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Luke Kawa

Peloton spikes after Eric Jackson says he’s long the stock at $4

Peloton jumped to session highs to trade up more than 7% after EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson said he was long the fitness company at $4.

Jackson has a big following in the retail community after serving as the architect of the parabolic rally in online real estate company Opendoor Technologies from July through September.

His tweet at 11:56 a.m. ET coincided with a spike in the share price as well as volumes traded (which may well imply that algos are geared to buy any stock he comments favorably on). Shares of other companies he’s announced a bullish view on since the Opendoor episode have also seen a massive announcement effect, including Better Home & Finance in September and Nextdoor in December.

All three of those stocks are currently down 50% or more from their 52-week highs.

In a thread on X, Jackson indicated that Peloton screens as very cheap based on how much free cash flow it generates, and he sees recent insider purchases as an important vote of confidence in the company from its management team. In an updated tweet, he noted that what he previously thought were insider purchases were actually options exercises, but said that this had no impact on his outlook.

Traders are increasingly reaching for index options in an uncertain market

As volatility becomes more event-driven and market leadership more concentrated, traders are increasingly turning to index options as tools for managing exposure and expressing short-term market views.

nasdaq sign on a city street pavement
markets

Sandisk bounces off 50-day moving average amid reprieve for memory stocks

Sandisk shares bounced off their 50-day moving average Friday, ending a multiday bloodbath for the stock that sent it down as much as 15% from where it closed last week.

The worst of the slump came as Google Research disclosed details this week of its TurboQuant AI algorithm, which Google said could allow AI language models to operate more efficiently, cutting demand for memory storage at AI data centers.

Sandisk tumbled in response, along with other AI memory trade stocks such as Micron, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings, which have been some of the market’s top performers this year.

Friday’s reprieve comes as analysts have emphasized the so-called Jevons Paradox implications of the TurboQuant news.

That is, if the Google algorithm lowers the amount of memory required for AI operations, it could make data centers more affordable and cheaper to use, resulting in more investment and thus more sales of memory products over time.

“In this scenario, lower memory requirements could then be offset by higher overall AI adoption and ultimately support inference-led storage demand rather than weaken it,” Citi analysts wrote in a note published Thursday after meeting with Sandisk executives. “This is counter to the initial market reaction, which was instead focused on the short-term view that more efficient AI models would simply reduce memory demand.”

markets

Trump’s Hormuz deadline delay fails to soothe markets amid signs of US and Iranian escalation

There’s little sign of relief in the markets from President Trump’s announcement yesterday of a 10-day delay of the deadline he imposed on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Crude oil prices are climbing and stocks are once again slumping, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Russell 2000 small-cap index all in the red early Friday.

Consumer discretionary stocks sank. Cruise lines Norwegian, Royal Caribbean, and Carnival — which cut its profit outlook on climbing fuel costs as part of earnings Friday — are falling. Other bellwethers of discretionary consumer spending that are less oil-exposed, like Airbnb, DoorDash, and Starbucks, are sinking.

On the other hand, consumer staples stocks — which typically hold up better during tough economic times — rallied.

Soup giant Campbell’s, cigarette seller Altria, ketchup behemoth Kraft Heinz, and spice maker McCormick are climbing.

Energy shares bounced along with rising crude oil prices, with gas driller APA Corporation, oil field services company Halliburton, and integrated giant Exxon gaining.

The energy trade, of course, keyed off the climb in crude oil prices, with benchmark US West Texas Intermediate rising to roughly $98 a barrel, despite Trump’s assurances as part of his deadline delay on Thursday that talks to end the war “are going very well.”

Those comments were largely brushed aside by the markets, a starkly different reaction from the president’s previous delay of the same deadline on Monday. That announcement generated a massive relief rally in crude oil prices and stocks on the hopes that substantive negotiations would begin shortly, or already had.

