple's%20advertising.) last year. Since Android phones make up 70% of global smartphones, the change could cut into sales at __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__, __[Snap](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)__, __[Pinterest](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PINS)__, and __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__. This year Meta [expects](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/technology/apple-privacy-changes-meta.html) to lose $10B in ad revenue from Apple’s update, and its stock has fallen 45% from its September peak. Meta has told investors to stay tuned for its meta investments, but they may take a while to offset slowing ad sales.

Zoom Out

Stories we’re watching…

__Extreme makeover, pro edition…__ Home-improvement chains saw monster sales during the pandemic as we spent weekends building __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__-worthy home offices. Now the experts are taking over. __[Home Depot's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HD)__ pro biz (think: drywall, drill [rentals](https://www.homedepot.com/c/tool_and_truck_rental)) has topped DIY as homeowners outsource their paint jobs to contractors (who spend more $$ than DIYers). Last quarter, rival __[Lowe's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LOW)__ [raised](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/lowes-low-q3-2021-earnings.html) its sales forecast, partially thanks to a 16% spike in pro sales. We’ll see if it can keep boosting the bottom line for Lowe’s and the Depot when they report this week.

__Market vax-uration…__ Biotech newcomer __[Moderna’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MRNA)__ looking for its next move. The company used its novel mRNA “platform” to quickly make a Covid vax, and [sold](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-04/moderna-cuts-2021-vaccine-sales-estimate-as-revenue-falls-short) an estimated $15B+ of jabs last year. But Moderna’s biz is vulnerable since it makes only one product, and sales growth is slowing as vax rates plateau. Shares are down 70% from their September peak, and now Moderna’s spending billions to boost production abroad and add potential blockbuster HIV and flu drugs to its pipeline. We’ll see how those investments are tracking when Moderna reports on Thursday.

Events

Coming up this week...

- __[Chipper](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1WQENztNAu8UzlWhIRxGLw/articles/18EKyGD00qIzaSzibZqpiz/):__ Good news re: your back-ordered laptop. Last week __[Intel](https://robinhood.com/stocks/INTC)__ said it was buying Israeli chip maker __[Tower](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSEM)__ for $5.4B to boost production. Chip and EV giants have pledged billions to revamp US manufacturing.
- __[Ripe](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5LmNo4XqY94BEILxHeMVFj/articles/2nJt7ICl3XBGhemlAUlHzo/):__ Avocados are about to cost more green: avo prices are [rising](https://fortune.com/2022/02/16/avocado-crisis-chipotle-prices-skyrocket-mexico-president/) after the US banned imports from Mexico when a US food inspector was threatened amid cartel chaos. Mexico supplies 80% of the US’s avocados.
- __[Burbs](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7soGkARtnuPgraycLIFyKn/):__ Auntie Anne’s for lunch: Sales at __[Simon Property Group](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPG)__, the largest mall owner in the US, have surpassed pre-pandemic levels. But retail in cities isn’t seeing the same rebound.

ICYMI

Last week's highlights...

"Reopening mania" is happening as mandates fall, but inflation is a dark cloud

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

[Ollie Millington / Getty Images]

There were no statues honoring Black people in the US until 1974

🏁 The Covid endgame, and Google’s ad trouble

__About 2,640,000,000 results…__ But they’re *all* sponsored. This week, search-engine blogger DKB [wrote](https://dkb.io/post/google-search-is-dying) a viral post claiming “__[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ Search Is Dying.” The argument: Google search results aren’t as relevant as they used to be because they’re cluttered with ads and SEO-optimized clickbait. But Google still dominates the [search](https://www.statista.com/statistics/216573/worldwide-market-share-of-search-engines/) biz with 86% market share. 

- __Google has been the world’s largest search engine__ since 2000, two years after it was founded. And search is still its cash cow: ad revenues more than [doubled](https://www.statista.com/statistics/266249/advertising-revenue-of-google/) in the past four years, [boosting](https://www.reuters.com/technology/google-parent-alphabet-beats-revenue-estimates-online-ad-strength-2022-02-01/#:~:text=For%20the%202021%20full%20year,few%20weeks%20of%20the%20pandemic.) parent Alphabet to record sales last quarter.
- __But some users are ditching Google__ for more “authentic” results. Consider a search for “best vacuum”: Google gives you a half-dozen [ads](https://www.google.com/search?q=best+vacuum&rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS959US960&ei=Yp4OYoTuObqzytMP_8y7wAE&ved=0ahUKEwiEp6WCuYf2AhW6mXIEHX_mDhgQ4dUDCA8&uact=5&oq=best+vacuum&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EAMyBQgAEIAEMgUIABCABDIICAAQgAQQsQMyBQgAEIAEMggIABCABBCxAzIICAAQgAQQsQMyCAgAEIAEELEDMgUIABCABDIFCAAQgAQyBQgAEIAEOgcIABBHELADOgcIABCwAxBDOgoIABDkAhCwAxgAOhIILhDHARCjAhDIAxCwAxBDGAE6FQguEMcBEKMCENQCEMgDELADEEMYAToSCC4QxwEQ0QMQyAMQsAMQQxgBOgUIABCRAkoECEEYAEoECEYYAVCDBViVDGDNDWgCcAF4AIABaIgB6gKSAQM1LjGYAQCgAQHIARPAAQHaAQYIABABGAnaAQYIARABGAg&sclient=gws-wiz) and 700-word blog posts, while __Reddit__ offers unvarnished [reviews](https://www.reddit.com/r/VacuumCleaners/comments/sut3pr/sebo_k2_or_miele_c1/) from recent buyers on r/VacuumCleaners.

__Buried in the results…__ The search biz that made Alphabet huge could become a liability if users can’t easily find what they’re looking for, or don’t trust the results. And as Alphabet spent (and [lost](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/02/google-cloud-lost-5point61-billion-on-13point06-billion-revenue-last-year.html)) billions on Google Cloud and Waymo over the past few years, its core search biz has run into obstacles:

- __Growing competition__ from __[Microsoft’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__ Bing, China’s __[Baidu](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BIDU)__, and privacy-focused __DuckDuckGo__ has cut into Google’s search market share by 5% since 2018.
- __Global regulators__ have also launched several antitrust lawsuits against Google, [accusing](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/class-action-lawsuit-filed-in-california-alleging-google-is-paying-apple-to-stay-out-of-the-search-engine-business-301453098.html) it of favoring its products in shopping results.

When every search result is sponsored [sturti/E+ via Getty Images]

Results

__The search industry may be splintering…__ And Alphabet’s mountain of lawsuits could cut into its huge ad sales and give competitors a chance to take a slice of Google’s search share. There’s a reason people use “Google” as a verb. But as the internet becomes more decentralized, thanks to the rise of blockchain-backed communities, users could gravitate to new search options that reduce ad clutter and give more helpful results. 

