Power producers Talen Energy, Constellation Energy, and NRG jumped Wednesday, benefiting in part from a rosy write-up by analysts at BNP Paribas, who launched coverage of all three at “outperform” and argued that the AI energy trade — a big AI-related winner in recent years that has lagged a bit recently — is due for a second wind.
That view was in a broad note on the independent power producer segment of utilities industry that the analysts published Wednesday, titled “The Golden (AI)ge of IPPs.”
Here’s the gist of it:
US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.
And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.
BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)
US independent power producers (IPPs) have lagged the AI basket for 6+ months, after garnering much attention in 2023-1H25. Investors are caught up in the minutia of perceived headwinds: underwhelming pace of power purchase agreement deals, distributed behind-the-meter solutions stealing the ‘time-to-power’ edge, pressure for data centers to bring generation and not tighten the grid, etc.
And yet, as we demonstrate, despite all this noise, the wave of rising load is at the cusp of an acceleration that will nonetheless overwhelm new supply—well into the 2030s, in our view. Hop on or risk missing the resurgent AI trade this decade.
BNP’s price targets for the stocks — Constellation ($407), NRG ($232) and Talen ($549) — implied gains of 32%, 50%, and 68% respectively. (Though today’s gains would reduce those potential upside targets somewhat for new buyers.)
Here’s another sign Anthropic’s enterprise tools are killing it: The AI firm now captures 73% of all spending among companies buying AI tools for the first time, Axios reports, citing data from Ramp, a fintech company that provides corporate cards and expense management software. That’s up from 50% in January, when it was tied with OpenAI.
As we’ve noted, Big Tech is pivoting from experimentation to revenue — and enterprise is where that shift is playing out.
Microsoft may be about to take its biggest AI partner to court, the Financial Times reports.
Microsoft, a longtime backer of OpenAI, is weighing legal action over the latter’s $50 billion deal with Amazon tied to its new Frontier AI product, arguing it could violate a key clause in their exclusive cloud deal requiring OpenAI’s models to run through Azure. Amazon and OpenAI say they’ve found a workaround. Microsoft executives disagree.
“We know our contract,” a source told the FT. “We will sue them if they breach it. If Amazon and OpenAI want to take a bet on the creativity of their contractual lawyers, I would back us, not them.”
OpenAI, which is eyeing an IPO this year and under pressure to generate more revenue, is trying to loosen Microsoft’s grip as it scales, while Microsoft increasingly sees OpenAI as both a partner and competitor.
“We know our contract,” a source told the FT. “We will sue them if they breach it. If Amazon and OpenAI want to take a bet on the creativity of their contractual lawyers, I would back us, not them.”
OpenAI, which is eyeing an IPO this year and under pressure to generate more revenue, is trying to loosen Microsoft’s grip as it scales, while Microsoft increasingly sees OpenAI as both a partner and competitor.
Payward, crypto exchange Kraken’s parent company, has paused its plans for an initial public offering until market conditions improve, according to a report from CoinDesk that cited two people with knowledge of the matter.
Since the firm announced in November its preparation for an IPO of its common stock, the total market capitalization of the crypto industry has shed around $652.2 billion, from $3.2 trillion to $2.5 trillion as of Wednesday, data from CoinGecko shows.
The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions.
Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.
The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions.
Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.
Morgan Stanley analysts think Tesla’s robotaxi push could boost more than just a new business line — it could help sell more cars and software, too.
After visiting Giga Texas, analysts said they’re more optimistic about Tesla’s progress toward an unsupervised robotaxi rollout, with improvements in tricky pickup and drop-off scenarios where Tesla doesn’t have as much data from consumer usage. For now, the vast majority of its vehicles still have human supervisors in the front seat, but the analysts say the service is helping Tesla.
“Incremental unsupervised robotaxi miles driven improve the underlying autonomy model, which accelerates the path to personal unsupervised FSD [Full Self-Driving]. This, in turn supports higher FSD attach rates, improves auto demand, and cash flow generation.”
In other words, the more robotaxis drive, the better Tesla’s self-driving gets — and that could make its Full Self-Driving software more appealing and its cars easier to sell, in addition to improving its robotaxi service. Note that Tesla’s vehicle deliveries, which accounts for the lion’s share of the company’s revenue, have dropped two years in a row.
Morgan Stanley also sees a cost advantage. It estimates Tesla’s robotaxis could cost about $0.81 per mile to run today — cheaper than traditional ride-hailing and rival autonomous services — with costs falling further as purpose-built vehicles like the Cybercab scale.
