__*It's hereeee*...__ Amazon Pharmacy. Two years ago, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ acquired PillPack for $1B. Pharmacies were shook, but not as shook as they were yesterday when: the Zon launched an online pharmacy, built off PillPack's biz. Starting this week, people in 45 US states can send their prescriptions to Amazon and order meds. 

- __Prime members get__ free two-day shipping and savings benefits (up to 80% off generic and 40% off brand-name meds). *And* a savings card to use at  50K pharmacies.
- __Non-Primers get__ free 5-day delivery (and a whole lot of pop-ups to join Prime). Amazon's accepting most forms of insurance, but you can pay without.

__"Code red!"...__ Overhead at CVS corporate. Amazon's entering a massive market — nearly half of Americans [take](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-08/nearly-one-in-two-americans-takes-prescription-drugs-survey) prescription drugs. In 2018, pharmacies sold [$336B](https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-com-adds-prescription-medicine-options-to-its-site-11605613679?mod=hp_lead_pos6) worth of prescription meds. But Amazon has over [110M](https://fortune.com/2020/01/16/amazon-prime-subscriptions/) US Prime members, which could make its ePharmacy seem more convenient (and cheaper). That's why:

- __[CVS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVS) and [Walgreens](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WBA) shares dropped__ 9% yesterday, and __[Rite Aid](https://robinhood.com/stocks/RAD)__ plunged 16%.
- __[GoodRx](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GDRX) stock fell__ 23% since [it's](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/4SQQIJGVDV1ZMsRwO23SPV/articles/231DSeRmMIaG6mxLu3tUCS/) "the Expedia of prescription drugs."
- __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT) stock dipped__ 2% — despite strong earnings yesterday — because it has a healthcare biz.  

e-Pill

__Brick-and-mortar could save pharmacies...__ CVS and Walgreens each have 10K+ locations across the US, and they're expanding on-site healthcare to offer what Amazon *can't*. Walgreens [dropped](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6hhuCOY10qHk7z0tNQJNYE/articles/5aYSlp1wVeRDxLaMBqz3MY/) $1B to open hundreds of doctors offices, CVS is opening 1.5K "HealthHUBs," and Walmart offers on-site care — all to make buying prescription meds more convenient. Then again:  telehealth has surged, and Amazon's discounts could be worth a two-day wait.

Amazon launches an online pharmacy, making CVS and Walgreens stock quake

__Calm down...__ __Airbnb__ got some inspo from Genesis as it prepped its IPO [filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1559720/000119312520294801/d81668ds1.htm), kicking off its origin story with "*In the beginning...*" The home-sharing giant [plans](https://www.wsj.com/articles/airbnb-ipo-filing-shows-profitable-quarter-after-deep-cuts-11605564419?mod=business_lead_pos13) to go public in December under ticker symbol ABNB (STAY and CASA were too edgy). 

- __Spring quarter:__ Airbnb lost nearly $600M, almost double what it lost during the same time last year. 
- __Summer quarter:__ Airbnb made a $219M *profit* last quarter, despite sales falling 18%. 

__Nespresso machine en suite...__ 5 stars. Investors are giving Airbnb some credit. Earlier this year, Airbnb's valuation plunged to $18B as it took out high-interest loans to [cover](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/78so4bt9Fa85LcklanAFSB/articles/4O5kJlEPHTgzTTN70wvPrp/) guest refunds and $250M for hosts' losses. Then it majorly turned its desperate fate around, filed to IPO, and is expected to notch a $30B valuation. 

- __The "work from anywhere" trend__ helped, as people seeked less bedroom-like pastures. Airbnb focused on small towns after noticing an uptick in local stays.
- __Brutal cost-slashing__ was also key to the comeback — Airbnb sadly laid off 25% of its employees. It also shed noncore businesses and halved exec pay.


_Forgot the code for the Nasdaq check-in_

__Airbnb needs to think like Uber (not like Lyft)...__ Airbnb is just a sharing platform for *homes*, like Lyft is just a ride-hailing platform. Meanwhile, Uber has [become](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1D3tkm10PGnxrVOWgEDFKP/articles/4elR6MraWRLDXQoo2e4Q99/) a platform to transport *anything* — from food, to cargo, to meds. If Airbnb becomes an "anything-sharing" platform  (think: parking spaces, storage, boats, RVs) it could protect itself from pandemic pain — it warned that the recent COVID surge could bruise bookings this quarter. 


Airbnb files to go public and reveals a profit in its big turnaround quarter

Dow Jones

S&P 500

Nasdaq

Bitcoin

💊 Amazon launches an ePharmacy

__When you get a 90% on the test…__ and your friend immediately mentions they got a 95%. Last week, __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ and __[BioNTech](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BNTX)__ [announced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/0CzIbmfTQ6Qo8bhIShm43) that their COVID-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective in final-stage trials (huge). *Yesterday*, __[Moderna](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MRNA)__ [said](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/16/moderna-says-its-coronavirus-vaccine-is-more-than-94percent-effective.html) its vaccine was more than *94%* effective, according to early results (huge-er). Moderna's vax is also easier to store, temperature-wise. But how soon could a vax get approved and start shipping?

- __Moderna plans to request emergency FDA approval__ by early December. Pfizer could seek emergency use authorization this month.
- __If Moderna gets the greenlight,__ it could start distributing in December with 20M doses ready to ship by end of year.
- __Potato, not potatoe:__ Pfizer is a 170-year-old pharma with 300+ drugs on the market. Moderna's a 10-year-old biotech that has [never](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/79biJunQ8AVseCaSA7jDwV/articles/3Kiqd7olgKIOuHwvy3lMeJ/) sold a single drug. 