Is Google search getting worse? A viral post points to cracks in Alphabet’s search supremacy

__Parking by the food court just got tougher…__ Malls were hit hard during the pandemic as shoppers ditched fitting rooms for sweatpants. Lockdown measures forced a [record](https://fortune.com/2021/01/07/record-store-closings-bankruptcy-2020/) 12K+ US stores to close in 2020, as mall icons like __J. Crew__, __Neiman Marcus__, and __Brooks Brothers__ filed for [bankruptcy](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/26/the-10-biggest-retail-bankruptcies-of-2020.html). Now __[Simon Property Group](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPG)__, the country’s largest mall owner, is calling the comeback: 

- __IRL again:__ SPG's sales topped pre-pandemic levels for the first time last summer as pent-up consumer demand and extra savings [revived](https://retailbum.com/2021/retail/simon-property-group-mall-sales-are-back-to-pre-pandemic-levels/) IRL shopping.  
- __Burbs:__ Last year, Scottsdale's Fashion Square, one of Arizona’s biggest malls, saw a 16% jump in foot traffic [from](https://www.globest.com/2021/08/16/malls-have-hit-pre-pandemic-foot-traffic-levels/) 2019, while Houston’s popular Galleria saw a 7% spike.
- Commercial real-estate broker __[CBRE](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CBRE)__ [said](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-american-mall-could-comeback-220028935.html) the US retail market could see a decade-high number of new leases this year.

__Tale of two retails…__ While malls have been benefiting from the return to normal, urban retailers are still struggling. Shares of __[Vornado Realty](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VNO)__, which owns property in metro [areas](https://therealdeal.com/national/2022/02/15/urban-retail-not-recovering-like-malls-shopping-centers-vornado/) like New York, Chicago, and San Francisco, are down 33% over the past two years. A couple reasons:

- __Tourist turbulence:__ The pandemic wiped $60B in tourism $$$ from NYC’s [economy](https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/60-billion-and-89000-jobs-lost-the-crushing-impact-of-nyc-tourisms-collapse/3024166/). While international visitors — and their wallets — are [trickling](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/22/nyregion/new-york-tourism.html) back, the city expects that traffic to reach a fifth of pre-pandemic levels this year. 
- __Digi happy hours:__ Now that just [3%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-14/just-3-of-white-collar-workers-want-a-full-office-return) of office workers say they want to return in person full time, retailers that used to thrive on those visits are worried. (NYC’s new mayor is all but [begging](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-14/just-3-of-white-collar-workers-want-a-full-office-return) CEOs to bring their employees back.)

Scraper

__There’s a long road ahead…__ Brick-and-mortar retail — urban and suburban — still faces an existential threat from our shift to online shopping. Case in point: there’s 90M square feet, or 16 [Mall](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/malls-ditch-shopping-to-fill-wasteland-of-vacant-retail-stores) of Americas, worth of empty US storefronts. Vornado's CEO says that even though urban commercial rents may have bottomed, they’re unlikely to ever return to the "unbelievable highs" of the Before Times. Now cities like Denver are offering [businesses](https://www.businessinsider.com/denver-colorado-downtown-business-retail-apocalypse-popup-economic-development-stores-2022-2) rent-free space and up to $20K in sweeteners to open shop downtown.

As Americans start to shop in actual stores more, suburban malls are making a comeback — but big-city storefronts are lagging

A viral post points to cracks in Google’s search supremacy

[NurPhoto / Getty Images]

*Kabob, goober, and crawdad* are words most Americans know but many Brits don’t. Yet Brits know *gazump, tippex, and quango*, which Americans do not. 

🔎 Google’s search snafu

__Enjoy that avo toast while you can…__ A supply problem is coming for your guac, and it’s not because of a chip shortage. Over the weekend, the US banned all avocado imports from Mexico after an American food inspector in Mexico said they received a death threat. Why that affects shelves: Mexico supplies 80% of the US’s avocados. 

- __Toast:__ Avocados approved for export before this week will still be imported to the US, but any additional avocados will stay in Mexico "[until](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/15/mexican-avocado-import-ban/) further notice."
- Mexico’s president [criticized](https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexican-president-accuses-us-inventing-151735622.html) Biden’s avo ban, saying it’s an attempt to boost sales for American farmers. While California provides 15% of America’s avocados, its capacity is far from meeting demand. 

__Big-time avo crime…__ The average American consumes 8 pounds of avocados/year, adding $3B to the Mexican economy in the process. The green gold rush has caught the attention of Mexican cartels looking to diversify their income. For decades, they’ve accessed government databases to extort and kidnap avocado farmers. In 2019, US officials warned that any threats to American food inspectors [would](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/14/us-suspends-mexican-avocado-imports-on-eve-of-super-bowl.html) result in an avo-import ban. The consequences are spread out:

- __Companies:__ Avocados make up one-tenth of __[Chipotle's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CMG)__ food costs. Now the fast-food chain says it has only a few weeks' worth left in stock.
- __Consumers:__ Avocado prices are already up 40% from last year thanks to inflation, and this ban could make them way pricier. 

[Anadolu Agency / Getty Images]

Ripe

__It’s not always about shortages…__ We’re used to blaming empty shelves on high demand, low supply, and clogged ports. But this avo drama is a reminder of how geopolitical tension carries business-stopping risks for the market and economy (see: Russia-Ukraine and Biden’s gas-pipeline threat). A ban on avocados could temporarily spike prices, but the payoff could be ensuring safe trade agreements between neighbors. For now, the US is underscoring that worker protections go hand in hand with doing business. 

Avocados are about to get even pricier, but this time it’s not about inflation — it’s about turf wars in Mexico

__Avatar all-hands meeting, stat...__ Five months ago: a little company known as Facebook rebranded as __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ to reflect its focus on building an immersive digital future (aka: the metaverse). Now Meta’s revamping its corporate values too. In a note to employees, Meta CEO Zuck [outlined](https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/facebooks-updated-values-include-meta-metamates-me/) the company's updated values, which were established in 2007. New things:

- __"Metamates"__ — sounds like Tinder for the metaverse, *actually* what Facebook employees will henceforth be known as. Also: News Feed is now "Feed" (less drama). 
- __"Live in the future"__ — one of Meta's new values, and also the opposite of what your meditation app tells you.
- __"Move fast"__ — and hopefully don't break things? Other values include “be direct and respect your colleagues.” 

__"Meta, Metamates, Me"...__ Meta's final value is a nod to the naval slogan "Ship, shipmate, self" (say that three times fast), which is also used by Insta employees. Zuck said it's about "being good stewards of our company and mission." Picture: avatar sailors navigating a ship into the Pacific dawn of the metaverse. Meta is investing billions into building the next social universe, but the journey may not be so pacific.

