Why Moderna and Pfizer have erased their pandemic gains

Vaccine stocks were a classic pandemic trade as investors banked on the wave of government money spent on a product the whole world desperately needed. Now, nearly five years later — has revenue related to COVID-19 officially dried up?

Moderna ended Monday at about $35 a share after it reported a grim outlook for 2025. The last time it traded under $35 was April 3, 2020. By that point, the stock was already up more than 60% year to date amid hopes that it would develop a vaccine that could end the national emergency, which was declared on March 13.

Moderna’s stock price peaked at $449 in September 2021 as the revenue from COVID-19 vaccines started pouring in. But unlike other pharmaceutical companies, Moderna predominantly sells vaccines. Once everyone who wanted a jab got their two doses, it was hard to keep up the momentum.

Pfizer, on the other hand, has a large portfolio of prescription drugs. Its financials are less tied to vaccines, and shares fell below their pre-Covid stock price of about $30 in 2023.

That could also be why Moderna’s stock price has tanked a lot more in recent years now that demand for its vaccines has fallen and vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was nominated by President-elect Donald Trump to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.

Vaccine bulls often point to the fact that they are one outbreak — or medical breakthrough — away from another big revenue boost. Moderna, for one, is at the forefront of some cutting-edge products, like a vaccine that potentially prevents certain types of cancers.