Kalshi cofounder and CEO Tarek Mansour (Diarmuid Greene/Getty Images)

Americans may (finally) be able to bet on US elections

A judge's ruling could open the door for Americans to bet on US election prediction markets.

9/10/24 4:19PM

Polymarket has been one of the most-talked about companies during this election cycle, as the prediction market site has become a go-to source for tracking election odds. Nearly $760 million has been wagered on the outcome of the presidential election on Polymarket through August 2024, and even Bloomberg has now incorporated the company’s election odds data into its terminals.

The irony of Polymarket’s success is that it can’t operate in the United States.

After the CFTC fined Polymarket in January 2022 and ordered it to wind down its markets that “do not comply with the Commodity Exchange Act and applicable CFTC regulations,” the prediction market platform moved its operations overseas, and Americans have had no way to trade the US election markets (except through the use of VPNs, of course). However, that may be changing soon.

Kalshi, a New York-based prediction market platform that offers a variety of US regulator-approved event contracts, won a federal lawsuit against the CFTC regarding its plan to offer contracts based on which political party would control the House and Senate after the November election.

For context, Kalshi received CFTC approval to operate as a contract market in the US in 2020, and on August 29 of this year, the New York-based company was approved to operate as a derivatives clearing organization. However, the CFTC blocked Kalshi from offering election contracts in 2023, concerned that “they would involve unlawful gaming and other activities not in the public’s interest.” Kalshi subsequently sued the CFTC in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, and last Friday, Judge Jia M. Cobb ruled in Kalshi’s favor.

The CFTC has since filed a motion to ask Judge Cobb to stay her order for 14 days after publishing her opinion, but, assuming the CFTC declines to appeal and/or loses an appeal, it looks like Americans will soon have access to at least one election betting market. Sherwood reached out to Kalshi regarding a possible timeline for this market to go live, but the company declined to share any details.

So what does this mean for the prediction market…market? First, it's important to note that this lawsuit only concerned two election markets: control of the House and the Senate. However, depending on Judge Cobb’s opinion and the CFTC’s response, this ruling could open the door for Kalshi to launch an expanded list of regulator-approved election contracts, including the outcome of the presidential election.

Additionally, Kalshi may be able to attract more institutional money to its election markets. In April 2024, Susquehanna International Group, Jeff Yass’s trading firm, launched a trading desk for event contracts, and the firm planned to act as a market maker for transactions on Kalshi. With regulator approval and a market maker on board, Kalshi is well-positioned to handle seven-figure position sizes that would help attract institutional money.

My question is: what comes after the election cycle? Obviously, the presidential election has garnered a lot of eyeballs, but it only happens once every four years. I’m curious to see if Kalshi will be able to build off election momentum (assuming that the company is able to launch its election markets) and continue to attract more capital to its other offerings, such as inflation readings and Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Tom Jones4h

Prime Day is here again and Amazon’s subscription service has never been more popular

Well, it’s that time of year again: many have made their wish lists, people are scraping together the money they’ve saved to pick out a perfect gift, some are presumably leaving out refreshments for the weary delivery drivers and, more and more, drones.

It’s Amazon Prime Day — meaning that it’s the second day of the four-day promotional event that Amazon still calls Prime Day — of course, and it’s even come early this year, with the company bringing the period into late June from July, when it’s been traditionally held for the last five years.

The Prime Age

Alongside the eyes and endless clicks that the arbitrary stream of listicles on “The Best Prime Day Deals” that almost every media outlet pours into, Amazon will also be cheering the fact that there’s now more Prime users than ever before to devour the retailer and its sellers’ sometimes-contested “discounts.” Indeed, according to the latest annual estimates from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP), there were just over 200 million American shoppers using Amazon’s massive subscription service at the end of 2025.

Max Knoblauch6/15/26

Electronic Arts launches a platform to put more ads in its games

Video game publishing giant EA launched a new platform on Monday designed to make the process of selling immersive ad space in its popular games easier.

The company says the platform, called EA Advertising, allows brands to “integrate directly into gameplay through dynamic, real-time placements, from stadium signage to custom in-game content.”

More so than other studios, EA has incorporated advertising into its most popular titles. As Kotaku points out, the company’s ad efforts stretch as far back as 2006. Several of its sports franchises already feature partnerships with brands like Visa, Lowe’s, Red Bull, and PepsiCo.

In-game advertising hasn’t exactly been embraced by fans, but industry experts expect it to ramp up as companies seek more revenue to offset higher games budgets and surging memory costs. EA rival Take-Two has taken a different approach, with CEO Strauss Zelnick recently saying the company was “not at risk of doing brand partnerships” in the forthcoming “Grand Theft Auto VI,” and that ads in full-price games seems “unfair.”

The $55 billion deal to take EA private, led by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, is set to close at the end of this month. Being the largest leveraged buyout in history, EA will likely look for more ways to boost revenue to cover interest payments.

Electronic Arts Makes Push for Ad Dollars Tied to Sports

Millie Giles6/11/26

JM Smucker says it sold $1 billion worth of Uncrustables in FY2026

After years of booming sandwich sales, JM Smucker has finally earned a billion-dollar crust.

On Tuesday, the company reported results for fiscal year 2026, highlighting better-than-expected profits driven by higher prices for coffee and sweet baked goods. However, at another point on the earnings call, CEO Mark Smucker pointed to one particularly jammy figure: in line with previous forecasts, the company sold $1 billion worth of its (almost always) crustless sandwiches, Uncrustables, in the last year alone.

Max Knoblauch6/8/26

Paramount reportedly offers concessions to resolve multistate antitrust investigation

Paramount has reportedly offered up some concessions in an effort to prevent an antitrust lawsuit by California and about 10 other states, according to Bloomberg reporting on Monday.

Reuters first reported on the potential suit from a group of unnamed states last week, which could throw a wrench in Paramount’s plans to buy rival Warner Bros. Discovery in a Hollywood megamerger.

The list of concessions is unknown, though Bloomberg previously reported that Paramount is open to divesting some of its kids TV assets to appease EU regulators.

Late last month, reports said US regulators appeared likely to approve the $110 billion merger, following a meeting between Paramount CEO David Ellison and DOJ antitrust staffers.

Paramount Offers Concessions to Head Off State Antitrust Lawsuit

The list of concessions is unknown, though Bloomberg previously reported that Paramount is open to divesting some of its kids TV assets to appease EU regulators.

Late last month, reports said US regulators appeared likely to approve the $110 billion merger, following a meeting between Paramount CEO David Ellison and DOJ antitrust staffers.

$98B ⛽

Max Knoblauch6/8/26

The IATA released its latest financial outlook for the airline industry over the weekend, forecasting a $98 billion jump in the sector’s collective fuel bill. The world’s largest trade group representing airlines expects the oil spike to halve profits by 49% from last year to $23 billion.

The group also expects profit margins to halve year over year, falling from 2025’s 4.2% to 2%. Still, revenue is expected to climb to $1.17 trillion from $1.07 trillion.

A surge in the cost of jet fuel has rocked US and global airlines this year, leading Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, JetBlue, and others to raise fares and ancillary charges like bag fees. Low-cost carriers, which operate on smaller margins, have been squeezed the hardest, resulting in Spirit’s shutdown.

“It’s a tough year for all airlines, especially those whose balance sheets had not yet recovered from COVID. And, of course, for those operating in the Gulf,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh, who added that demand is holding up and about half of passengers expect to spend more on travel this year. “That bodes well for a strong northern summer peak season. The big unknown is how long travelers and shippers can tolerate the higher costs of connectivity.”