- __Meta has faced heat__ from regulators, politicians, and the public over failing to protect user privacy and combat hate speech and misinfo.
- __Meta’s social networks —__ particularly Instagram — have been [scrutinized](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-facebook-files-11631713039) for the psychological harm they cause teens.

Meet your Metamate [RichVintage/E+ via Getty Images]

Mate

__Culture rebrands only go so far…__ a new set of values could help Meta retain demoralized employees (#Metamates) during the Great Resignation, when many are quitting jobs for greener pastures. But employees are reportedly already [questioning](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/31/technology/facebook-meta-change.html) whether Meta should be focused on building new products without fixing its *existing* problems — which are likely to be amplified in the metaverse. Meanwhile, Meta’s [slowing growth](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6As9U5PUBzvDKmuDeCPCxK/articles/2KGgx4q5eCK1xFQBgb2QMp/) and ad dependence show that, makeover aside, it’s still Facebook.

​​Meta revamps its company values for “Metamates,” but still faces the same Facebook problems

Avocado prices are rising — but this time it’s a trade crisis, not inflation

Today is Michael Jordan’s 59th birthday: on top of being a six-time NBA champ, MJ’s one of the world’s 15 Black billionaires

🥑 The looming avo crisis

__Cashing in all the chips…__ As demand for semiconductor chips used in everything from __[Teslas](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSLA)__ to PlayStations has boomed amid pandemic [shortages](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/31E6cwe7ndD6pM602Hiv9R/articles/3Nn6tVCu3oGQg2XsCbQmyc/), sales and profits rose for chipmakers like __[AMD](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMD)__, __[Nvidia](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NVDA)__, and __[Intel](https://robinhood.com/stocks/INTC)__ despite those supply bottlenecks. This week Intel [said](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/15/intel-expands-in-specialty-chipmaking-with-5point4-billion-deal-for-israels-tower-semiconductor.html) it’s buying Israeli chip maker __[Tower](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSEM)__ for $5.4B in cash to expand its specialized chip-making capacity. 

- __Intel is the world’s biggest__ semiconductor company by sales, but it outsources much of its actual manufacturing to Taiwan-based __[TSMC](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TSM)__, which makes more than *half* of global chips. 
- __This Tower deal is a small part__ of Intel’s push to increase its manufacturing muscle at home and abroad. 

__The American Chip-aissance…__ The Great Chip Shortage [exposed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/31E6cwe7ndD6pM602Hiv9R/articles/3Nn6tVCu3oGQg2XsCbQmyc/) how much US companies rely on foreign chip makers and pushed Intel into a spending spree to better compete with Asian manufacturers. Intel’s spending $20B on [two plants](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/intel-is-spending-20-billion-to-build-two-new-chip-plants-in-arizona.html) in Arizona and possibly up to $100B on a [new factory](https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2022/01/21/intel-to-invest-20-billion-build-two-semiconduct.html) in Ohio that could become the world’s largest. Intel’s money moves are among several of its recent investments in US manufacturing:

- __Automakers from [GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM) to [Lucid](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LCID)__ plan to [spend](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ev-battery-makers-target-24-billion-southern-us-plants-2021-10-08/) $24B building EV and battery factories in the US. Since 2021 companies have announced plans to invest a total of $200B in American plants. 
- __Manufacturing__ has accounted for a steady amount of US GDP since the 1940s, but has been declining for decades. The US lost its title as the world’s biggest manufacturer in 2010… to China.

[SOPA Images / Getty Images]

Chipper

__Tiny chips are key to Biden’s big China plans…__ The president [used](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/02/08/remarks-by-president-biden-on-rebuilding-our-manufacturing-to-make-more-in-america/) Intel’s Ohio investment to drum up support for his China competition bill, which passed in the House two weeks ago after getting Senate approval in June. The America Competes Act is designed to bulk up the US’s manufacturing sector: it [includes](https://www.npr.org/2022/02/04/1078226282/u-s-house-passes-china-competition-bill) $52B for chip-making factories, $45B for supply-chain improvements, and $160B for R&D. In the next few weeks, Congress is expected to finalize a version of the bill.

Intel buys Israeli chipmaker for $5.4B as US manufacturers go on a spending spree to compete with China

__"Sponsored by [Squarespace](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SQSP)"...__ said every pod ever. Squarespace has helped 4M+ non-coders design sleek websites with ready-made templates and easy-to-use features. Think: sites for personal trainers, cooking blogs, online shops, and Zendaya's fake seashell company ([Super Bowl ad](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0rl8j5631Q)). Americans are starting more businesses as the WFH life and the Great Resignation inspire entrepreneurship.

- __Applications for new businesses__ were up [53%](https://www.axios.com/small-business-boom-covid-recession-pandemic-22862f00-3cdc-4550-ba6f-92aee7d3c91a.html) last year from pre-pandemic levels. That means new biz sites created with Squarespace, __[Wix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WIX)__, __[GoDaddy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GDDY)__, and others. 
- __Squarespace IPO’d in May__ after [raising](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1pA68KIKChD9WMr3DJ2OMP/articles/5Eln4YB0Z24G9ggQxfcejk/) $300M at a $10B valuation. Now it's worth less than half that, but the stock is up 12% this year while the techy Nasdaq is down 11%. 
- __Squarespace brought in $576M__ in revenue from January through September (the first time it revealed #s) — but it *lost* $241M. Must've been all that pod spend…

__“There aren’t enough pods”...__ said only Squarespace. Six years after Squarespace launched in 2003, the biz was losing $$$. Then, founder Anthony Casalena [splurged](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/13/business/how-did-squarespace-know-podcasts-would-get-this-big.html?referringSource=articleShare) on a big bet: a $20K ad on a tech pod. The result: a third of Squarespace's new subs came from that ad. After that, Squarespace went all in on pods, seeing huge growth from promos. By 2015, Squarespace was the biggest pod advertiser, buying 2.5X as many ads as its next competitor and indulged in 400+ pods/month, from niche shows to big names like Joe Rogan.

When you’ve memorized all the Squarespace ads [Emilija Manevska/Moment via Getty Images]

Podspace

__Trust leads to conversion…__ And conversion has never been more important for Squarespace. Pod fans spend *hours/day* listening to their fave hosts — that’s loyalty. When pod hosts ad-libbed Squarespace spots with tailored promo codes, conversion was huge. When Rogan did it, the return was “[almost unbelievable](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/13/business/how-did-squarespace-know-podcasts-would-get-this-big.html?referringSource=articleShare).” Ads placed on __[Meta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ and __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ saw only a fraction of the returns. Plus, Squarespace users aren’t likely to go elsewhere after paying an annual fee and building sites.

