As bitcoin flirts with $83,000, Saylor says Strategy will “probably sell some bitcoin”
For investors, three key factors require further monitoring for the “sustainability of price levels above $80,000.”
Bitcoin continues to rally, reaching $82,700 early Wednesday morning, driven by progress on a deal between the US and Iran.
Tim Sun, a senior researcher at Hashkey, told Sherwood News that in addition to further easing in the Iran conflict, this round of growth for bitcoin primarily benefited from improved liquidity at the macro level.
“Additionally, capital expenditures from US AI cloud providers continue to rise, coupled with strong earnings from several tech companies, supporting an overall increase in market risk appetite,” Sun said.
That said, Sun noted that signals from the derivatives market have not provided the same level of confirmation.
Sun said that institutions have not shown a strong desire to “chase the long” on the futures side, and demand for downside protection remains robust. In the options market, Sun said the “Max Pain” point is identified at $84,000, while a significant cluster of long orders is around the $78,000 to $79,000 range.
“While capital is holding bitcoin at the $81,000 level, it is doing so at a certain hedging cost, indicating a degree of concern regarding further upward price movement,” he said, adding that for the next phase, the probability of volatile, wide-range fluctuations between $78,000 and $84,000 is higher than a smooth upward breakout.
For investors, three key factors require further monitoring, he said, including whether ETFs can maintain strong net inflows; whether CME futures positions show a steady increase; and whether the US Dollar Index remains weak.
“These factors will dictate the sustainability of price levels above $80,000,” Sun said.
Bitcoin ETFs, meanwhile, continue to be on a roll, with four consecutive days of inflows. In the first two days of this week, they registered just under $1 billion in inflows, according to SoSoValue.
Looking ahead, Bitfinex analysts said that they’re watching a daily close above $84,766, the next technical reference and upper edge of the prior consolidation zone, while on the downside, they’re looking at a retest printing below $78,000 on spot-led Cumulative Volume Delta.
They said that this move is being driven by aggressive institutional buying rather than passive flows, with demand running almost 3x to 6x higher than new supply, a shift that suggests bitcoin isn’t just rallying, “but squeezing the bear thesis out of the market.”
“ETF inflows have quietly rebuilt the floor under the market, while institutional flows tied to yield-bearing products such as Strategy’s STRC are adding a new source of demand into the current rally,” they said.
Speaking of Strategy, perma-bull and “never sell your bitcoin” Michael Saylor, in a stunning reversal, said on a Tuesday earnings call that his company may sell bitcoin for the first time ever.
“We’ll probably sell some bitcoin to fund a dividend just to inoculate the market, just to send the message that we did it. Look, the company’s fine. The bitcoin’s fine. The industry’s fine. The world didn’t come to an end. If you’re a short seller and your thesis is the company’s got to sell equity in order to fund the dividends, I would like nothing better than to, you know, rip your wings off,” Saylor said on the earnings call.
Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, with 818,334 bitcoin, reported its first-quarter earnings on Tuesday.