Morgan Stanley maintained its equal-weight rating and $415 price target, about 4% above where the stock is currently trading.
On Tuesday, the US Securities and Exchange Commission, together with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, issued an interpretation clarifying how federal securities law applies to crypto assets, a first step toward developing a clearer regulatory framework.
The interpretive guidance introduces a token taxonomy for different types of cryptocurrencies, with SEC Chairman Paul S. Atkins adding that “most crypto assets are not themselves securities.”
Examples of a digital commodity, “a crypto asset that is intrinsically linked to and derives its value from the programmatic operation of a crypto system that is ‘functional,’” include:
Aptos, avalanche, bitcoin, bitcoin cash, cardano, chainlink, dogecoin, ethereum, hedera, litecoin, polkadot, shiba inu, solana, stellar, tezos, and XRP.
The guidance also includes definitions of digital collectibles (such as NFTs), stablecoins, digital tools, and digital securities (such as tokenized real-world assets and stocks).
This is a monumental step in the mainstream adoption of the industry and clears a hurdle in how crypto can operate going forward, according to David Pakman, head of venture investments at CoinFund. “This will allow new token designs with the confidence that their existence does not require registration with the SEC, etc.,” Pakman told Sherwood News.
Despite the clarification efforts from the two organizations, the market capitalization of the crypto industry has dropped about 2% in the last 24 hours as each of the tokens mentioned in the guidance are trading lower in the period, data from CoinGecko shows.
The joint agency action also complements congressional efforts to turn a crypto market structure framework into law. With the goal of providing regulations on the offer and sale of digital commodities, the CLARITY Act passed the House of Representatives last year and is now sitting in the Senate.
ADRs of Alibaba and Baidu are gaining in early trading after the Chinese tech giants announced AI price hikes.
Alibaba said that it’s hiking the price of its AI chips by up to 34% and raising the cost of cloud storage by 30%, with Baidu planning on increasing AI cloud product prices by up to 30%.
Tech companies in China and the US are aiming to show that AI is not just a technological breakthrough but also a core tool for moneymaking. And, well, raising the price of what you sell is one of the most basic ways to make more money!
“Baidu’s decision to raise AI cloud product prices by as much as 30%, according to Bloomberg News, is a positive development that signals a shift toward monetization rather than price competition,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Robert Lea and Jasmine Lyu. “Baidu’s move mirrors similar steps by Tencent, Alibaba, and Zhipu, catalyzed by surging demand for agentic AI following the launch of OpenClaw.”
Incoming CEO Josh D’Amaro is replacing Bob Iger on Wednesday, though Iger will remain a senior adviser through the end of the year.
The average US national gas price jumped a little more than $0.05 to $3.84 on Wednesday, per the American Automobile Association, its highest level since September 2023.
While front-month West Texas Intermediate futures have come off the boil, down roughly 20% from their March 8 peak, front-month gasoline futures are trading about 2% shy of their 2026 peak as of 8:20 a.m. ET.
Prediction markets currently imply that gas prices will end the month near (but below) $4.30 per gallon.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
Prices are up nearly 29% over the past 20 days, per AAA, making this the sharpest such rise in fuel costs in more than two decades.
Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall in the US in late August 2005, was one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters in American history. The damage wreaked havoc on energy infrastructure in the region, prompting gas prices to jump above $3 per gallon by early September from less than $2.30 in early August.
Oklo shares crept up early Wednesday after reporting a wider-than-expected full-year loss Tuesday after the close.
The company isn’t well covered on Wall Street, but a smattering of analysts spotlighted growing capex plans by the company — which not only has no profits, but no revenues — as a potential issue. On the other hand, they gave credit to the nuclear power startup for progress in securing key government permits and approvals.
Barclays (price target of $82, “overweight” rating): “Oklo advanced its momentum with DOE approval of a nuclear safety design agreement for Aurora at INL [Idaho National Laboratory], paving the way for 2028 operations. Management guided higher 2026-27 capex, strengthened fuel supply investments, and enters 2026 with an increase in liquidity.”
Citi (price target $73.50, “neutral/high risk” rating): “Despite strong execution, reaction may skew negative given higher than anticipated 4Q Opex, continued capital raise in Jan, and robust 2026 capex.”