__But they have one thing in common...__ Moderna and Pfizer both have mRNA vaccines, which [are](https://www.phgfoundation.org/briefing/rna-vaccines) faster and cheaper to make than traditional vaccines — but have never been approved for human use. Both have said they're planning to sell *for* profit, while some traditional vax frontrunners like __[AstraZeneca](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AZN)__ pledged to initially sell "at cost" (no profit). But Pharma isn’t the only industry that could be poised to profit...


_The big checkmate_

Distribute

__Logistics companies could benefit (big)...__ Distributing the vaccine will be a massive undertaking,  and airlines and shipping companies will likely be key to that. Providing a single dose to 7.8B people will require 8K __[Boeing](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BA)__ 747 cargo planes.  __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL)__ and __[UPS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UPS)__ are already [gearing](https://www.aviationpros.com/airlines/news/21160506/ups-delta-prepare-for-covid19-vaccine-shipments) up by expanding their cooling facilities for vaccine storage/shipment. Pharma products are one of the most profitable cargo types, so this could be a huge financial opportunity. 


Moderna makes big vax news, and logistics companies could benefit

__Googling: "How long can human go on 4 hours sleep"...__ Don't worry, __[Casper](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CSPR)__'s right there with ya. The direct-to-consumer mattress company was a unicorn before it went public back in February. Now its valuation has [dropped](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/6kMejLjAW3nUadbqAQTFJW/articles/3clvgCbPhDFEgLE19oIZVu/) from $1.1B to just over $250M (quarter-corn?). Casper lost more sleep yesterday when its stock plunged 14% after [earnings](https://ir.casper.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2020/Casper-Reports-Third-Quarter-2020-Results/default.asp).

- __Casper's sales fell__ 3%, even though time spent in bed probably increased 1,000% (#work-from-bed). And it's still dreaming of profit. Buuut...
- __Casper saw record website traffic__ last quarter, pointing to record interest in its mattresses. People were browsing Casper.com to upgrade their  takeout-in-bed game.

__Sounds counterintuitive....__ But it makes sense. Casper's sales fail wasn't due to weak demand, but to weak *supply*. Many mattresses were out-of-stock for weeks at a time, meaning Casper couldn't ship out enough to meet demand. Casper blamed supply chain challenges like fabric and foam chemical shortages. It should really blame its lack of vertical integration:

- __Vertical integration__ is when a company owns multiple stages of production in its supply chain. __[Apple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AAPL)__ just got more vertically integrated by ditching __[Intel](https://robinhood.com/stocks/INTC)__ to put its own Apple-made chips in Macs.


__Controlling your supply chain helps control your destiny...__  Vertical integration can help lower costs, boost profitability, and avoid situations like Casper's. Casper isn't vertically integrated. That puts it at a disadvantage compared to competitors like __[Purple](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PRPL)__, which largely controls its manufacturing and saw sales [jump](http://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001643953/028ea4fb-bc38-454b-ab2b-007cf9984c33.pdf) 60% last quarter. Purple stock has nearly 3X'd in value this year while Casper is down by half. 

Casper's sales fall despite record interest in its mattresses (it needs to get vertical)

💉 Moderna's big(ger) vax announcement

__Drooling all over the S-1...__ __DoorDash__ released its IPO [paperwork](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1792789/000119312520292381/d752207ds1.htm) on Friday, and didn't hold back with the high-res food pics (*so many poke bowls*). Companies that are going public have to file a [prospectus](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/sOzjBhgQvJpvUd5VOqxOd/what-is-a-prospectus/)  with the SEC so investors can get informed. Here's what DoorDash delivered:

- __#1 food deliverer in the US:__ DoorDash has an enviable 50% share of the market. Uber Eats has 26%, Grubhub has 16%, and Postmates (which Uber's buying) has 7%.
- __Sales more than tripled__ to $1.9B from January to September compared to the same period in 2019. 18M customers, 1M Dashers, and 390K merchants now use DoorDash's platform. 
- __It's still not profitable.__ Buuuut: DoorDash significantly cut its net loss from $533M in the 2019 period to $149M in 2020. 

__Pad thai, Netflix, repeat...__ DoorDash's growth was driven by the pandemic/lockdowns, which also boosted __[Grubhub](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GRUB)__ and __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ — their stocks are up over 50% this year. But it warned investors growth may not continue at the same appetizing pace. To continue growing, DoorDash needs to expand *beyond* the saturated, hyper-competitive food delivery market.


_When you "Accio" the order to the wrong address_

__DoorDash is going full "Delivery Everything"...__  It bragged that if it can deliver unmelted ice cream, it can deliver *anything* — and that's exactly what it's trying to do. In addition to restaurant and grocery delivery, DoorDash partnered with __[CVS](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CVS)__ for pharmacy delivery and __[Macy's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/M)__ for clothing delivery. Mom-and-pop shops could be next. An all-in-one platform could keep "[promiscuous](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3o0KQAYYbRpqhqULwfOWaD/articles/7m8VoFteAIgGsRXEzlIssk)" customers loyal and reduce the need for endless promos. That's why DoorDash mentioned "food" 169 times in its S-1 and "logistics" *200 times* (#priorities). 