But Iran’s rejection of an initial US peace plan on Thursday, along with reports that the administration is considering sending another 10,000 US troops to the region and that Chinese ships trying to transit the Hormuz choke point had turned back, seemed to undercut that message.

“Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise to the markets,” market analyst Jim Bianco wrote in a post on LinkedIn on Friday. “Only if the IRANIANS say the talks are going well will it impact markets.”

Consumer discretionary stocks sank. Cruise lines Norwegian, Royal Caribbean, and Carnival — which cut its profit outlook on climbing fuel costs as part of earnings Friday — are falling. Other bellwethers of discretionary consumer spending that are less oil-exposed, like Airbnb, DoorDash, and Starbucks, are sinking.

On the other hand, consumer staples stocks — which typically hold up better during tough economic times — rallied.

Soup giant Campbell’s, cigarette seller Altria, ketchup behemoth Kraft Heinz, and spice maker McCormick are climbing.

Energy shares bounced along with rising crude oil prices, with gas driller APA Corporation, oil field services company Halliburton, and integrated giant Exxon gaining.

The energy trade, of course, keyed off the climb in crude oil prices, with benchmark US West Texas Intermediate rising to roughly $98 a barrel, despite Trump’s assurances as part of his deadline delay on Thursday that talks to end the war “are going very well.”

Those comments were largely brushed aside by the markets, a starkly different reaction from the president’s previous delay of the same deadline on Monday. That announcement generated a massive relief rally in crude oil prices and stocks on the hopes that substantive negotiations would begin shortly, or already had.

But Iran’s rejection of an initial US peace plan on Thursday, along with reports that the administration is considering sending another 10,000 US troops to the region and that Chinese ships trying to transit the Hormuz choke point had turned back, seemed to undercut that message.

“Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise to the markets,” market analyst Jim Bianco wrote in a post on LinkedIn on Friday. “Only if the IRANIANS say the talks are going well will it impact markets.”

crypto

Altcoins have given back the majority of their gains since the Iran war began

While crypto altcoins outperformed for a long stretch after the outbreak of the US war with Iran, the asset class has retraced this past week.

XRP, solana, and ethereum have each dropped more than 6% in the past seven days as the total market capitalization for all of crypto (including bitcoin) has shed roughly $44 billion in the period, per CoinGecko.

Ethereum ETFs have also registered daily consecutive outflows for the past seven days, totaling more than $392.1 million. The last time these investment vehicles had such a streak was in December when ethereum decreased from $3,221 to $2,995, data from SoSoValue shows. 

The Iran war was at first a positioning shock that saw crypto thrive, in part because the asset class was “lightly owned,” according to Fredrick Collins, CEO of crypto analytics platform Velo.xyz

“Now as more concrete and persistent concerns about economic impacts have materialized, it’s not surprising to see crypto struggling as well,” Collins told Sherwood News. “In the face of cyclical (rather than transient) worries for risk assets in general, it’s not realistic to expect crypto to remain unscathed. And so we’ve unfortunately just not seen that initial relative strength in crypto continue to play out.”

Meanwhile, traders are expecting the price of ethereum to decline further this year. Prediction market-implied odds of the cryptocurrency sliding below $1,750 are at 81%, while the probability of the token tumbling under $1,500 stands at 68%, an increase from 52% on Monday. 

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

A drop to $1,457 would liquidate about 162,870 ethereum tokens’ worth of leveraged long positions, worth $323.3 million on Hyperliquid, per CoinGlass.

Slater Santer, a research analyst at trading firm GSR said, "Short term, the market likely remains flow-driven and headline-sensitive. Without a stabilization in ETF flows, a cooling in oil, or a renewed bid in equities, it's hard to argue for a sustained bounce in alts."

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Slater Santer, a research analyst at trading firm GSR said, "Short term, the market likely remains flow-driven and headline-sensitive. Without a stabilization in ETF flows, a cooling in oil, or a renewed bid in equities, it's hard to argue for a sustained bounce in alts."