Website builder Squarespace cashes in on the side-hustle boom by dominating your earbuds

Intel buys Tower for $5.4B, part of a spending spree to compete with China

DJ Steve Aoki says he made more money last year on NFTs than he made in the past decade from music royalties

🏭 Intel’s chip-quisition 

__A new chapter for [Snapchat](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNAP)…__ Snap has had a wild start to the year: its shares plummeted 24% in a single day after __[Meta’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ disastrous [earnings](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/business/dealbook/meta-zuckerberg-stock.html) earlier this month, before spiking 60% the next day after reporting its first profitable [quarter](https://www.zdnet.com/article/snap-makes-a-cash-profit-for-the-first-time-ever-but-shares-sell-off/). This week Snap [introduced](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/14/22927656/snapchat-snap-stars-stories-ads) a feature that gives creators a slice of ad revenue — something YouTube and Instagram have been doing for years. The deets:

- __Snap is dropping ads__ in the middle of Stories (videos that disappear after 24 hours) and giving creators a cut of the revenue. For now the feature’s available only to verified influencers (Snap calls them “[stars](https://support.snapchat.com/en-US/article/snap-stars)”), but it will soon roll out widely.
- __Previously stars could make $$$__ by receiving tips from fans, teaming up with brands, or winning prizes from the little ghost. 

__Cash for content…__ As new users become harder to find — Meta (fka FB) just saw its first drop in daily users — social platforms are focusing less on growth and more on creators who bring their followings with them. Last year Snap doled out $1M *a day* to top creators to promote its __TikTok__ competitor, Spotlight. Some creators made $1M in two months (Snap ended that promo but still pays out millions monthly). Other social companies have showered creators with cash:

- TikTok launched a $200M [creator fund](https://newsroom.tiktok.com/en-us/introducing-the-200-million-tiktok-creator-fund) in 2020. The following year YouTube [started](https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/03/youtubes-100-million-shorts-fund-to-challenge-tiktok-goes-live/) a $100M fund and Insta a $1B [fund](https://www.facebook.com/creators/investing-one-billion-in-the-creator-community). 

When the Snap ad checks hit [Issarawat Tattong via Getty Images]

Streak

__The Creator Cash Boom is just beginning…__ Now that creators are seen as crucial to social companies’ success, those companies are racing to build new monetization models to attract them. Beyond generic “creator funds,” Snap, __[Twitter](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TWTR)__, TikTok, and Insta aim to help creators sell merch and attract sponsors. In January Insta and TikTok started [testing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2aaB9GnrWgVHhjJd7bFJu/articles/2UWDolcoaAHhja6kAnJxsL/) paid subscriptions that let creators charge fans for access to exclusive content. As the $100B+ creator economy grows, we’ll likely see social apps get more creative with creator tools.

Snap offers influencers a share of ad revenue for the first time, as competition for creators intensifies

__"Lose Yourself"...__ still slaps. Millions tuned in Sunday to watch the LA Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals in a nail-biter. While the players battled it out on the field, some of the biggest brands fought for our attention during time-outs. This year’s commercial themes shifted from the pandemic and politics to the *future*: 

- __Crypto’s debut:__ __[Coinbase's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COIN)__ 60-second spot featured a bouncing QR code and $15 __[bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ sign-up bonus, which the company claimed drove 20M+ visitors to its site before it crashed (while the app jumped from #138 to #2 on the App Store overnight). Meanwhile, __FTX__ and __Crypto.com__ tapped Larry David and LeBron to star in their commercials.
- EVs go mainstream: __[GM](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GM)__ brought back Dr. Evil and Meadow Soprano to promo its new EV fleet, which includes models from its Hummer, Cadillac, BrightDrop, and Chevy brands (FYI: only two are actually [available](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/14/22933092/super-bowl-electric-car-ad-commercials-evs-available) to buy.) Bowl stalwart __Kia__ and __[Volvo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VLVLY)__-owned Polestar joined the electrified action too.

__Free bitcoin during the bathroom break…__ the Super Bowl is one of the few places left to reach 100M+ consumers at once, and brands are paying more every year for that opportunity. The price tag for a 30-second commercial has jumped 3X since 2000, hitting a record $7M this year. Bowl spots are a chance for newer companies like Coinbase to introduce themselves to a wider demo, while legacy brands like Chevy can show they aren't just making your dad’s pickup truck. 

Wings

__Commercials aren’t the only option...__ OG Bowl advertisers like __[Pepsi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PEP)__ and __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE)__ ditched commercials altogether and were still among the most-viewed brands thanks to sponsorship deals (think: Nike team jerseys and Pepsi’s halftime show). Similarly, in-game sponsored brands (think: __Bose__ sponsoring coaches’ headsets) [earned](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/14/nfl-sponsors-nike-pepsi-dominate-2022-super-bowl-exposure.html) $170M worth of exposure this year and generated over one hour of screen time — more than all the ads combined.

EVs and crypto dominated this year’s Super Bowl commercials, but the real ad winners weren’t ads at all

Snap gives creators a cut of ad revenue to win over influencers

CoComelon’s “Baby Shark” is the first YouTube video to cross 10B views — more streams than there are people on Earth

👻 Snap gives creators a cut

__Mr. Loan-ly...__ President Biden campaigned on promises of student-loan forgiveness and free college — so far, they haven't panned out. Last week, first lady Jill Biden [admitted](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/07/us/politics/jill-biden-free-community-college.html) that her push for free community college is over (for now). The plan’s been scrapped from the massive “Build Back Better” spending bill that Dems are struggling to pass. Broad loan forgiveness could be next.

- __Biden has forgiven $15B__ worth of federal student loans for 675K borrowers — or [1%](https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2022/01/21/biden-administration-touts-15-billion-in-student-loan-forgiveness-for-675000-borrowers/?sh=7d6163207bb6) of the [$1.7T](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/what-it-would-take-for-the-government-to-cancel-student-loans-.html) outstanding student debt owed by 40M+ Americans. Biden’s campaign promise was at least $10K in loan forgiveness for *each* borrower.
- __Biden has extended the pause on loan repayments —__ initially suspended by Trump in March 2020 — three times. Thanks to the pauses, 40M+ borrowers are saving [$5B/month](https://www.ed.gov/news/press-releases/biden-harris-administration-extends-student-loan-pause-through-may-1-2022).
- __But payments are set to resume__ May 1 for federal loans, which make up 90% of total student debt.

__The price is not right...__ After a nearly two-year pause, Americans will have to start repaying $400/month, on average, in student loans, while inflation has hit a 40-year high. Rising wages have [*not*](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/10/inflation-eroded-pay-by-1point7percent-over-the-past-year.html) kept up with rising prices, and loans could make it even harder to pay the bills. For context: 12% of public-college grads still owe more than [$40K](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/who-owes-all-that-student-debt-and-whod-benefit-if-it-were-forgiven/). And nearly half of graduates of for-profit schools have defaulted. Meanwhile, [two-thirds](https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/votervital/who-owes-all-that-student-debt-and-whod-benefit-if-it-were-forgiven/) of community-college grads leave with zero debt. 