DoorDash drops juicy details pre-IPO and reveals its biggest ambition

__Big vax energy...__ __[BioNTech](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BNTX)__ stock soared 15% for the week after the German biotech [announced](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/0CzIbmfTQ6Qo8bhIShm43) the COVID-19 vaccine it developed with __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ was more than *90%* effective in final-stage trials. Dr. Fauci said a vaccine could be approved at 50% to 60% effectiveness, so 90% is huge — but results are preliminary. BioNTech also got a boost from its earnings: quarterly sales from customer contracts more than doubled from last year.

__Slap a sticker on...__ for "cool factor." __[VF Corp](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VFC)__ is the uninspiringly-named company behind Vans, North Face, and Timberland — now VF is [snatching](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/7Fj68keB7bfNj5pY6w0Zjy/) up Supreme for $2.1B. The iconic streetwear brand is best known for its red logo (*it's everywhere*).  VF shares soared last week, making the biggest 1-day jump in over 30 years. Investors hope Supreme's digital savvy will rub off on VF — but some worry Supreme could *lose* its hype factor as a part of VF. 


Highs

Who's up...

__Muted and booted...__ __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ shares dropped 19% last week on the Pfizer vaccine breakthrough. Good news for "Reopening Stocks" like airlines could mean bad news for pandemic winners like __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PTON)__, whose stock plunged 20%. An effective vax would help bring back face-to-face, decreasing our (desperate) reliance on the Zoom life. Also potentially concerning for Zoom: its competitor __Hopin__ grew from 5K users to 3.5M users this year, and just [raised](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/1D3tkm10PGnxrVOWgEDFKP/articles/3IrW9GmRmh51vbQd8pm5w3/) $125M. 

__Not McLovin' it..__ __[Beyond Meat](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BYND)__ stock plunged 20% for the week as investors chewed on two protein-packed patties of puzzling news. First: Beyond served up a surprising quarterly loss and disappointingly low sales. Second:  __[McDonald's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD)__ [unveiled](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/6gVay06Q0kP8nGkAhbg790/) its *own* plant-based burger — "the McPlant" (niiiice). Beyond said it co-created the McPlant patty, but McDonald's made zero mention of that in its announcement. Awk.


Lows

...and who's down

🥙 DoorDash delivers an IPO filing 

__Ariana Grande fans are having withdrawal...__ and concert giant __[Live Nation](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYV)__ is saying "thank u, next" to 2020 (*48 more days*). Live Nation's sales were down 95% last quarter because it was 0% live. The previous quarter was even *worse*, since festival season was cancelled (#Nochella). Still...

- __83% of concert-goers *kept* their tickets__ for rescheduled shows last quarter, keeping Live Nation's refund rate low. It still lost over $1B since January.
- __Live Nation has already [sold](https://deadline.com/2020/11/live-nation-sees-live-events-returning-at-scale-next-summer-without-concerts-q3-sales-plunge-94-1234609979/) 19M tickets__ to 4K+ concerts scheduled for 2021, so it's invested in them actually *happening*. 

__Do I have to take off my shoes?...__ Live Nation's Ticketmaster unit is [reportedly](https://www.billboard.com/articles/business/touring/9481166/ticketmaster-vaccine-check-concerts-plan) working on a TSA-like plan to go live. Ticketmaster wants to check your COVID status before you step foot in its venues.  

- __After buying a ticket,__ you verify that you've been vaccinated OR that you've tested negative for COVID-19 no more than three days before the concert.
- __Your test results get delivered__ to a health pass company like CLEAR. If you test negative, CLEAR tells Ticketmaster you're good to rock.


_"I said I want to do it live!"_

Rock

__This could be a framework for all live gatherings...__ Live Nation wants to lead the "Return to Live." A vaccine *could* be widely available by April, as Dr. Fauci [suggested](https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/11/10/nation/dr-fauci-says-covid-19-vaccine-could-be-widely-available-by-april/) following the promising __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ [news](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/0CzIbmfTQ6Qo8bhIShm43). But until enough Americans get vaccinated (could be a while), Live Nation will have to prove it can operate safely enough. If it succeeds, others like __[Eventbrite](https://robinhood.com/stocks/EB)__ could follow.


Live Nation wants to become the TSA of concerts to make sure 2021 is live

__But does it have Ludicrous mode?...__ __[Ford](https://robinhood.com/stocks/F)__ is [working](https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-fords-go-fast-ceo-a-humble-van-looms-large-11605189833?mod=business_lead_pos1) on an electric version of its classic Transit model. The nearly-windowless van reminds you of a sketchy UberPool — it's actually the top-selling van in America, used by companies for jobs like plumbing and delivery. Now Ford wants to give it some sex appeal...

- __The e-Transit will start at $45K__ and is set to drop in 2021. It could attract businesses looking to save on fuel costs. Also... 
- __Maintenance costs will be 40% lower__ over eight years for the electric vs. the gas version, according to Ford (no oil changes).

__It's not just about electric wheels...__ Ford's also making a subscription play with digital add-ons to help customers track and manage their fleets. Currently, it charges $20 to $25 per vehicle/month for those services. It's expanding those offerings with the new e-fleets: 

- __Driver-coaching:__ Remember those "How's my driving?" bumper stickers? This is like the techy version of that. Voice commands nag drivers if they're speeding or idling for too long (fuuun). 
- __Juice check:__ Owners can remotely check how much charge each van has left, or preprogram them to recharge when rates are lower.