Needham & Co. (price target $73, “buy” rating): “The company did not disclose Aurora unit costs, FY2026 CapEx ($350–450MM) came in above expectations, and [Aurora/Idaho National Laboratory] timing shifted modestly to 2028. We lower our PT to $73 (from $135) on reduced outer-year deployment (~3 GW by 2035) and a lower multiple, but maintain Buy. Execution, cost visibility, and fuel supply remain key gating factors.”
As of December 31, 2025, the company was well capitalized to continue burning cash, reporting cash and marketable securities worth some ~$1.4 billion.
Barclays (price target of $82, “overweight” rating): “Oklo advanced its momentum with DOE approval of a nuclear safety design agreement for Aurora at INL [Idaho National Laboratory], paving the way for 2028 operations. Management guided higher 2026-27 capex, strengthened fuel supply investments, and enters 2026 with an increase in liquidity.”
Citi (price target $73.50, “neutral/high risk” rating): “Despite strong execution, reaction may skew negative given higher than anticipated 4Q Opex, continued capital raise in Jan, and robust 2026 capex.”
Needham & Co. (price target $73, “buy” rating): “The company did not disclose Aurora unit costs, FY2026 CapEx ($350–450MM) came in above expectations, and [Aurora/Idaho National Laboratory] timing shifted modestly to 2028. We lower our PT to $73 (from $135) on reduced outer-year deployment (~3 GW by 2035) and a lower multiple, but maintain Buy. Execution, cost visibility, and fuel supply remain key gating factors.”
As of December 31, 2025, the company was well capitalized to continue burning cash, reporting cash and marketable securities worth some ~$1.4 billion.
What goes up must come down, and that’s exactly what’s happened with Rocket Lab shares over the last day or so.
Following a rally that saw the stock rise more than 10% on Tuesday, Rocket Lab shares came back down to earth in after-hours trading, after the company filed an offering that could see it sell as much as $1 billion in common stock over time. RKLB is down about 3% in premarket trading on Wednesday, as of 6:30 a.m. ET.
In the after-hours filing, the space company wrote that it would use proceeds from the offering to “fund future growth, including potential future acquisitions, and for general corporate and working capital purposes.” Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket, which will be key in any path to profitability that the cash-burning business may forge, was delayed again last month, sending shares down at the time.
RKLB was involved in a wider space, satellite, and drone stock surge yesterday, as investors rallied around the sectors amid the ongoing war in Iran. The FAA had also announced new streamlined launch licensing requirements that will affect companies like Rocket Lab, Firefly Aerospace, and SpaceX. Per the FAA, the new rule, dubbed “Part 450,” will:
“...reduce the number of times an operator needs an FAA license approval and allow one license for a portfolio of operations, different vehicle configurations and mission profiles, and even multiple launch and reentry sites.”
That should cut down on the administrative burden on the industry more broadly.
AI drone software company Swarmer soared 520% on Tuesday, its first day as a public company, and shares continued to climb in premarket trading on Wednesday.
Swarmer sold 3 million shares at $5 each, raising ~$15 million in total and giving it an initial market cap of about $60 million. By the time the closing bell rang on Tuesday, it was worth $382.8 million, according to FactSet.
Swarmer makes AI software that allows operators to coordinate large fleets of unmanned drones. Its technology has been used on the battlefield in Ukraine, and the company’s IPO comes amid the ongoing conflict in Iran.
The company made $310,000 in revenue in 2025, down 6% on the prior year, while its total losses also ballooned from $2.1 million in 2024 to approximately $8.5 million in 2025.
Oklo, the revenue-free nuclear power startup that more than tripled last year and became a favorite of retail traders, reported full-year results after the close of trading Tuesday.
It reported:
A full-year net loss per share of $0.72 vs. the $0.61 loss per share that Wall Street analysts had expected for the year.
R&D expenses of $58.9 million vs. the $46.0 million consensus estimate, according to FactSet.
Earnings have not been a big driver of Oklo shares. After all, analysts don’t expect the company to generate consistent revenues until at least 2028.
(The stock has tended to trade more on the company’s latest announcements about regulatory approvals and incremental steps toward generating revenue, such as those it made this morning.)
This report seems unlikely to turn around the recent performance of the shares, which has been awful. Oklo was down slightly in the after-hours session on Tuesday.
Oklo has dropped roughly 60% from its all-time high, which it hit back in mid-October. That’s also when Goldman Sachs’ themed basket of unprofitable tech stocks — of which Oklo is a member — topped out, suggesting that Oklo’s ills have at least something to do with shifting market sentiment among investors toward long-shot tech bets, in addition to its own performance.