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markets
Luke Kawa

Meta’s energy deal with Entergy boosts AI-linked utilities stocks

Shares of Entergy are soaring on Friday after Meta agreed to fund the creation of seven natural gas-fired power plants to secure energy for its mammoth Hyperion data center project in Louisiana.

The news is also boosting other AI-linked utilities plays, with Constellation Energy, Vistra, and NRG also trading well to the upside on Friday.

In a press release, Entergy said the deal was “structured to ensure Meta pays its full cost of service.” Electricity prices have become a hot-button political issue, with President Trump pushing tech giants to pay their own way” on the costs associated with fueling data centers in a bid to avoid having households shoulder any of this burden.

markets

Fundrise’s venture fund falls amid concerns about valuation gap

Fundrise Innovation Fund, a publicly traded venture capital fund with stakes in private companies like Anthropic and SpaceX, is coming back down to earth after swelling to more than 25x the value of its assets early this week.

Shares of the fund, which went public on March 19 and uses the ticker VCX, closed at $262 on Thursday and had sunk to $189.26 shortly after market open on Friday. The stock closed at $533 on Wednesday.

The fund is still trading well above its net asset value (NAV), which was $18.26 per share as of March 2, 2026, according to its IPO documents. That means retail investors, desperate for exposure to high-flying private companies but left with no other ways in, are paying a hefty premium.

The gap between its NAV and the stock price led Citron Research to go short on the stock, the firm revealed Thursday.

Ben Miller, Fundrise cofounder and CEO, pushed back on the short report in an interview on CNBC Friday morning, saying his firm can’t control the stock price and noting that pre-IPO investors were actually worried the fund would end up trading at a discount, not a premium.

markets
Luke Kawa

Cyber stocks plunge after reportedly leaked document shows Anthropic is worried its new model will enable indefensible online attacks

Cybersecurity stocks are suffering from another case of Claude-struption:

Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike, Cloudflare, Fortinet, Zscaler, and Okta are all slumping in premarket trading after Fortune reported that a data leak from Anthropic revealed an updated AI model the company fears is so powerful that malicious actors could launch cyberattacks that these companies wouldn’t be able to defend against.

Per the leaked document reviewed by Fortune, the new model “presages an upcoming wave of models that can exploit vulnerabilities in ways that far outpace the efforts of defenders,” and Anthropic plans to release it early to cybersecurity companies in order to help improve their ability to withstand attacks.

According to experts cited by Fortune, this leak was able to be discovered because digital assets created in Anthropic’s content management system “are set to public by default” unless a user shifts them to be kept private. Anthropic refers to this as “human error.”

But given how Claude Cowork was created by Claude Code, one presumes that Anthropic makes extensive use of its AI tools for code and products deployed both internally and externally.

This leaves us with a bit of a conundrum. Anthropic is simultaneously able to:

  • Develop an AI model so powerful that traditional cyber defenders might be bringing a paper shield to a gun fight; and

  • Not utilize anything resembling appropriate safeguards for protecting its own information and products using those same powerful AI tools it has developed.

When “hey, maybe make sure we don’t default to publishing information publicly!” can be considered an improvement on one’s own cybersecurity standards, it’s a little difficult to trust one’s assessment of future threats.

These cyber stocks had previously slumped in late February after Anthropic launched a new security feature for its AI model.

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markets
Luke Kawa

Argan spikes on massive Q4 sales beat as power plant supplying PJM region completed ahead of schedule

The ability to add supply ahead of schedule to an energy-hungry AI boom drove a massive earnings beat for power plant builder Argan in Q4.

In the three months ended January, Argan’s adjusted earnings per share of $3.47 crushed the consensus estimate for $1.98, while revenues of $262 million modestly exceeded the consensus call for $255 million.

Following this release, JPMorgan analyst Michael Fairbanks hiked his price target to a Wall Street high of $550 (from $370) and upgraded the stock to “overweight” from “neutral.”

Goldman Sachs also hiked its price target to $518 from $399 in the wake of these results, maintaining a “buy rating on the shares.

