not into mezzo
not into mezzo
Timothée Chalamet has upset opera and ballet fans a week before the Oscars
Waymo at stake
Waymo at stake
Alphabet ties a portion of Sundar Pichai’s pay to Waymo for the first time
Crude awakening
Crude awakening
Stock futures tumble as war drives oil above $100 for the first time since 2022
Prediction markets show “One Battle After Another” leads in Oscar race for Best Picture
Oil-sensitive stocks and companies relying on middle-class spending are getting crushed
Amazon’s autonomous ride-hailing service now testing in 10 markets
Microsoft will use Anthropic’s Claude to power “Copilot Cowork”
China’s smartphone slump could strengthen Apple
Live Nation reportedly reaches settlement with DOJ over Ticketmaster
Latest News
- Anthropic sues the US government
- Leo KoGuan, billionaire Tesla bull, tweets that he purchased another 1 million shares of Nvidia
- Vertiv, Lumentum, Coherent, EchoStar pop on S&P 500 inclusion, as Match Group is removed
- Hims surges after Novo Nordisk reportedly ends feud, agrees to sell its weight-loss drugs on the platform
Deep Dives
- The power play behind Hyperion, Mark Zuckerberg’s colossal data center being built in rural Louisiana
- Clean energy investment hit a new record last quarter, mostly driven by EVs
- The cruise industry is booming thanks to younger consumers looking to “seacation”
- Reading an article online? It’s now a coin flip whether it was authored by a human or AI
Latest Stories
Anthropic sues the US government
In response to the Pentagon’s unprecedented, punitive determination that Anthropic is a national security supply chain risk, the AI startup has sued the US government.
Prediction markets show “One Battle After Another” leads in Oscar race for Best Picture
It’s finally Oscars week — and with voting officially closed, all that’s left to do is count the ballots and wait to see who wins this Sunday night.
This year, the acting categories have been the most interesting to watch, especially the showdown between “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet and “Sinners” actor Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor. While Chalamet was long the favorite, Jordan has caught up and overtaken him after winning the Actor Award.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
But perhaps the most exciting race of all is for Best Picture. Out of the 10 nominees, the two at the top are Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” both of which are studio releases from Warner Bros. Discovery.
Which will win the top prize seems to be split among award pundits and experts. As of Monday afternoon, Gold Derby still has “One Battle After Another” as the front-runner with odds of 76.87%. AwardsWatch, AwardsRadar, and Numlock Awards are also still predicting that “One Battle After Another” will take the statue for Best Picture.
On the other side, reporters from some major trade publications like Variety’s Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg predict that “Sinners” will take the top honor.
Odds in the prediction markets currently show that “One Battle After Another” is still ahead of “Sinners,” with the former priced in at 75% while the latter is priced at 23%.
Oil-sensitive stocks and companies relying on middle-class spending are getting crushed
Sometimes there’s a singular story driving the markets. With US benchmark crude oil prices topping $100 a barrel, Monday is one of those days.
Oil-sensitive stocks are getting clobbered, with airlines foremost among them. JetBlue, United Airlines, and Alaska Air are all tumbling.
But the pain is more widespread than that, with industries where oil prices are a major input, such as chemical manufacturers (Eastman Chemical), industrial machinery makers (Illinois Tool Works), and building products (Owens-Corning), also getting shellacked.
More ominous — economically speaking — is the performance of companies catering to America’s middle class, including Macy’s, Kohl’s, Best Buy, and Texas Roadhouse. The drop suggests that investors and traders expect the rising cost of fuel to eat away at disposable income, potentially setting the stage for an economic slowdown.
Some of the worst off on Monday are companies that are both fuel-sensitive and heavily reliant on middle-class consumers — a double whammy.
Cases in point: Carnival is getting creamed, and Clorox, a company that depends on slightly better-off Americans shelling out for its brand-name products, is also getting pummeled.
But the pain is more widespread than that, with industries where oil prices are a major input, such as chemical manufacturers (Eastman Chemical), industrial machinery makers (Illinois Tool Works), and building products (Owens-Corning), also getting shellacked.
More ominous — economically speaking — is the performance of companies catering to America’s middle class, including Macy’s, Kohl’s, Best Buy, and Texas Roadhouse. The drop suggests that investors and traders expect the rising cost of fuel to eat away at disposable income, potentially setting the stage for an economic slowdown.
Some of the worst off on Monday are companies that are both fuel-sensitive and heavily reliant on middle-class consumers — a double whammy.
Cases in point: Carnival is getting creamed, and Clorox, a company that depends on slightly better-off Americans shelling out for its brand-name products, is also getting pummeled.
