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Rubles: Checking in on Russia's economy

Rubles: Checking in on Russia's economy

3/17/24 7:00PM

Landslide

Vladimir Putin has — somewhat inevitably — secured another 6 years as president of Russia after apparently taking 87% of the vote, according to exit polls from the weekend’s "sham" election. Candidates were reportedly vetted by the Kremlin, campaign financing and fundraising was limited by the state, and voting was enforced by gunpoint in some parts of occupied Ukraine, leading to protests breaking out within Russia and around the world.

Russia’s ruble

Putin’s rule in one form or another has been steady for 25 years now, having served as president or prime minister ever since 1999 — making him the longest-serving leader since Joseph Stalin. But, with Russia increasingly sealed off from the rest of the world, how is the country’s economy faring?

The ruble, Russia's national currency, has seen some extreme fluctuations for an economy of its size since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. From 2020-2021, 100 rubles would typically buy somewhere between $1.25 and $1.60 — an exchange rate that, in the wake of the invasion, reached as low ~$0.72. Since then, the Kremlin has made concerted efforts to prop up its currency, implementing extended capital controls, ordering Russian companies to sell off other countries’ cash, and decreeing that “unfriendly” foreign entities must pay for gas in rubles.

Other measures of Russia’s economic wellbeing are equally distorted, with GDP seemingly holding up well... in part because it measures every new tank, bomb, and weapon produced by the country.

Like so many other questions surrounding modern Russia, the answer to “how is the country’s economy doing” is shrouded in some deliberate, and some unintended, obfuscation.

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Paramount Skydance reportedly preparing an Ellison-backed Warner Bros. Discovery takeover bid, sending shares soaring

Paramount Skydance is preparing a majority cash bid for Warner Bros. Discovery, The Wall Street Journal reported, sending shares of both companies surging. The Journal’s sources say the deal is backed by the Ellison family, led by David Ellison.

WBD shares were up 30% on the report, while Paramount Skydance jumped 8%.

The offer would cover WBD’s entire business — cable networks, movie studios, the whole enchilada. That comes after WBD announced plans last year to split into two divisions: one for streaming and studios, the other for its traditional cable and TV assets. A recent Wells Fargo note gave WBD a price target hike, primarily because the analysts viewed it as a prime takeover candidate.

If the deal goes through, it would bring together HBO, CNN, DC Studios, and Warner Bros.’ film library with Paramount+, Nickelodeon, and MTV, all under one umbrella.

The offer would cover WBD’s entire business — cable networks, movie studios, the whole enchilada. That comes after WBD announced plans last year to split into two divisions: one for streaming and studios, the other for its traditional cable and TV assets. A recent Wells Fargo note gave WBD a price target hike, primarily because the analysts viewed it as a prime takeover candidate.

If the deal goes through, it would bring together HBO, CNN, DC Studios, and Warner Bros.’ film library with Paramount+, Nickelodeon, and MTV, all under one umbrella.

business

Fox and News Corp slide as investors digest $3.3 billion Murdoch succession settlement

Fox and News Corp shares dropped on Tuesday after Rupert Murdoch’s heirs agreed to a $3.3 billion settlement to resolve a long-running succession drama.

Under the deal, Prudence, Elisabeth, and James Murdoch will each receive about $1.1 billion, paid for in part by Fox selling 16.9 million Class B voting shares and News Corp selling 14.2 million shares. The stock sales will raise roughly $1.37 billion on behalf of the three heirs.

The new trust for Lachlan Murdoch will now control about 36.2% of Fox’s Class B shares and roughly 33.1% of News Corp’s stock, granting him uncontested voting authority over both companies for the next 25 years. Originally, the Murdoch trust was designed to hand over voting control of Fox and News Corp to Prudence, Elisabeth, Lachlan, and James after his death.

Investors are weighing the trade-off. Clear leadership under Lachlan may resolve conflict internally, but the share dilution, executed at a roughly 4.5% discount, means long-term investors now hold slightly less clout than before.

Both companies’ stocks were trading close to all-time highs prior to the announcement.

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