[Win McNamee / Getty Images]

Aloan

__Loan forgiveness isn’t the underlying problem…__ the cost of US colleges *is*. The average cost of a private college is $38K/year; for public colleges, it’s $23K for out-of-staters. Average tuition and fees have [nearly doubled](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/rising-cost-of-college-in-u-s/) since 2010. Broad loan cancellation would cost the US gov’t [$60B](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/what-it-would-take-for-the-government-to-cancel-student-loans-.html)/year in interest alone, and require big tax hikes to recoup. Since college is so pricey, loans would have to be forgiven all over again in an unsustainable cycle. Last month, Education Secretary Miguel Cardona laid out plans to make college more affordable — but [didn’t mention](https://www.businessinsider.com/broad-student-loan-debt-forgiveness-not-among-education-dept-priorities-2022-1) broad forgiveness. Meanwhile, college enrollment keeps [sliding](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/college-enrollment-declines-as-free-tuition-long-forgiveness-stall.html). 

The May 1 deadline for student-loan payments is weighing on Americans as Biden’s affordable-college promises crumble

__Pelosi-Tok…__ House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her VC husband are __TikTok__-[famous](https://www.sfgate.com/national-politics/article/Nancy-Pelosi-viral-stock-trades-16826801.php) for beating the market with their stock trading, a practice she’s [defended](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pelosi-defends-lawmakers-and-their-spouses-trading-stocks-we-are-a-free-market-economy-01639606786) to voters. There’s been growing criticism of lawmakers’ freedom to trade because they literally shape the law. Last year 55 lawmakers reportedly [failed](https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-stock-act-violations-senate-house-trading-2021-9) to disclose their trades. Politico reported that members of Congress [sold](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/21/coronavirus-trading-house-senate-140260) travel stocks like __[Royal Caribbean](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RCL)__ and bought pharma stocks like __[Moderna](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MRNA)__ in early 2020 while downplaying Covid. So last week Pelosi [OK’d](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/09/congress-moves-towards-banning-members-from-trading-stocks.html) a proposal to bar Congress from trading. The House is set to vote by November, but not all members support it.

__Not-so-value meal...__ From cereal and bacon to gas and cars, prices have soared at the fastest rate in 40 years. Inflation’s starting to dent corporate profits across industries: __[Toyota](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TM)__ saw earnings drop 20% last quarter on chip shortages. __[Yum Brands](https://robinhood.com/stocks/YUM)__ (owner of KFC, Taco Bell, and Pizza Hut) said rising ingredient costs and wages hurt its bottom line. __[Unilever](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UL)__ (Ben & Jerry’s, Dove soap) is taking a hit on transportation costs. The Fed wants to rein in prices with at least three interest-rate hikes this year. Regardless, shipping giant __[Maersk](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMKBY)__ says supply shortages aren’t easing up anytime soon.

Stories we’re watching...

__Rainy in the metaverse…__ Shares of tween-favorite gaming platform __[Roblox](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RBLX)__ (47M users) and chip maker __[Nvidia](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NVDA)__ soared last year as they invested in building out their meta-visions. But despite booming interest in an immersive internet of the future, many meta-focused stocks are now struggling. Nvidia and Roblox have sagged amid a broader tech slump, and __[Meta’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/META)__ stock is down 35% on [stalled](https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2022/Meta-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2021-Results/default.aspx) user growth and profit-hitting metaverse investments. We’ll get a pixelated portrait of the metaverse industry when Roblox and Nvidia report Wednesday.

__Piña coladas & conference calls...__ Extended stays are taking the travel industry by storm as WFH turns into work from *hotel*. Last year, 37% of __[Marriott’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MAR)__ room [sign-ups](https://marriott.gcs-web.com/news-releases/news-release-details/marriott-international-provides-update-development-progress-2021) in the US and Canada were for extended-stay trips. Meanwhile, __[Airbnb](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ABNB)__ saw [half](https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2022/01/22/airbnb-ceo-chesky-remote-work-travel/6622143001/) its customers book for at least seven days. Now real-estate developers like __[Starwood](https://robinhood.com/stocks/STWD)__ are paying [billions](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/blackstone-starwood-team-up-on-second-extended-stay-hotel-deal-wsj-2022-01-21) to scoop up longer-stay hotel chains that create twice as much profit margin as regular hotels. We’ll see how the “bleisure” economy is faring when __[Hilton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HLT)__, __[Hyatt](https://robinhood.com/stocks/H)__, Marriott, and Airbnb report this week.


Room service > Zoom service [YinYang/E+ via Getty Images]

- __[Versace](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7ycuKKAK4DhlIJ1iFIBRCe/articles/3uR2Sq93Mjj65EyqhxCEXV/):__ The DOJ seized a record $3.6B worth of __[Bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ and arrested a millennial couple (feat. a “financial rapper”) in connection with the 2016 __Bitfinex__ hack, as regulators crack down on crypto crimes. 
- __[Burst](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6oUasks4UHzb87QXAq6Z3b/):__ A key pipeline that carries gas from Russia to Germany is at the center of escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions — but a trade war with Russia could hurt more than just Europe’s gas supply. 
- __[Fees](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1I3jIJQkqK0ygv51yekmCQ/):__ Discount airlines __[Frontier](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ULCC)__ and __[Spirit](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SAVE)__ agreed to a $6.6B merger that would create the fifth-largest US airline (#FrontSpirit). But Biden’s “big is bad” regulatory stance could keep the deal from taking off.

Student-loan deadline weighs on Americans as Biden’s affordable-college promises crack

In 1986 Oprah Winfrey became the first Black American woman to host a nationally syndicated talk show

📚 Student-loan forgiveness cracks

__NFTs in the NFL…__ The LA Rams or the Cincinnati Bengals will become Super Bowl LVI champs when the final whistle blows this Sunday, but Matt Damon’s infamous __Crypto.com__ [commercial](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hBC5TVdYT8) could steal the show. This Bowl [could be](https://www.wsj.com/video/series/news-explainers/super-bowl-commercials-why-this-year-could-be-known-as-the-crypto-bowl/5FAD1CC5-3C38-4EF0-9748-9792E2F9586A) known as the “Crypto Bowl” because it’ll be the first to feature crypto ads. Last year, the NFL allowed sports-betting ads during its programming for the first time. The deets:

- __Crypto exchanges__ __[Coinbase](https://robinhood.com/stocks/COIN)__, __FTX__, and Crypto.com are expected to [run](https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22925225/super-bowl-ads-money-crypto-sports-betting) Bowl ads, some of which have sold for a record $7M per 30-second slot. Meanwhile, __[Budweiser’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BUD)__ commercial [features](https://adage.com/article/special-report-super-bowl/see-nft-cameo-bud-light-nexts-super-bowl-ad/2397711) NFTs, the metaverse, and Barbra Streisand.
- __[DraftKings](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DKNG)__ is back for a second year, along with rookies __[Caesars](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CZR)__ and __FanDuel__. A record 31.5M Americans are estimated to bet nearly $8B on this year’s big game.

