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Rubles: Checking in on Russia's economy

Rubles: Checking in on Russia's economy

Landslide

Vladimir Putin has — somewhat inevitably — secured another 6 years as president of Russia after apparently taking 87% of the vote, according to exit polls from the weekend’s "sham" election. Candidates were reportedly vetted by the Kremlin, campaign financing and fundraising was limited by the state, and voting was enforced by gunpoint in some parts of occupied Ukraine, leading to protests breaking out within Russia and around the world.

Russia’s ruble

Putin’s rule in one form or another has been steady for 25 years now, having served as president or prime minister ever since 1999 — making him the longest-serving leader since Joseph Stalin. But, with Russia increasingly sealed off from the rest of the world, how is the country’s economy faring?

The ruble, Russia's national currency, has seen some extreme fluctuations for an economy of its size since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. From 2020-2021, 100 rubles would typically buy somewhere between $1.25 and $1.60 — an exchange rate that, in the wake of the invasion, reached as low ~$0.72. Since then, the Kremlin has made concerted efforts to prop up its currency, implementing extended capital controls, ordering Russian companies to sell off other countries’ cash, and decreeing that “unfriendly” foreign entities must pay for gas in rubles.

Other measures of Russia’s economic wellbeing are equally distorted, with GDP seemingly holding up well... in part because it measures every new tank, bomb, and weapon produced by the country.

Like so many other questions surrounding modern Russia, the answer to “how is the country’s economy doing” is shrouded in some deliberate, and some unintended, obfuscation.

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eBay stock slumps on gloomy Q4 outlook despite solid Q3 earnings

Shares of eBay fell as much as 10.5% in premarket trading on Thursday morning after the company gave a lower-than-expected profit forecast for the important holiday shopping season.

The e-commerce giant reported solid numbers for the third quarter on Wednesday, with revenue up 9% as reported to $2.8 billion and gross merchandise volume rising 10% to $20.1 billion, topping the average analyst forecast of $19.4 billion, per Bloomberg.

However, concerns about the future somewhat overshadowed these results.

eBay outlined its profit outlook for the period ending in December to $1.31 to $1.36 a share, with revenue at $2.83 billion to $2.89 billion. According to Bloomberg-compiled data, this broadly matches Wall Street’s estimates for the top line, but misses on the bottom line, with analysts forecasting EPS to come in at $1.39 — suggesting the company expects some further margin pressure.

The company has been facing macroeconomic challenges since the US ended the de minimis tariff exemption in late August, with the online marketplace reliant on shipments. One small silver lining? CFO Peggy Alford highlighted a “less durable trend” on a post-earnings call: that as commodity prices for precious metals boomed, demand for bullion and collectible coins on eBay spiked.

However, concerns about the future somewhat overshadowed these results.

eBay outlined its profit outlook for the period ending in December to $1.31 to $1.36 a share, with revenue at $2.83 billion to $2.89 billion. According to Bloomberg-compiled data, this broadly matches Wall Street’s estimates for the top line, but misses on the bottom line, with analysts forecasting EPS to come in at $1.39 — suggesting the company expects some further margin pressure.

The company has been facing macroeconomic challenges since the US ended the de minimis tariff exemption in late August, with the online marketplace reliant on shipments. One small silver lining? CFO Peggy Alford highlighted a “less durable trend” on a post-earnings call: that as commodity prices for precious metals boomed, demand for bullion and collectible coins on eBay spiked.

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