Subscribe

__Subs could be Ford's future profit puppy...__ With recurring revenue from digital subscriptions, Ford can continue to profit off your purchase even *after* it sells you the car. Companies are obsessed with data because it helps them run more efficiently: if Ford can save companies money with these connected data services, companies could be willing to pay extra.


Ford is betting big on a data-driven electric version of its Transit van

🎤  Live Nation's (COVID-free) live summer 

__Napping during the earnings call...__ __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ just reported quarterly earnings, which seem to be its only mildly spotlight-worthy event of 2020 — and they weren't so thrilling, either. 

- __Active riders jumped 44%__ from the previous (horrible) quarter, signaling a mild recovery in ride-hail. But they were still *down* 44% from 2019.
- __Lyft lost $460M__, nearly as much as in the same quarter last year. But it's hoping to be [EBITDA](https://learn.robinhood.com/articles/52pskmpn39o7Y5RhE4APiH/what-is-ebitda/) profitable next year.

__Whip up the scorecard...__ While Lyft has been doing the least this year, __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__'s been aggressively expanding its products and making big moves:

- __Food delivery:__ Uber agreed to [buy](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/q4J6y6mMs3jtkXwdTmJlG/articles/4C8Nmudmpz9QsUYbnLD5Hr/) __Postmates__ for $2.7B, while UberEats orders more than doubled during the pandemic.
- __Logistics:__ Uber Freight's gig trucking business [raised](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/q4J6y6mMs3jtkXwdTmJlG/articles/4C8Nmudmpz9QsUYbnLD5Hr/) $500M and is now worth $3.3B.
- __Public Transit:__ Uber started [selling](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2zpVwVyEiGyPCvumSTvoc8/articles/6yN6Pa4Rv06oCT8tXPdeL5/) its software for public transport use, and bought public transit-focused __Routematch__. 
- __Micromobility:__ Uber led a big investment in __Lime__ and offers both Lime *and* its own Jump electric scooters/bikes in-app.
- __Aerial mobility:__ Uber Elevate partnered with GE for "Uber Air" helicopter ride-sharing (ETA: 2023).
- __Rides:__ Uber's [launching](https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/10/uber-will-now-let-users-book-rides-30-days-in-advance-and-pick-a-favorite-driver/) "Reserve" this week to let riders book their fave drivers in advance.


_When Lyft starts telling you its "story" on the plane_

Yawn

__Lyft's fail is probably reflected in its stock ...__ Lyft offers bike/scooter sharing and has [tested](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lyft-delivery/lyft-launches-meal-grocery-delivery-service-in-several-u-s-cities-idUSKCN21X33G) essential deliveries for businesses in a few cities (food, groceries, etc). Besides that, it's  a pure-play Rides company — not great during a pandemic (even with the Prop 22 [victory](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7jMUu1TK8PviqbKCFjQhjC/articles/f06IOakKwXbXOcwTVNbjX)). That's likely why Lyft stock is down 16% this year, while Uber is *up* 49%.

Lyft's boring 2020 is reflected in its stock price (just look at Uber)

__Overheard on marketing...__ *The Hollywood Bowl of virtual conferences – or Zoom's socially adept cousin?* Virtual conferencing startup __Hopin__ wants to be your home for live online events. But it's biggest strength might be impeccable timing: it officially launched in June 2019, just around six months before... *you know what*. The glow-up since March 2020:

- __User explosion:__ In eight months,  Hopin grew from 5K users and 1.8K event hosts to *3.5M users* and 50K host orgs (including NATO, the UN, and Slack).
- __Cash explosion:__ Hopin went from basically 0 to $20M in annual sales, and says it's now profitable. It just [raised](https://techcrunch.com/2020/11/10/hopin-raises-125m-for-its-online-events-platform-on-the-back-of-surging-growth/) $125M in venture cash and is valued at over $2B (#DoubleUnicorn).

__Burrito for lunch...__ means you're turning off your __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ cam (and mic). Hoppin's [positioning](https://hopin.com/blog/how-hopin-is-different-from-other-platforms) itself as a more social version of "other platforms" (major Zoom shade). It lets you exchange virtual business cards, fill out polls, and explore interactive "rooms" and expo booths. It also has "backstages" for speakers and branding placements for event sponsors. *And* it's building an Eventbrite-like market that helps you discover events.


Burrito

__Hoppin could thrive post-pandemic, too...__ The big __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ vax [news](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/5gdq4YMCKXJLFy9oXr6lUV/articles/0CzIbmfTQ6Qo8bhIShm43) sent Zoom stock plunging on Tuesday — investors are already envisioning a return to normalcy. But Hopin says it was born to be a “hybrid” service that complements physical events. That's something that could stick post-pandemic, even though the growth won't be as huge. 

Zoom competitor Hopin raises $125M to be the Live Nation of virtual events

🚙 Lyft's uneventful 2020 

__Tired of living in Sephora's (eye)shadow...__ __[Ulta Beauty](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ULTA)__ needs a place to crash  this pandemic cuffing season — so it's [moving in](https://www.wsj.com/articles/ulta-beauty-to-get-shops-inside-target-stores-11605021435?mod=business_lead_pos3) with __[Target](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TGT)__. But Target's offering more than a blow-up mattress: it'll set aside 1K square-foot sections in over 100 Target stores for Ulta mini-shops starting in 2021. Tarjay's planning to expand the beauty chain to hundreds more stores over time. Ulta stock got a 7% glow-up on the partnership.