__Super brownie points…__ The Bowl is the most-watched event in US sports, so it gives fast-growing companies a supersize opportunity to reach new users. Crypto and betting businesses have already been courting sports fans by teaming up with star athletes and sponsoring stadiums: 

- __Crypto.com__ paid a reported $700M to sponsor LA’s Crypto.com Arena (FYI: the Super Bowl is in LA’s *other* crypto arena, __[SoFi](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SOFI)__ Stadium). Crypto exchange FTX sponsors Miami’s FTX Arena and partners with Tom Brady. 
- __DraftKings__ and FanDuel have linked up with the NBA, the NHL, and the MLB on official sports-betting partnerships and streaming rights.

A touchdown for crypto? [Dmytro Aksonov/E+ via Getty Images]

GameDay

__The Super Bowl represents mainstream consumer America…__ Bowl ads give fledgling brands a chance to win over consumers by putting their products next to trusted brands like Budweiser, __[Coca-Cola](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ko)__, and __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__. It doesn't always work: Many dot-com companies that advertised in the 2000 “[Startup Bowl](https://thehustle.co/the-year-startups-took-over-the-super-bowl/)” failed. But the Super spotlight could help crypto and betting companies enter the consumer mainstreams. Plus: FTX’s CEO told WaPo that his ads aren’t just meant to win over customers — they’re also meant to [court *regulators*](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/08/29-year-old-ceo-pushes-crypto-company-during-super-bowl-by-giving-away-millions-bitcoin/) by promoting a “healthy image.” 

Crypto companies hope to win mainstream trust in their Super Bowl debut — so do sports-betting apps

__Uber Pool is coming back…__ Bring an XL mask. Last quarter, __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ had more active users than ever (118M), as you ride-hailed to Taco Tuesday *and* ordered Taco Bell direct-to-couch. Uber's revenue jumped 83%, and it notches its second profitable quarter since IPO’ing 2019. Delivery made up over half of bookings, with rides close behind. 

- __Eats:__ It’s hard to get a Saturday reservation again, as Americans return to eateries. That didn’t hurt Uber Eats’ revenue, which [jumped](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/09/uber-earnings-q4-2021.html) 77% to $2.4B. Eats also posted its first quarterly profit and is now the US’s fastest-growing food deliverer.
- __Rides:__ Uber’s completed nearly 1.8B rides last quarter, up 8% from the previous quarter and 23% from 2020, but still slightly down from pre-pandemic. Meanwhile, __[Lyft’s](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ active riders fell [last](https://www.reuters.com/business/lyft-reports-first-full-year-adjusted-profit-ride-hail-customers-pay-more-than-2022-02-08/) quarter.

__Super Uber…__ Uber has long hyped plans to become “the operating system for daily life.” “Super Apps” (think: Uber, __[DoorDash](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DASH)__, Venmo, Amazon... all in one) are popular in Asia, but haven’t quite taken off in the US. Still, 11% of Americans surveyed want one app to [manage](https://www.emarketer.com/content/study-shows-strong-super-app-demand-us-vindicating-bundling) their entire digital lives. On Thursday, Uber unveiled super-app-y ambitions:

- __The past:__ In 2011, Uber had two offerings: Uber and Uber Black. Today, Uber offers more than 15 ways to get around, including scooters, shuttles, rental cars, and motorbikes. Plus, it delivers food, alcohol, groceries, and even pharmacy products. 
- __The future:__ Uber wants to let you book flights, shop for clothes, manage your finances, and buy concert tickets all in its app. Uber says the initiatives could help gross bookings reach $170B by 2024. But the stock slid anyway. 

Takeout

__Cross-promotion may be the best promotion…__ Uber gains delivery customers by promoting Eats to ride-only customers, and vice versa. It’s working: users who order food *and* rides through Uber’s main app spend 3X more than those who use the apps separately. And Uber will likely leverage cross-promotion to boost any future verticals, like shopping and flights. 

Uber’s delivery service is still thriving despite reopenings — and shopping and flight bookings could be next

How crypto companies hope to win mainstream trust in their Super Bowl debut

Former University of Michigan economist Susan Collins will become the first Black woman to lead a branch of the Fed

🏈 The Bitcoin Bowl

__Bring on the [Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX) drama...__ On Tuesday the Justice Department said it had seized $3.6B in __[bitcoin](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC)__ stolen in the 2016 hack of digital-currency exchange __Bitfinex__. The department said it had managed to recoup 80% — worth $71M at the time, but now worth *$4.5B* — in its largest financial seizure *ever*. That's not even the interesting part:

- __The incident:__ The DOJ arrested married couple Heather Morgan and Ilya Lichtenstein in connection with plotting to launder 119,754 bitcoins stolen from Bitfinex. (It’s unclear whether the two were also behind the hack.) 
- __The characters:__ The NYC-based 30-somethings appear to be the crypto-bro versions of Bonnie and Clyde (cringe warning). Morgan is a rapper, "international economist," and "serial entrepreneur," so her Forbes contributor [page](https://www.forbes.com/sites/heathermorgan/?sh=14ff36167f7d) says. If you're into finance rap, you might know her by "[Versace Bedouin](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Y1ujFhhADU)." Lichtenstein (nickname: "Dutch") is a self-described startup investor who’s active on Twitter.
- __The plot:__ Prosecutors say the couple used “sophisticated laundering techniques” to convert stolen bitcoin into legit-seeming cash (and gold… and __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ gift cards). But they were able to launder only a fraction of the coins before the DOJ stepped in.
- __The denouement:__ The couple could face up to 25 years in prison. The DOJ says it’s working on ways to return the snatched crypto.

__Digi-thug life…__ Crypto crimes are on the rise, and regulators are watching. Scammers took home a record [$14B](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/08/feds-seize-3point6-billion-stolen-from-bitfinex-hack.html) in crypto last year, while the DOJ [set up](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/deputy-attorney-general-lisa-o-monaco-announces-national-cryptocurrency-enforcement-team) a special enforcement team to target crypto crimes. In June, US officials [recovered](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1OGX2SxRlMqhAffcNdq8SN/articles/3bGR8UcE6cLGCm5DBw9eR/) $2.3M in bitcoin paid as ransom. 

