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Bitcoin gets a positive bounce following State of the Union

“This has been a silver lining, given the tumultuous time crypto markets have had over the past months and weeks, but it does not call for celebration just yet,” one expert warned.

Bitcoin bounced back following President Trump’s State of the Union speech Tuesday evening and is up 5.7% in the last 24 hours. The asset reached $66,900 Wednesday morning, a welcome reprieve after dropping to the $62,000 level a couple of days ago. The asset is still down 16.9% so far this month, CoinGlass data shows.

Bitcoin ETFs also returned to seeing inflows on Monday, registering $257.7 million, the most since February 6, according to SoSoValue.

Stan Low, a researcher at Grvt, told Sherwood News that bitcoin is “finally fighting back” and “demonstrating signs of recovery.”

“This has been a silver lining, given the tumultuous time crypto markets have had over the past months and weeks, but it does not call for celebration just yet,” he added.

Low said this isn’t quite yet a sign of a structural market shift, as “we are not in the clear,” given the same macro factors that have shaken the markets these past few months remain and still “plague risk markets.”

Tariff tensions, geopolitical flare-ups, and fears around digital asset treasuries selling their tokens continue to weigh on bitcoin, he said.  

Levels Low is watching for potential long squeezes resulting in downward price action around mid-$64,000, while levels to watch for upside potential via short squeezes are mid-$66,000.

Pratik Kala, head of research at Apollo Crypto, told Sherwood that bitcoin is below its point of control, as well as below its 200-week exponential moving average, which “doesn’t paint a good picture for bulls in the short term.”

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Crypto industry sees relief bounce in midst of winter

Crypto assets and crypto-adjacent companies are catching a bid and rebounding off recent lows, with stablecoin issuer Circle soaring after reporting strong earnings before the bell. The company beat on revenue and reported that USDC in circulation has grown to $75.3 billion, up 72% year over year.

The total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies has increased 4.5% in the last 24 hours, and both tokens and companies close to crypto are enjoying a boost:

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Despite the relief bounce, some are still uneasy. “The whole market still seems very heavy to me,” Glenn Rosenberg, managing partner at Persistent Trading, told Sherwood News. “Jokingly, BTC feels like it’s now 100% correlated to any asset or news that’s negative! I think we test 60,000 — that’s a big long-term channel and could push lower from there,” he said. “The whole [space] looks risky right now.”

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Buterin’s sales, ETF outflow streak weigh on ethereum

The price of ethereum remains under pressure as ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin selling a tranche of his holdings and sustained spot ETF outflows act as headwinds for the second-largest cryptocurrency. 

Buterin sold $5.9 million worth of ethereum over the past several days after withdrawing 3,500 tokens from lending protocol Aave, on-chain data from blockchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence shows. Since the beginning of the month, Buterin has reportedly sold 8,000 tokens.

Vitalik Buterin sells ethereum

“Historically, his sales have funded ecosystem development or philanthropy rather than signaling reduced conviction,” per Kelly Ye, deputy chief investment officer of Avenir Group. “It may create short-term sentiment pressure, but it’s not necessarily a structural negative — especially given his continued active role in building ethereum,” Ye told Sherwood News.

Meanwhile, spot ethereum ETFs recorded $123.4 million in outflows last week, marking the fifth consecutive week of outflows. In total, nearly $1.4 billion has exited from the funds during the stretch, data from SoSoValue shows. “ETF outflows reflect positioning and liquidity conditions more than protocol fundamentals. ETH is still being treated tactically by many allocators rather than as a core allocation,” Ye added.

The longest outflow streak for the investment vehicles is eight weeks, occurring between February and April 2025, when the cryptocurrency dropped from $2,200 to under $1,600. 

Still, pockets of demand persist. BitMine Immersion Technologies, the leading ethereum treasury firm, acquired roughly $100 million worth of tokens last week, according to a press release

“In the midst of this ‘mini crypto winter,’ our focus continues to be on methodically executing our treasury strategy and steadily acquiring ETH and in turn, optimizing the yield on our ETH holdings,” BitMine Chairman Tom Lee said in a statement.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.