State of the (economic) union
President Biden delivered a surprisingly fiery State of the Union address yesterday, as he ramps up efforts to secure a second term in office. But, politics aside, what is the current state of the economic union? Here are 4 datasets we’re watching:
Inflation. The Big I — the economic elephant in every room for the last 3 years is finally shrinking, with the latest BLS data showing that prices were up 3.1% in January, down substantially from the ~9% annual increases seen in mid-2022.
Housing affordability. As interest rates rose, so did mortgage rates. However, house prices in most towns and cities have continued to soar, leaving first-time buyers facing high borrowing costs and steep prices — combining for one of the least affordable housing markets in modern history.
Stocks. Repeat after me: stock markets are not the economy... but that doesn’t mean they aren’t important. With the S&P 500 Index already climbing ~9% this year, millions of Americans might be feeling a little more secure in their savings or retirement plans (particularly if they own Nvidia stock).
Wages. Getting a 5% raise when inflation is hitting nearly double that figure left many of us still finding our larger paychecks don't stretch as far as they once did. This was the case in 2021 and 2022 when wages struggled to keep up with inflation; however, as the rate of price increases began to slow last year, real hourly compensation finally turned positive.
With every passing month, the US economy appears to have increasingly pulled off the “soft-landing” that economists so desired when the Federal Reserve began its battle against inflation back in March 2022. Interestingly, the economy is no longer seen as the most important issue facing Americans, having been overtaken by immigration in the latest Gallup survey.