[OLIVIER DOULIERY / Getty Images]

Versace

__The crypto crackdown could be good for bitcoin…__ Crypto has a bad rap for its role in scams and other crimes. But the DOJ is starting to back up its claim that crypto isn’t a criminal “safe haven.” The Bitfinex fail shows how difficult it can be to launder bitcoin undetected. While BTC is often used by criminals because of its hard-to-trace nature, it’s less anonymous than cash because the blockchain logs a permanent public record of all transactions. 

The DOJ arrests a quirky couple after seizing $3.6B in stolen bitcoin, as regulators crack down on crypto crimes

__And the Oscar goes to…__ your couch. __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__ stole the show on Tuesday at the Academy Award nominations. The Flix secured 27 noms — nearly [half](https://www.barrons.com/articles/netflix-nflx-academy-award-nominations-51644337763) went to its drama “Power of the Dog,” including a coveted best-picture nom. Netflix’s star-studded "Don't Look Up" (feat. Leo DiCaprio and Meryl Streep) got four nods. HBO Max’s “Dune” and “King Richard” earned a combined 16.

- __Other streamers with gold recognition:__ __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ received a record six Oscar noms, including best picture for “CODA.” __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ scored six and __Hulu__ one (womp).
- __Half__ of this year's best-picture-nominated films were from streaming companies, but no streamer has ever won the top award. 

__Power of the popcorn…__ The Oscars are Hollywood's highest honor, but award-show viewership has fallen as people tire of seeing blockbuster faves snubbed (like: “Spider-Man” and “No Time to Die”). Plus, nearly half of pre-pandemic moviegoers have yet to return to the big screen, and almost 10% say they [never](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/29/business/movie-theater-attendance.html) will. So traditional studios have started testing popcorn-popping from the couch with the “hybrid model.”

- Last year __WarnerMedia__ released all its movies on HBO Max at the same time they hit theaters, and __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS)__ did hybrid Disney+ releases for a few of its blockbusters. 
- This year Warner's "Dune" — which dropped in theaters and on HBO Max — pulled in [$400M](https://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/wireStory/dune-power-dog-poised-oscar-nomination-hauls-82736807) at the global box office (and got 10 Oscar nods).

Looking up at “Don’t Look Up” [andresr/E+ via Getty Images]

DiCaprio

__Studios are becoming streamers...__ and streamers are becoming studios. OG streamers face fresh competition from OG studios, which are focusing on streaming now too. Think: __Universal's__ Peacock, Warner's HBO Max, and __[Viacom's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VIAC)__ Paramount+. Meanwhile, streamers are splurging on Oscar-worthy content to become studios: last year Netflix spent $17B on original content and bought iconic theaters in LA to premiere its flicks. That’s helped streamers rack up the Hollywood-level recognition that used to be dominated by big studios. 

Netflix leads Oscar noms (again), while OG Hollywood studios embrace streaming to level the playing field

DOJ makes arrests after seizing $3.6B in bitcoin, as the crypto-crime crackdown intensifies

A record 31.5M Americans are expected to bet on this year’s Super Bowl — up 35% from last year

💰 The big bitcoin bust

__Just keep spinning...__ The __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PTON)__ saga is building more drama than Nemo's shark [encounter](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Hkn-LSh7es). The latest: Peloton cofounder John Foley is [stepping down](https://www.wsj.com/articles/peloton-ceo-john-foley-to-step-down-become-executive-chair-11644314403) as CEO as the former pandemic darling struggles with sagging demand for its connected fitness equipment. Peloton will also cut 2.8K jobs — a fifth of its corporate roles — to narrow losses. The severance package for those employees [includes](https://www.businessinsider.com/peloton-giving-2800-fired-employees-free-1-year-subscription-2022-2)… a one-year Peloton membership (facepalm).

- __New guy:__ Subscription star Barry McCarthy, former CFO of __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__ and __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__, is taking over as chief exec. Foley's becoming exec chairman.
- __New plan:__ Slash $800M in yearly costs. Last month, Peloton was reported to be [pausing](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2aaB9GnrWgVHhjJd7bFJu/articles/1cvFtVr0b2fj1m1iC9AgUW/) bike and treadmill production. It’s now winding down plans for its new Ohio factory.
- __Key quote__ from its new CEO: *"Where the company got over its skis is it built out a cost structure as if Covid was the new normal.”* Read: way overestimated demand.

__Peloton Prime...__ a perk that could warrant __[Amazon's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ coming price hike. Rumors are [swirling](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/peloton-shares-up-on-takeover-talks-heres-why-a-deal-might-not-work.html) that Amazon and __[Nike](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NKE)__ are interested in buying Peloton, whose shares have plunged 80% from their 2020 peak. One analyst said __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ is “aggressively involved” too. Peloton shares have soared 56% this week on reports of big suitors. Last month, activist investor __Blackwells Capital__ dropped a [65-page deck](https://www.blackwellscap.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/BW_Peloton_Presentation_Feb072022.pdf?campaign_id=4&emc=edit_dk_20220208&instance_id=52488&nl=dealbook&regi_id=83712167&segment_id=81988&te=1&user_id=05114d149fce45660cf01aea64f5af7e) calling for Peloton to fire Foley and sell itself. According to Blackwells:

- __Peloton is an attractive biz__ thanks to its 2.7M loyal subscribers, but its performance has suffered because of mismanagement. 
- __Peloton should "immediately" be put up for sale.__ Other viable acquirers could be: Amazon, Nike, Netflix, __[Disney](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DIS)__, or __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__.

Watching Peloton on Netflix, or Netflix on Peloton? [pixdeluxe/E+ via Getty Images]

PeloFlix

__A spin-quisition may be premature…__ While a Netflix-Peloton integration is fun to imagine, a few factors indicate Peloton might *not* sell itself yet. The shiny new CEO and the cost-slashing plan suggest Peloton wants to revive itself solo. No sales talks with suitors have been reported, and Foley and other PTON insiders would likely need to approve any deal (because: voting power). Meanwhile, regulatory scrutiny of Big Tech deals is mounting. Amazon’s __MGM__ deal, announced in May, still hasn’t been OK’d. 

Amazon or Nike might want to take Peloton for a spin, as the fit-tech company changes CEO and cuts jobs

__Pressure in the pipeline…__ and on the border. Quick international-relations refresher: In late January, Russia stationed 100K troops near its border with Ukraine, fueling fears of an invasion. Russian President Putin says his country won’t invade, but the US and Germany have already been debating trade restrictions (aka: sanctions) on Russia for weeks. The goal: prevent invasion. On Monday: 

- __President Biden__ met with Germany’s new chancellor, Olaf Scholz, and vowed that Nord Stream 2 — a pipeline that carries gas from Russia to Germany — would be shut down if Russia invaded. Oil exports make up 30% of Russia’s economy, so it would take a hit.
- __But Germany__ is the only country that can shut the Nord, and Scholz avoided [confirming](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/07/politics/biden-scholz-meeting-ukraine/index.html) that he would. While Germany is a US ally, it relies on the Nord to heat 26M homes. 