Management attributed the strong profitability to its project mix and execution, including reaching “substantial completion” on its Trumbull Energy Center project early. This natural gas plant supplies energy to the PJM region, the largest US grid operator, at a time when the nation’s spending on data centers has recently overtaken office expenditures.

“Our power grid is under increasing strain, rapid growth in AI and data centers, electrification of everything, the need to replace aging power facilities and years of underinvestment in power infrastructure are driving urgent demand for new reliable power generation capacity,” CEO David Watson said on the conference call.

personal-finance

Wall Street bonuses hit a new record last year, edging toward $250,000 average

2025 was a pretty good year for US stocks... and new data suggests it was an even better one for workers on Wall Street itself.

In a year that saw pretax profits on the Street rise more than 30% to a record $65 billion, dealmakers, traders, and wealth managers raked in ~$246,900 in bonuses on average — an all-time high — per a new report from New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli published on Thursday.

Wall street bonuses chart
Sherwood News

According to DiNapoli, last year’s record $49.2 billion bonus pool (estimated using income tax data without including stock options or other deferred compensation) reflects Wall Street’s “strong performance for much of last year, despite all of the ongoing domestic and international upheavals.”

tech
Jon Keegan

Judge blocks Pentagon’s move to blacklist Anthropic

A federal judge in Northern California has granted a preliminary injunction blocking the Pentagon from labeling Anthropic as a national security supply chain risk.

The ruling temporarily prevents the Defense Department from restricting the AI company’s access to federal contracts amid a dispute over its refusal to allow certain military and surveillance uses of its technology. The designation could also have shifted lucrative government work toward competitors, including OpenAI.

Earlier this month, Anthropic, the company behind Claude, sued 17 federal agencies and their heads, alleging the government exceeded its statutory authority.

markets

President Trump extends Strait of Hormuz opening deadline to April 6

President Trump said that he will give Iran another 10 days to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, postponing the strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure that he had threatened last weekend. Markets have been broadly muted on the deadline delay, however, with oil up moderately and stocks slightly in the red in early trading Friday.

Not long after markets closed Thursday, the president posted on Truth Social that he will pause “Energy Plant destruction” for 10 days until Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET, at the request of the Iranian government, adding that talks are “going very well.” Iranian mediators told The Wall Street Journal that they hadn’t requested the delay. Oil prices fell briefly on the news but snapped back within minutes, with Brent crude futures now up 2% to $110 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude also up 2% to around $96 a barrel.

Global stock markets are mixed with uncertainty around any actual ceasefire prospects: Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI both closed around 0.4% lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.4% on Friday. Meanwhile, Europe’s STOXX 600 is down 0.9% this morning, with other major indexes across the region also lower. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures are down 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively, at 7 a.m. ET.

tech
Rani Molla

Report: SpaceX’s record IPO may grant preferential access to retail investors and Tesla shareholders

SpaceX’s impending IPO could raise $40 billion to $80 billion and rank as the largest ever — as well as one of the most unconventional.

The Wall Street Journal reports several ways CEO Elon Musk is considering breaking with IPO norms:

  • Investors in his other companies, including Tesla, could receive preferential access to shares.

  • Individual investors may get a third or more of the allocation, far above the typical ~10% mark.

  • Instead of a traditional road show, Musk wants investors to visit SpaceX facilities in person.

  • Investors in his other companies, including Tesla, could receive preferential access to shares.

  • Individual investors may get a third or more of the allocation, far above the typical ~10% mark.

  • Instead of a traditional road show, Musk wants investors to visit SpaceX facilities in person.

markets

Unity soars on strong Q1 preliminary results and news it will exit nonstrategic ad business

Unity Software is up around 15% in premarket trading on Friday after the gaming software company announced preliminary results for Q1 2026 that were above analyst guidance, largely driven by its Vector AI ad engine.

