Bitcoin nears key level that capped previous January rally

Bitcoin is mostly holding steady in the $74,000 to $75,000 range and is up 9% in April, following a meager 1.8% return in March, which at least broke a bad streak of five consecutive months in the red.

Vytautas Mackonis, ALCUM COO, told Sherwood News that bitcoin’s April return so far indicates a broader alignment with cyclical assets rather than defensive ones.

“This relative performance suggests improving risk sentiment, supported in part by ongoing US-Iran ceasefire diplomacy, as well as signs of stabilization in global growth expectations,” Mackonis said.

Now, however, bitcoin’s price could face another headwind, as it is approaching traders’ on-chain realized price of $76,800, “which has historically acted as a powerful bear market resistance level, capping previous relief rallies including the January 2026 bounce,” Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, said in a report.  

Moreno said that in bear markets, this level acts as a ceiling for relief rallies, as holders near breakeven are incentivized to sell, capping further upside.

“This band capped the January 2026 bear market rally precisely at this level before prices reversed lower, and the same dynamic may repeat if selling pressure builds from current levels. The Lower Band at ~$67.6K now serves as the primary near-term support if the resistance holds,” Moreno said.

Bitcoin ETFs, which have also helped support the asset’s price, have registered $928 million in inflows so far in April, putting them on track to surpass March’s $1.32 billion total.

Glassnode analysts said that despite the reversal, “the recovery remains measured rather than aggressive.”

“CME open interest is still well below prior highs, and ETF inflows lack the sustained momentum seen during earlier phases of the cycle. This points to a more cautious re-engagement, rather than a full risk-on shift,” the analysts said in a report. Regarding market structure, the analysts said dealer positioning is playing a central role in near-term price action.

“A significant concentration of negative gamma sits between the $74K and $76K range, with roughly $3 billion of exposure positioned above spot, creating a zone where hedging flows can influence direction,” they said, adding that as spot trading approaches this area, dealers are required to buy into strength to manage their exposure, reinforcing upward momentum.

“This dynamic shifts the interpretation of resistance, as levels with high negative gamma can act as accelerants rather than barriers. The current setup reflects a market where mechanical hedging activity can amplify price action, particularly in an environment where liquidity and positioning remain relatively light,” they said.

Meanwhile, some analysts say that bitcoin’s relative resilience since the start of the Middle East conflict could push the price much higher by the end of the month. 

Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research, told Sherwood that a complication in the negotiation process may derail the accrued gains of the past four days; however, if nothing disruptive occurs in the market, bitcoin could “easily” reclaim its $85,000 mark by the end of April.

“This month is historically positive for bitcoin with an average growth of 31%. If history repeats itself, a new support may be formed at $85,000,” Young said.