__"In the red"...__ every company's lipstick shade nightmare. Ulta narrowly avoided a loss last quarter as profit plunged nearly 95%. Most of its sales come from its 1K+ stores, which were forced to close for most of the quarter. But the tide could turn with this key partnership: 

- __Ulta's getting an "Essential Shield."__ Even if lockdowns get reimposed, grocery-slinging Target will get to stay open.
- __Ulta's getting unintentional exposure.__ You’re not likely to hit up Ulta for lipliner (masks and Zoom killed that). But you might pick up face serum on your way to buy hummus.
- __It's getting featured on Target’s website and app__ — prime real-estate for a company that badly needs to up its digital game.


_When they move you from Aisle 5 Bread to the Ulta store_

Blend

__Inception Retail could be the future...__ This store-within-a-store model sounds a lot like department stores. But malls and department stores are [filing](https://www.wsj.com/articles/malls-file-for-bankruptcy-or-shut-their-doors-as-pandemic-pain-spreads-11605013664?mod=business_lead_pos4) for bankruptcy and shuttering in droves. Meanwhile, __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ is [toying](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/09/amazon-wants-to-use-jc-penney-stores-as-fulfillment-centers---report.html) with the idea of turning bankrupt __JC Penney__ and __Sears__ into fulfillment centers. To fill this void, pandemic winners Target and __[Walmart](https://robinhood.com/stocks/WMT)__ have expanded their clothes and cosmetics offerings. Inception Retail is the next push into malls' territory.

Ulta Beauty stores move into Target with the "Inception Retail" model 

__Serious pod head...__ __[Spotify](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SPOT)__ is majorly pod addicted. In the past few years, the Swedish streamer has sealed deals for shows from big names like Joe Rogan, Michelle Obama, and Kim K. Spotify also [shelled](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2NAQjqWOY8CUQ4E7cSgLSV/articles/ib1obLuM7DcHI0MDKjbms/) out over $500M to buy companies like The Ringer (pod network), Gimlet (pod producer), Parcast (original shows), and Anchor (pod recording software). Now...

- __Spotify is buying Megaphone for $235M.__ The pod-tech firm helps podcasters with production, ads, and audience metrics. But its real selling point is...
- __"Targeted Marketplace"__ — this service lets advertisers target listeners by interest, demographics, and buying history. Like Facebook, for your ears.

__You're special...__  Not everyone got the same Function of Beauty ad mid-pod — Megaphone knows you're worried about split hairs. Advertisers buy slots targeting different audiences across the 5.5K+ shows that use Megaphone, instead of specific pods. With this acquisition, Spotify gains all of Megaphone's customers. It can also use Megaphone's tech to improve/expand its *own* ad tech.

Podiction

__Podcasting is still going through puberty...__ It grew three feet over the past two years, and now its old basketball shorts look like  Speedos (awkward). Podcasting now has over [100M](https://www.wsj.com/articles/spotify-buys-podcast-tech-firm-megaphone-11605016803?mod=business_lead_pos12) monthly listeners, but less than $1B/year is spent on pod ads. Targeting/measurement on pods is way less precise than social media targeting, so advertisers aren't shelling out as much $$$. Spotify's hoping to change that with this deal.


Spotify drops a quarter billion on a pod-cquistion to help it grow out of puberty

💄 Ulta moves into Target

__Biggest vax flex yet...__ Big pharma __[Pfizer](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PFE)__ and German biotech __[BioNTech](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BNTX)__ [said](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/covid-vaccine-pfizer-drug-is-more-than-90percent-effective-in-preventing-infection.html) their jointly developed COVID-19 vaccine was more than *90%* effective in Phase 3 trials — that's huge. For reference:

- __50% to 60% effectiveness:__ Dr. Fauci has said this rate would be acceptable to approve a vaccine (the flu vaccine [is](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm) only 40% to 60% effective).
- __60% to 70%:__ Health experts say this rating would be a big win. Pfizer's 90%+ would be a wild success — but results are preliminary and haven't been peer-reviewed. 

__Please get it mRN-ASAP...__ If Pfizer's vax gets FDA-approval, it would be the 1st mRNA vaccine *ever* approved for human use. Unlike OG vaccines (which use a weakened virus to generate an immune response), mRNA ones *teach* cells to destroy the virus. 

- __[Moderna](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MRNA) stock popped__  too because it's *also* in final stage trials of an mRNA vaccine. __[AstraZeneca](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AZN)__, which is in final trials for a traditional vax, dropped.  
- __Reopening stocks__ majorly soared: __[AMC](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMC)__ was up 51%, __[Carnival](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CCL)__ was up 39%, and __[Delta](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DAL)__ spiked 17%. "Pandemic Winners" like __[Netflix](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NFLX)__, __[Peloton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PTON)__, and __[Zoom](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ZM)__ all dropped big.
- __BTW:__ Vaccines usually take around 10 years from development to approval. This vax is on pace for a record-shattering timeframe.


__Pfizer has a big leg up...__ if others have to compete with a 90% efficacy rate — that's highly attractive to vax-buying countries, even though Pfizer's vax [comes](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/four-reasons-for-encouragement-based-on-pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-results/) with more rollout challenges. Moderna seems the most likely to get similar results (because: #mRNAlife). Pfizer's planning to request FDA emergency use authorization in late November. With approval, Pfizer says it can make 50M doses in 2020 and 1.3B in 2021.