__Regional pipe, global problem…__ If the US imposes economic sanctions, Russia could retaliate by shutting off all its fuel exports. Since Russia supplies more than a third of the EU’s natural gas, fuel prices across Europe could spike if Russian fuel exports run dry. And if there’s a trade war, other global industries would likely be affected too.

- __Fewer planes:__ __[Boeing](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BA)__ [says](https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/boeing-says-us-russia-relations-weighing-business-2022-01-31/) the standoff threatens to disrupt plane production, since Russia produces titanium and other metals.
- __Pricier grains:__ Global food prices could [rise](https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/americans-further-price-increases-russia-invades-ukraine) even more, because Russia and Ukraine produce a lot of the world’s wheat and corn.
- __Reversed gains:__ Analysts say rising oil and food prices could exacerbate inflation and slow, or even reverse, global recovery. 

[picture alliance / Getty Images]

Nord

__Pipe-plomacy is a big test for sanctions…__ Nord Stream could become the center of the largest sanction ever (if Germany comes around). But Russia has “sanction-proofed” its economy for years by stockpiling its own cash (rubles) and on-shoring production. As Russia and China [decouple](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4Kd4lO6WFcc5HwEH5XR6SP/articles/60LT4dehwCO5TEQWhowccI/) from global markets, and digital currencies offer an alternative to USD-centered global trade, OG sanctions may prove less effective.

A lone gas pipeline could be the key to Russia-Ukraine diplomacy, but sanctions won’t be straightforward

Biden says a key gas pipeline will be shut if Russia invades Ukraine — Germany isn’t so sure 

TikTok shares your data with third-party trackers more than any other social-media app — and it’s unclear where it goes

⛽ Biden’s Russia pipeline problem

__Flight costs $80…__ but the overweight luggage costs *$180*, and we hope you packed a sandwich. Budget airlines like __[Spirit](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SAVE)__ and __[Frontier](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ULCC)__ are (in)famous for low prices, zero frills, and pricey add-ons. They rebounded from the pandemic quicker than legacy airlines because their primary customers — thrifty vacationers — returned to airports before business travelers. Now America’s two budget behemoths are tying the knot: Frontier and Spirit [agreed](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/07/frontier-and-spirit-to-merge-creating-5th-largest-airline-in-us.html) to a $6.6B merger, creating what would be the fifth-largest US airline: #FrontSpirit (real name TBD). Yesterday Frontier’s stock rose 3% and Spirit’s soared 17%. 

- __Big plans:__ The companies said the merger would result in more cheap flights in underserved areas, 10K new jobs by 2026, and no layoffs.
- __Bad PR:__ Yesterday morning Frontier canceled 20% of its flights because of tech issues — not a good look when you’re marketing *more* flights.

__Battling the Big Four…__ by adding one more. The Frontier-Spirit deal is the latest in a long line of airline mergers: __[American](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAL)__, __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL)__, __[United](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UAL)__, and __[Southwest](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LUV)__ were formed from 10 airlines and make up 80% of US air traffic. #FrontSpirit would command only 10% market share, but it could face a tough path forward:

- __President Biden__ wants to boost airline competitions to ensure inexpensive, transparent travel. Although the merged companies would compete with big airlines, analysts say it’ll squeeze out smaller budget airlines like __Breeze__ and __Avelo__.
- __Last year the DOJ blocked__ a partnership between American Airlines and __[JetBlue](https://robinhood.com/stocks/JBLU)__, even though it wasn’t even a merger. The last US airline merger was __[Alaska](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ALK)__ and __Virgin’s__ combination in 2016. 

[Scott Olson / Staff via Getty Images]

Baggage

__Takeoff can be tricky when regulators want you grounded…__ Frontier and Spirit insist that their merger will benefit customers by providing low-cost flights in more cities. But while the deal may have taken off without trouble during past presidencies, analysts [say](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/07/investing/spirit-frontier-airlines-merger/index.html) Biden’s “big is bad” approach could complicate the deal. Plus, Frontier and Spirit have the industry's worst customer-satisfaction ratings, and the new airline could face competition for cost-conscious flyers from the likes of American, which is expanding its budget flights.

Frontier and Spirit agree to a $6.6B merger, but regulators and travelers may not be on board

__Honey & Berries…__ a match made in swipe heaven. Yesterday, __[Bumble](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BMBL)__ made its first-ever acquisition with quirky five-year-old French dating app __Fruitz__. ICYMI, Bumble is the popular dating app where women make the first move. Bumble’s already in some European countries, but the US and Latin America still make up more than half its users. Meanwhile, Bumble’s *other* dating app, __Badoo__, has [more](https://badoo.com/team/press/91/#:~:text=About%20Badoo,because%20happiness%20is%20better%20shared.) than 300M users worldwide. With Fruitz, Bumble is doubling down on its Euro reach. 

- __Cherry-picking:__ Users are shown profiles based on which fruit icon they pick. Each fruit = a relationship type ([think](https://apps.apple.com/ca/app/fruitz/id1196246520): watermelon for friends with benefits, cherry for long-term commitment). 
- __Choose your perks:__ Like most dating apps, Fruitz is free but offers premium paid features. For example: The “pollen” add-on shows profiles closest to you.
- __Bumble’s sales__ jumped 24% last quarter to 200M thanks to extra paid users. 

__Financial stability > ship stability…__ The pandemic has influenced younger generations to value financial stability over serious relationships. Only 1 in 10 Gen Zers says they’re “committed to being committed.” Millennials still make up the majority of app users, but in saturated markets like the US, new growth has been hard to come by. Now:

- __Last quarter__ Bumble saw its first user-growth decline since going public, as swipe madness cooled in the US. 
- __Bumble can leverage Fruitz’s ability__ to reach Gen Z where it’s seeing “rapid growth” in less saturated countries like in Belgium, France, Spain, Switzerland, and the Netherlands.

Bumble goes cherry-picking [Monty Rakusen/Image Source via Getty Images]

Cherry

__It’s not one size fits all...__ when it comes to dating. Because in order to reach your customers, you have to *know* your customer. That’s why rival __[Match](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MTCH)__ has scooped up dating sites like __Harmonica__, which caters to Middle Eastern users, and __OurTime__, which is designed for singles age 50 and older. As millennials start to age out of dating apps, Gen Z represents the next big market for paying customers. That means offering more friend-zone-friendly features (like: Bumble BFF) and incorporating interests — or funny fruit icons — over swipeable pics.

Bumble makes its first purchase — French dating app Fruitz — to win over Gen Z’ers in Europe 

Budget airlines Frontier and Spirit agree to a $6.6B merger that might not take off

Facebook lost users for the first time *ever* last quarter: daily active users dropped from 1.930B to 1.929B