Amazon’s autonomous ride-hailing service now testing in 10 markets
Amazon self-driving subsidiary Zoox announced Monday that it’s testing in two additional markets, Phoenix and Dallas, bringing its total to 10 US markets. The company will begin by mapping select neighborhoods using retrofitted Toyota Highlander SUVs with safety drivers behind the wheel, before progressing to autonomous testing and eventually rolling out its steering-wheel-less, purpose-built vehicles for public users.
The service is currently available to the public in Las Vegas and to select users in the Bay Area, where it’s served 300,000 riders.
Zoox is also opening a third “Fusion Center” facility, in Arizona after Las Vegas and the Bay Area, from which it will provide assistance and coordinate operations for its fleet.
Zoox’s expansion comes as Alphabet’s Waymo recently reached its 10th public market and as Tesla’s Robotaxi says it plans to open in six new markets in the first half of the year.
The service is currently available to the public in Las Vegas and to select users in the Bay Area, where it’s served 300,000 riders.
Zoox is also opening a third “Fusion Center” facility, in Arizona after Las Vegas and the Bay Area, from which it will provide assistance and coordinate operations for its fleet.
Zoox’s expansion comes as Alphabet’s Waymo recently reached its 10th public market and as Tesla’s Robotaxi says it plans to open in six new markets in the first half of the year.
Microsoft will use Anthropic’s Claude to power “Copilot Cowork”
Microsoft is partnering with Anthropic to power its new agentic offering, Copilot Cowork. The AI world is abuzz with agents that can do your busywork for you, and Anthropic’s Claude Cowork is one of the most prominent and capable offerings in the field.
The tech giant wrote:
“Working closely with Anthropic, we have integrated the technology behind Claude Cowork into Microsoft 365 Copilot. It is this multi-model advantage that makes Copilot different. Your work is not limited by one brand of models.”
Microsoft listed some examples of how Copilot Cowork could help with common tasks such as rescheduling meetings, sending emails, researching companies, working with spreadsheets, and making presentations.
It’s worth stepping back to note how wild it is that Microsoft, the productivity software behemoth that has absolutely dominated the business world for decades, has had to turn to an AI startup to control those apps.
“Working closely with Anthropic, we have integrated the technology behind Claude Cowork into Microsoft 365 Copilot. It is this multi-model advantage that makes Copilot different. Your work is not limited by one brand of models.”
Microsoft listed some examples of how Copilot Cowork could help with common tasks such as rescheduling meetings, sending emails, researching companies, working with spreadsheets, and making presentations.
It’s worth stepping back to note how wild it is that Microsoft, the productivity software behemoth that has absolutely dominated the business world for decades, has had to turn to an AI startup to control those apps.
China’s smartphone slump could strengthen Apple
China smartphone shipments fell 22% year over year in January, according to a new Bernstein research note. The drop was partly due to the timing of Lunar New Year and tough comparisons with last year, when government subsidies boosted sales, but rising memory costs are also weighing on demand — especially in the lower-end segment dominated by Chinese brands.
Low-tier shipments fell 37%, hitting brands like Honor and Vivo particularly hard, while high-end sales from Apple and Huawei held up better. Overall average selling prices rose 13%.
That could be good news for Apple, which sits at the more price-insulated upper end of the Chinese market and has been making a comeback in the country. Apple’s market share grew to 18% in January — in line with Huawei — from 14% a year earlier, while the rest of the market fell 2 percentage points to 65%.
With its scale and industry-leading margins, the iPhone maker is better positioned to absorb higher memory costs. To wit: it recently unveiled the $599 iPhone 17e, which keeps its entry price steady with its predecessor while doubling storage.
Where in the US have gas prices jumped the most since the US attack on Iran?
Drivers in some states are seeing pump prices rise much faster than others.
Live Nation reportedly reaches settlement with DOJ over Ticketmaster
Live Nation is jumping in premarket trading on Monday after reports that it has reached a settlement with the Department of Justice over an antitrust lawsuit that could have forced the company to sell Ticketmaster.
After Bloomberg reported that the company was close to a settlement, The Wall Street Journal early on Monday reported that a deal had indeed been reached with an agreement that crucially spares the entertainment giant from breaking up with Ticketmaster, in return for making it easier for other promoters to compete in Live Nation venues.
The prompt agreement, with negotiations presumably intensifying since the trial kicked off on March 2, is expected to get relief to consumers faster than Live Nation going through a trial, per a Justice Department official cited by the WSJ.
Separately, Politico reported that the settlement would include $200 million in damages to participating states — a tiny fraction of Live Nation’s more than $36 billion market cap. Politico also expects Live Nation to divest more than 10 amphitheaters and cap Ticketmaster’s service fees at its amphitheaters under the agreement.
The settlement, which still requires approval from a judge, is set to be made public on Monday, and has seen about 10 states agreeing to the new framework, according to people familiar with the matter. Other state attorneys general may continue to separately litigate.