Pfizer and BioNTech say their COVID-19 vaccine is more than 90% effective (whoa)

__Well, this is awkward...__ *or is it just savage*? Yesterday, plant-based icon __[Beyond Meat](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BYND)__ served up a surprising loss and disappointing quarterly sales. *On the same day*, __[McDonald's](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MCD)__ delivered expectation-beating growth and unleashed this on the world: "the McPlant." 

- __The McPlant__ is a (wait for it) plant-based burger [crafted](https://corporate.mcdonalds.com/corpmcd/en-us/our-stories/article/ourstories.menu-items.html) "for McDonald’s, by McDonald’s." Mickey D’s plans to test it in several countries next year. 
- __Beyond Meat__ [says](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/mcdonalds-to-test-mcplant-which-includes-its-own-meat-free-burger-next-year-beyond-meat-shares-fall.html) it co-created the McPlant patty, but McDonald's made zero mention of Beyond in its announcement. Awkward...

__Not feelin' McLovin'...__ Beyond might be feeling a bit used. Last year, McDonald’s began testing a meatless burger ("PLT") in Canada that used Beyond patties. While McDonald's ended that pilot, it clearly saw potential in the meatless, McPlant-based market. Mickey D’s hasn't yet confirmed the supplier, but it won't be making it itself. 


_McDonald's = the Regina George of fast food_

__McDonald's wants all the attention...__ If Beyond is supplying, that could mean a lucrative long-term partnership with America's largest restaurant by sales — would be nice, considering Beyond lost $19M last quarter. But McDonald's clearly isn't showcasing Beyond's brand with McPlant — unlike __[Dunkin'](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DNKN)__ with the Beyond Breakfast sandwich. Beyond might be willing to go anonymous and trade brand recognition for cash recognition.

McDonald's drops "the McPlant" on the same day that Beyond face plants

__Soulless name...__ *soulful brand*. __[VF Corp](https://robinhood.com/stocks/VFC)__ is the unfortunately-named company which owns Vans, North Face, Dickies, and soon... *Supreme*. The popular streetwear/skater brand is best known for its iconic red logo that appears everywhere. Now:

- __Supreme is getting [bought](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-09/vf-to-buy-supreme-for-2-1-billion-to-boost-apparel-brands?sref=q3KSFp38) for $2.1B__ and will become part of VF's publicly-traded stock. It's VF's largest acquisition since it snatched up Timberland in 2011 for $2.3B.
- __VF stock jumped as much as 17%__ yesterday on the news — the most in over 30 years. But it's still down over 20% this year.

__Googling "how to be cool"...__ Slap a Supreme sticker on it. Supreme reeks with "cool factor" — that's something VF needs badly, since most of its brands are past their early 2000s Avril Lavigne peak. Vans and Timbs sales are slowing, and VF has already sold off some of its "declining cool" and industrial workwear brands: Wrangler, Lee, and 7 For All Mankind. 


Beanie

__This is a learn-cquisition...__ Supreme is a master at generating hype, with everything from weekly product releases to buzzy collabs — VF wants to learn its ways. It'll also leverage Supreme's digital strategy and social media prowess to expand its ecommerce channels (#linkinbio). But Supreme's biggest appeal is scarcity. If VF scales it up too much, it might lose that "special" factor — then they'd *both* lose.


Supreme gets bought for $2.1B by Vans-owner VF Corp 

💉 Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough

__Refilling the minibar Fiji bottles...__ *with sink water*. __[Marriott](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MAR)__ miraculously [turned](https://www.wsj.com/articles/marriott-international-posts-3q-profit-11604665677?mod=business_lead_pos3) a profit last quarter by being extra thrifty. It's the world’s largest hotel operator  with over 7K properties across 130+ countries — usually something to brag about, not so much during a world-halting pandemic. Room occupancy went the way of the "wake up call" (near-extinct):

- __Just over a third of rooms__ in North America were booked. European Marriotts were even emptier, at just 1 in 5. BTW: Marriott also owns The Ritz, W, and Sheraton. 
- __RevPAR:__ A metric hotel people are *obsessed* with. It's the average daily room price multiplied by occupancy rate. Marriot's fell nearly 70% from last year. *And yet somehow...*
-  __*Marriott checked in a $100M profit*__ from July to September, compared to a $230M loss in the previous quarter. 

__Continental Breakfast = 1 Eggo waffle...__ __[Hilton](https://robinhood.com/stocks/HLT)__ and __[Hyatt](https://robinhood.com/stocks/H)__ had similar RevPAR plunges as Marriott, but *they* posted losses. How? Travel demand improved a bit from the previous quarter (especially in China), but it's really about cost-slashing...

- __Marriott cut costs by 57%__ — that's almost exactly the same percentage that total sales *fell* from last year. Marriot made 57% less, but spent 57.2% less. That 0.2% extra = profit.


_When you find out there's no more mini shampoo to steal_

Shampoo

__Budgeting is a skill...__ that can be used to make the best of worst-case scenarios. Marriott has fixed costs like rent and insurance (just like us) — but it showed budgeting prowess by precisely cutting everywhere it *could* to turn a profit. Sadly, that [included](https://skift.com/2020/09/08/marriott-to-lay-off-17-percent-of-corporate-headquarters-staff-in-october/) tens of thousands of furloughs in March and corporate layoffs in October.

