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Record-high coffee prices poised to keep rising on upcoming Brazil tariffs

Anyone who relies on a morning cup of coffee will have noticed how much their caffeine kick has been setting them back of late.

Now, as the Trump administration prepares to impose a 50% tariff on imports from Brazil to the US from August 1, people may have to fork out even more.

Coffee prices have recently surged to an all-time high, hitting $7.93 per pound of ground roast coffee in May — up from $5.99 in the same period last year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data first reported by The New York Times.

Coffee prices soaring
Sherwood News

The tariffs, announced on Wednesday, could see the world’s largest coffee grower halt new shipments to the world’s largest coffee drinker altogether if enacted. Per Reuters, the US imported more than 8.1 million 60-kilogram bags — one-third of its total consumption — of the product from Brazil last year.

With coffee supplies already tightening as droughts have squeezed harvests, wholesale costs could rise as much as 50% if these tariffs take effect, the Times reported, which could translate to a price hike of $0.25 a cup.

It’s worth noting that coffee drinkers have had it pretty good for years. In fact, adjusted for inflation, the price of coffee hasn’t gone up that much relative to other stuff. Using the BLS’s Inflation Calculator, had coffee tracked the wider rate of inflation over the last 45 years, the $3.21 per pound that we paid back in 1980 would actually be closer to $13 per pound today.

Coffee prices have recently surged to an all-time high, hitting $7.93 per pound of ground roast coffee in May — up from $5.99 in the same period last year, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data first reported by The New York Times.

Coffee prices soaring
Sherwood News

The tariffs, announced on Wednesday, could see the world’s largest coffee grower halt new shipments to the world’s largest coffee drinker altogether if enacted. Per Reuters, the US imported more than 8.1 million 60-kilogram bags — one-third of its total consumption — of the product from Brazil last year.

With coffee supplies already tightening as droughts have squeezed harvests, wholesale costs could rise as much as 50% if these tariffs take effect, the Times reported, which could translate to a price hike of $0.25 a cup.

It’s worth noting that coffee drinkers have had it pretty good for years. In fact, adjusted for inflation, the price of coffee hasn’t gone up that much relative to other stuff. Using the BLS’s Inflation Calculator, had coffee tracked the wider rate of inflation over the last 45 years, the $3.21 per pound that we paid back in 1980 would actually be closer to $13 per pound today.

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US and Iran trade strikes overnight amid peace talks

Hours after President Donald Trump dismissed a report regarding a deal to restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the US and Iran exchanged fresh strikes early on Thursday.

Despite an ongoing ceasefire as the countries hold talks to end the conflict, the US carried out new strikes inside Iran, The Guardian reports, prompting a retaliatory attack from Iran on a US airbase in Kuwait.

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Tom Jones

The UAE’s OPEC exit will hit the group in the barrels

After just shy of 60 years in OPEC, its membership even predating its status as a nation-state, the United Arab Emirates yesterday announced its shocking departure from the oil production group, effective May 1, as the knock-on effects of the Iran war continue to play out across the Middle East and the energy landscape.

For context, the UAE produces the third-highest amount of oil in the group, per April data and OPEC’s latest set of annual statistics.

According to the cartel’s 2025 Annual Statistical Bulletin, the OPEC group was collectively exporting some 19 million barrels of crude oil a day last year, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for some 14% of that daily output.

UAExit means UAExit

The nation, whose energy minister told Reuters yesterday that the decision was taken “after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production” and wasn’t made following discussions with any other country, made up a healthy share of the group’s total confirmed crude oil reserves, as well.

OPEC exports chart
Sherwood News

Of the 12 nations in the core group, which was founded by just five oil superpowers back in September 1960, only two (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) exported more barrels of crude oil daily, pumping out 3.36 million and 6.05 million barrels, respectively, each day to nations around the world.

For its part, the UAE said it will “continue its responsible role by gradually and thoughtfully increasing production, in line with demand and market conditions,” per the official state news agency. Clearly, the nation now wants a little more control of just how much oil it can pump around the world, with the UAE having to eat a large proportion of lost revenues due to its healthy abundance and OPEC restrictions.

According to the cartel’s 2025 Annual Statistical Bulletin, the OPEC group was collectively exporting some 19 million barrels of crude oil a day last year, with the United Arab Emirates accounting for some 14% of that daily output.

UAExit means UAExit

The nation, whose energy minister told Reuters yesterday that the decision was taken “after a careful look at current and future policies related to level of production” and wasn’t made following discussions with any other country, made up a healthy share of the group’s total confirmed crude oil reserves, as well.

OPEC exports chart
Sherwood News

Of the 12 nations in the core group, which was founded by just five oil superpowers back in September 1960, only two (Iraq and Saudi Arabia) exported more barrels of crude oil daily, pumping out 3.36 million and 6.05 million barrels, respectively, each day to nations around the world.

For its part, the UAE said it will “continue its responsible role by gradually and thoughtfully increasing production, in line with demand and market conditions,” per the official state news agency. Clearly, the nation now wants a little more control of just how much oil it can pump around the world, with the UAE having to eat a large proportion of lost revenues due to its healthy abundance and OPEC restrictions.

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