After Bloomberg reported that the company was close to a settlement, The Wall Street Journal early on Monday reported that a deal had indeed been reached with an agreement that crucially spares the entertainment giant from breaking up with Ticketmaster, in return for making it easier for other promoters to compete in Live Nation venues.
The prompt agreement, with negotiations presumably intensifying since the trial kicked off on March 2, is expected to get relief to consumers faster than Live Nation going through a trial, per a Justice Department official cited by the WSJ.
Separately, Politico reported that the settlement would include $200 million in damages to participating states — a tiny fraction of Live Nation’s more than $36 billion market cap. Politico also expects Live Nation to divest more than 10 amphitheaters and cap Ticketmaster’s service fees at its amphitheaters under the agreement.
The settlement, which still requires approval from a judge, is set to be made public on Monday, and has seen about 10 states agreeing to the new framework, according to people familiar with the matter. Other state attorneys general may continue to separately litigate.
Leo KoGuan, billionaire Tesla bull, tweets that he purchased another 1 million shares of Nvidia
Billionaire software entrepreneur, philosopher, and now major Tesla and Nvidia bull Leo KoGuan tweeted that he bought another 1 million shares of the chip designer.
“Hopefully, I can contribute a little to calm the nervous market. Good luck all,” he wrote in his message.
Unless KoGuan can work some magic in global oil markets or conflict resolution in the Middle East, however, “a little” may be all he’s able to contribute in favor of market tranquility.
Stocks, including Nvidia, are modestly positive this morning despite the spike in oil prices weighing on major indexes.
Unless KoGuan can work some magic in global oil markets or conflict resolution in the Middle East, however, “a little” may be all he’s able to contribute in favor of market tranquility.
Stocks, including Nvidia, are modestly positive this morning despite the spike in oil prices weighing on major indexes.
Vertiv, Lumentum, Coherent, EchoStar pop on S&P 500 inclusion, as Match Group is removed
Data center equipment maker Vertiv Holdings, photonic companies Lumentum and Coherent, and telecom company EchoStar rose in premarket trading on Monday after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on Friday that the four companies will join its flagship S&P 500 Index.
The newcomers will replace Match Group, Molina Healthcare, Lamb Weston, and Paycom Software, most of which are trading lower in premarket trading on Monday.
Hims surges after Novo Nordisk reportedly ends feud, agrees to sell its weight-loss drugs on the platform
Hims & Hers is soaring in premarket trading, up around 54% as of 6 a.m. ET, after reports that the telehealth company will announce a new partnership with Novo Nordisk to sell the latter’s weight-loss drugs on its platform again.
The potential deal, which was reported by Bloomberg citing an anonymous source familiar with the matter, would mark yet another turn in the pair’s tumultuous business relationship, after a previous partnership imploded in just under two months last year and Novo Nordisk moved to sue Hims just last month over alleged patent infringements around semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy.
Novo’s weight-loss drugs have lost ground in the ultracompetitive space of late, as combined sales of rival Eli Lilly’s drugs, like Mounjaro and Zepbound, continue to outweigh Novo’s figures for Wegovy and Ozempic, and as copycat offerings from companies like Hims also take market share (at least for now).
A Novo spokesperson said on Friday that the company is “always in conversation with companies that can help improve patient access to FDA-approved medicines,” per Bloomberg, while Michael Cherny, an analyst at Leerink Partners, described the rumored deal as “both a surprise and an unabashed positive for Hims’ stock.”
US gas prices surge, with prediction markets implying more than $4 per gallon by the end of March
Pain at the pump is intensifying as the ongoing war in the Middle East pressures supplies.
US average national gas prices rose to nearly $3.48 per gallon on Monday, according to data from the American Automobile Association, and are up more than 16% since the kinetic conflict started.
“Given Sunday evening’s data and the continued surge in oil prices, I believe there is roughly an 80% chance the national average price of gasoline reaches $4 per gallon within the next month- or sooner,” wrote Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, in a post on Substack on Sunday evening. “In the immediate term, the national average of $3.45 per gallon could climb to roughly $3.75–$3.95 this week alone.”
Prediction markets currently expect prices to end the month around $4.10 to $4.30. On Friday, the prediction market-implied likely range for prices was between $3.60 and $3.70.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
Report: Boeing could unveil 500-jet order from China during Trump’s visit later this month
Shares of Boeing are up nearly 4% on Friday afternoon, following a Bloomberg report that the company could be close to finalizing a deal to sell 500 planes to China.
The deal was first reported in August and would be one of Boeing’s largest ever.
According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.
Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.
According to Bloomberg’s sources, the deal could be officially unveiled when President Trump travels to China at the end of the month. That trip could be delayed given the war in Iran. The deal, sources say, could still fall apart — similar language to when it was first reported on more than six months ago.
Boeing has been on the outside of the Chinese market, in terms of new orders, since 2019 amid escalating US-China trade tensions.