Marriott turns a surprise profit despite near-empty hotels (it's a budgeting pro)

__Saved by the ballot...__ Gig driving companies [scored](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/7jMUu1TK8PviqbKCFjQhjC/articles/f06IOakKwXbXOcwTVNbjX) big after California voters passed Prop 22, exempting them from CA's AB5 law. __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ and __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ stock soared more than 30% for the week, since they won't have to reclassify drivers as employees (think: healthcare, PTO). Also exempted: __DoorDash__, __Postmates__, and __Instacart__. AB5 would've made hiring drivers more expensive, making these chronically unprofitable apps lose even more money. 

__Drunk ordered a couch...__ *from the couch*. Millennial furniture favorite __[Wayfair](https://robinhood.com/stocks/W)__ just proved that the pandemic "House Hype" is still strong. Quarterly sales shot up 67%, and Wayfair even made a comfy profit (after *losing* ~$300M during the same three months last year). It's using techy data to find out what's most popular, then crank out 10,000 versions of it. The stock popped 21% for the week, and has more than 3X'd this year.

__Missing the movie magic...__ __[AMC](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMC)__ is desperate for a happy ending. The world’s largest movie theater chain lost nearly $1B last quarter. Sales plunged *91%* from last year as theaters were shut for most of the quarter. Now 80% of its US theaters are open, but limited capacity and blockbuster delays are choking sales. The cash-starved chain is looking to raise up to $50M by [selling](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/02/amc-seeks-stock-sale-to-raise-50-million-to-stave-off-bankruptcy.html) 20M shares to stave off bankruptcy. Happy ending = survival.

__Surprise squashing...__ Chinese fintech giant __Ant Group__ was *supposed* to go public last week in the world's biggest IPO. Its mega-app Alipay has over 1B users and offers every money-related service imaginable. Problem? Ant's founder Jack Ma made a (poorly-timed) speech [criticizing](https://www.reuters.com/article/ant-group-ipo-suspension-regulators/how-billionaire-jack-ma-fell-to-earth-and-took-ants-mega-ipo-with-him-idUSKBN27L2GX) China for stifling innovation. Chinese regulators [squashed](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/3Y16VU6wsQpOaP5bwzUgFf/articles/10lyNbTzg1HbB3563ygUqe) the historic IPO just two days before it was scheduled. Ma's other company __[Alibaba](https://robinhood.com/stocks/BABA)__ — aka: the "Amazon of China" — owns 33% of Ant, so the stock dropped on the news. 


🏨 Marriott's shocking pandemic profit

__Swipe Night is the new Date Night...__ Forget a five-course meal at Catch — the biggest date nights this summer were happening on Tinder. __[Match Group](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MTCH)__ (aka: the Godfather of online dating) grew sales 18% last quarter as social distancing turned into social swiping.

- __Average subscribers jumped 12%__ to nearly 11M, as the possibility of meet-cutes vanished. People shelled out more $$$ for premium swipey perks.
- __Tinder's sales grew 15%__ thanks to Tinder Premium and virtual events like Swipe Night, which reeled in 15M viewers and record engagement. 
- __As the flirtiest of all stocks,__ Match is getting popular— shares are up 60% in 2020. But Tinder isn't its only asset...

__Tell me about yourself...__  Over half of Match's sales come from Tinder, but *non*-Tinder brands saw the biggest growth last quarter. The shining star was Hinge, which more than [tripled](https://s22.q4cdn.com/279430125/files/doc_financials/2020/q3/Earnings-Letter-Q3-2020-vF.pdf) sales from last year and nearly 2X'd downloads. Before Match invested in 2018, Hinge downloads were dropping. Since Match took Hinge under its Cupid wings, downloads have consistently grown. Clever marketing campaigns like "Designed to Be Deleted" were [key](https://redantler.com/work/case-study/hinge-campaign) to that.


"_What about Hinge? Have you tried Hinge?_"

Date

__The focus is variety...__ To successfully penetrate the TAM (total addressable market) of singles around the globe, Match is going both broad *and* narrow. It's targeting specific markets with “demographic dating apps” like Chispa for Latinos/Latinas and BLK for Black singles. Given their success, it followed on with Upward for Christian singles. With variety, Match can attract users who want a more tailored experience (or don't like the sound of Tinder).

Tinder-owner Match gets high on pandemic loneliness and remote romance

__Bank of Nook just got a fat deposit...__ __[Nintendo](https://robinhood.com/stocks/NTDOY)__ released its financials for the six months ended September 30th, and things are looking super good for old Mario.

- __Profit more than tripled__ as Nintendo sold 14M+ copies of hit game *Animal Crossing: New Horizons* — apparently, fictional island utopias fare well during pandemics. 
- __Sales jumped 73%__ as *Animal Crossing* and Mario drove big software *and* hardware sales. Nintendo [sold](https://www.engadget.com/nintendo-switch-lite-sales-paper-mario-3d-all-stars-earnings-082905737.html) nearly 7M Switch consoles in just the last 3-month quarter.

__Cool hardware needs cool software...__ to be worth anything. The Switch has been around for almost four years, but the  *Animal Crossing* frenzy turbocharged sales. Still, there are two Bowsers that could put a damper in Nintendo's 2020 glory...

- __Console Wars:__ Next week, two long-awaited consoles are dropping (*on the same day*): __[Sony](https://robinhood.com/stocks/SNE)__'s PS5 and __[Microsoft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/MSFT)__'s Xbox Series X. Switch will get some fresh hot competition.
- __Cloud Gaming:__ Games that you can play with just a laptop and WiFi are a threat to Nintendo. Sony has Playstation Now, Google has Stadia, and Microsoft [has](https://www.digitaltrends.com/gaming/microsoft-xbox-project-xcloud-really-is-a-netflix-for-games/) its "Netflix for games." Even __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ and __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ offer cloud gaming.