Per Unity’s statement released after the bell on Thursday, the company now expects Q1 sales to fall between $505 million and $508 million, above its guidance of $480 million to $490 million and ahead of analyst expectations of $494 million (compiled by FactSet). The company also now forecasts adjusted EBITDA to land between $130 million and $135 million, topping its guidance for $105 million to $110 million and representing a 58% rise from last year.

In the preliminary report, Unity President and CEO Matt Bromberg highlighted Vector, its AI ad tool that matches players with games, delivering “better long term results” for its advertisers as a key driver. The company expects ~$352 million from its Grow segment, which includes Vector.

Unity also announced that it will be exiting its ironSource Ads Network starting April 30, which has waned of late to represent only 11% of total revenue growth in the previous quarter. In addition, Unity has engaged a financial adviser to divest its Supersonic game publishing business, noting that these changes will drive “faster revenue growth, increased Adjusted EBITDA, and higher Adjusted EBITDA margins.”

tech
Rani Molla

Tesla released estimates for Q1 deliveries and they’re lower than analysts expected

Ahead of first-quarter earnings next month, Tesla released its own company-compiled Wall Street consensus estimate for deliveries: 365,645 vehicles. While that’s lower than the 382,000 FactSet consensus estimate, it represents a nearly 9% jump from Q1 2025, when Tesla sold 336,681 vehicles.

Tesla started releasing its own consensus estimates to the public — not just institutional investors — for the first time in Q4 2025. The move was seen as a way to temper investor expectations, as other estimates were too high. Last quarter, Tesla’s compilation was closer to actual numbers, which fell 16% year over year.

The market-implied odds from event contracts suggest 64% of traders think Tesla’s Q1 deliveries will be more than 350,000, 44% think it will be higher than 360,000, and just 21% have it at higher than 370,000.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

markets

Nasdaq Composite enters correction territory, joining small-cap Russell 2000

The Nasdaq Composite closed down 10.9% from its high of 24,019.99 — reached during intraday trading on October 29 — putting the tech-heavy benchmark conclusively into a “correction.”

A correction is Wall Street’s term of art for a sell-off that’s graver than a garden-variety slump, but not quite as dire as a bear market. (A bear market commences when prices are down 20% from a peak.)

While the proximate cause in the Nasdaq turndown seems to be the war — the Composite is down more than 5% since the start of the conflict on February 28 — it’s worth noting that the index had been stalled out for three months prior to that.

At least Nasdaq investors aren’t alone: the small-cap Russell 2000 slipped into a correction last Friday. The S&P 500 has held up better, relatively speaking, though it, too, is down more than 7% from its intraday high of 7,002.28, which it touched on January 28.

Bear on Back Feet

Markets sell off as Mideast conflict shows no sign of ending

The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 all fell while oil rose.

business

Netflix is hiking its prices again

Netflix is raising its subscription prices for the fourth time in four years, a move first spotted by Android Authority.

Per Netflix’s US pricing page, the cost of an ad-supported plan is climbing $1 to $8.99 per month, while the cost of a standard ad-free plan is going up $2 to $19.99 per month. The premium tier has also risen $2 to $26.99 per month.

The streamer last raised its subscription costs more than a year ago in January 2025. It also hiked prices in 2023, 2022, 2020, and 2019. Netflix shares climbed about 2% on the news.

“Our approach remains the same: we continue offering a range of prices and plans to meet a variety of needs, and as we deliver more value to our members we are updating our prices to enable us to reinvest in quality entertainment and improve their experience by updating our prices,” said a Netflix spokesperson, in a statement to Sherwood News.

The streamer last raised its subscription costs more than a year ago in January 2025. It also hiked prices in 2023, 2022, 2020, and 2019. Netflix shares climbed about 2% on the news.

“Our approach remains the same: we continue offering a range of prices and plans to meet a variety of needs, and as we deliver more value to our members we are updating our prices to enable us to reinvest in quality entertainment and improve their experience by updating our prices,” said a Netflix spokesperson, in a statement to Sherwood News.