Switch

__Nintendo is family-friendly...__ It's the Apple MacBook to Microsoft's PS5 "PC." It's winning with wholesome, fun-for-all games like *Animal Crossing* and *Super Mario Origami King* — not *Assassin's Creed* and *GTA*. Since its Game Boy days, Nintendo has built a rep as the easy-to-use, less-hardcore gaming option. This mainstream appeal gives it a leg up over competitors.   

Nintendo levels up on Animal Crossing hype, but now the Console Wars are here

🔥 Tinder's flirtiest quarter 

__Saved by the ballot...__ App-based driving companies are majorly relieved after CA voters said "Yes" to Prop 22. That exempts them from CA's AB5 law, which would've forced them to reclassify gig drivers as employees (think: healthcare, PTO, paid sick leave). 

- __"The Ride Scare"...__ In August, __[Uber](https://robinhood.com/stocks/UBER)__ and __[Lyft](https://robinhood.com/stocks/LYFT)__ said they'd shut down in CA because it was forcing them to follow AB5 (cue: panic). Hours before the shutdown, regulators said they could wait until the Prop 22 vote.
- __$200M and 200M emails later...__ Uber, Lyft, __DoorDash__, __Postmates__, and __Instacart__ spent $200M to support the Prop (and spammed us with notifications). It was the [most](https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-voters-exempt-uber-lyft-doordash-from-having-to-reclassify-drivers-11604476276?mod=business_lead_pos1) expensive campaign for any ballot measure in CA history. 

__Deliver the deets...__ This law would've made hiring drivers more expensive, making these chronically unprofitable apps even *more* unprofitable. Now they'll [save](https://www.newsweek.com/california-voters-saved-gig-economy-workers-may-pay-heavy-price-1544863) billions of $$$ in a key market. Uber and Lyft shares soared more than 10% yesterday. 

- __Drivers get:__ New benefits like health insurance if you work 15 hours or more per week and at least 120% of minimum wage. They also retain flexibility to work when they want.
- __Riders avoid:__ Up to 2X price increases and fewer available drivers. Uber would likely have dramatically reduced drivers if the Prop failed.


_Christmas came early for Uber and Lyft_

Deliver

__It's a massive blow to AB5...__ Gig companies were the main target of this law. Now that they're exempt, that just leaves other independent contractors like freelancers. But AB5 has caused some companies to *stop* hiring CA freelancers to avoid paying them as employees. Vox [cut](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/16/business/media/vox-media-california-job-cuts.html) 200 freelance writers to comply with AB5. That's why CA has been handing out exemptions and loosening requirements.


Uber, Lyft, and DoorDash score a gigantic win as CA voters save the gig economy

__*2,000 years later*...__ (in SpongeBob voice). As Americans watched election results slowly trickle in yesterday, only one thing seemed clear: the likelihood of a divided Congress (the sequel). This Democrat-controlled House and  Republican-controlled Senate excited one sector: Big Tech. 

- __A divided Congress makes it harder__ to pass legislation against tech giants. Both sides have major beef with Big Tech, but their grievances are *different* (sometimes, opposite).
- __A Blue Wave in Congress__ could've brought big changes to Big Tech. That doesn't seem to be happening, reducing the chance of major reform.
- __So investors boosted Big Tech.__ The Nasdaq surged yesterday as __[Facebook](https://robinhood.com/stocks/FB)__ stock jumped 8% and __[Google](https://robinhood.com/stocks/GOOGL)__ and __[Amazon](https://robinhood.com/stocks/AMZN)__ spiked 6%.

__Big Gambling...__ also made some election-related moves. Voters in Maryland, Louisiana, and South Dakota said "Yes" to legalized sports betting, sending __[DraftKings](https://robinhood.com/stocks/DKNG)__ and __[Penn National Gaming](https://robinhood.com/stocks/PENN)__ shares up over 5%. Also making waves:

- __Big Weed:__ Arizona, New Jersey, Montana, and South Dakota [voted](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/11/04/4-states-vote-to-legalize-recreational-marijuana-use-arizona-montana-nj-south-dakota/?sh=542ad771558f) to legalize recreational marijuana. Oregon took it a step further, becoming the 1st to [legalize](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/04/oregon-becomes-first-state-to-legalize-magic-mushrooms-as-more-states-ease-drug-laws.html) magic shrooms for medical treatment. 
- __Buuut...__ Big Pot stocks __[Canopy](https://robinhood.com/stocks/CGC)__, __[Aurora](https://robinhood.com/stocks/ACB)__, and __[Tilray](https://robinhood.com/stocks/TLRY)__ actually *dropped* because they [want](https://snacks.robinhood.com/newsletters/2WSPzJTYnHk30wYwZxmDQO/articles/46Vmobj3VwyQorpkAl0ghs) legalization at the *federal* level. A Republican Senate makes that unlikely.

Track

__The 1st reaction isn’t always the long-term one...__ Stocks react to news all the time — but long-term, there's a lot we still don't know. For example, it's possible that a divided House *could* pass laws that  significantly hurt Big Tech — or [green light](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/09/04/marijuana-house-vote-federal-legalization-first-time/5678068002/) weed. 