(Artur Widak/Getty Images)

Bitcoin rebounds but FOMC will set tone for Santa rally

12/10/25 8:53AM

Bitcoin has rebounded to its highest price since mid-November, crossing $94,000 ahead of the Fed’s expected rate cut today. The asset is increasingly trading within a macropolitical supercycle in which liquidity conditions, regulatory decisions, and the portfolio strategies of major institutional holders outweigh miner-driven supply mechanics, according to Farzam Ehsani, CEO of VALR.

While the upside move “rekindled risk appetite,” a sustainable recovery now hinges on the Fed’s policy language, Timothy Misir, head of research at Blockhead Research Network, said.

Bitcoin is down 5.9% on the year and 27% from its October 6 all-time high.

“If the Fed cements a dovish path with ongoing liquidity support, the path back to the $96k–$106k bands becomes plausible. If not, expect rapid retest of the mid-$80k area,” Misir said.

Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs saw $151.74 million in inflows on Monday, the largest inflows since November 21, SoSoValue data shows.

Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, echoes the sentiment, saying that bitcoin’s consolidation in a broad $86,000 to $94,000 range shows a market that doesn’t have enough anchors to make a decisive move.

“A rate cut could make BTC rise back toward $94,000–$96,000. By contrast, a cautious move [by the Fed] could send it into the $80K range again,” she said.

Looking ahead, Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, said that despite yesterday’s rally, bitcoin was rejected from the critical resistance level of $94,000, reflecting prevailing fears that the FOMC will announce a hawkish cut today.

Puckrin said that could reduce the likelihood of a Santa rally for bitcoin and that it may well finish 2025 under $100,000.

“Momentum hasn’t been on bitcoin’s side lately,” he said.

However, he said the markets could “very quickly switch from depression to euphoria in 2026,” particularly if ultra-dovish Kevin Hassett replaces Powell.

“So bitcoin’s new all-time high likely hasn’t been canceled — just postponed,” he said.

Finally, Standard Chartered analysts lowered their bitcoin price expectations, deeming the moment “not a crypto winter, just a cold breeze.”

Going forward, the analysts expect ETFs to be the key drivers of bitcoin price, as “bitcoin buying by DATs has run its course.”

They halved their previous 2025 and 2026 forecasts to $100,000 and $150,000, respectively.

They also “expect bitcoin to reach our long-term price forecast of USD 500,000 only in 2030 (versus 2028 previously).”

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy10h

Bitcoin drops to lowest level since day after Trump’s election win

Bitcoin dropped to its lowest level since November 6, 2024, the day after the US presidential election, when it had been in ascendance amid unbridled enthusiasm about the incoming “crypto president.”

While the asset had a quick rebound from the weekend bloodbath, it is now down 2.2% in the past hour, which has brought the price below its lows seen in the sessions following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on “Liberation Day” in April 2025.

It briefly broke below $74,000 and, according to Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, could still “bottom out” in the $60,000 levels.

Several experts said bitcoin was in the throes of a bear market, including Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who nevertheless said it was “close to an end.”

Bitfinex analysts said that the broader flow picture suggests a clear risk-off rotation, with investors reallocating toward cash and gold amid rising macroeconomic and political uncertainty.

“In this environment, the lack of ETF absorption has amplified downside volatility, reinforcing the importance of institutional spot demand as a stabilizing force during periods of market stress,” they said.

Sage D. Young11h

Standard Chartered predicts solana will more than double in price by end of year

The price of solana is trading at $100, a nearly two-year low, but Standard Chartered forecasts that the token will climb to $250 by the end of 2026.

Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s global head of digital asset research, pointed to flows on decentralized exchanges on solana beginning to shift from meme coins to solana-stablecoin pairs, aided by AI-driven micropayments.

“AI-driven micropayments using stablecoins are starting to demonstrate that the ‘order of magnitude’ cost reduction on solana can enable entirely new markets (in this case micropayments) to develop,” Kendrick wrote in a Tuesday note.

Market-implied probabilities derived from event contracts show that investors think there’s a 30% chance the token will go lower than $40 in 2026. On the bullish side, traders are pricing in a 41% chance it will climb higher that $200 in the same period.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Even though the firm expects solana to trade significantly higher by the end of the year, the firm lowered its initial forecast of $310 and predicts the token will underperform ethereum in the next two years.

“Beyond that, if it achieves sufficient scale, we think SOL will be due for a catch-up as this new market takes shape,” Kendrick said.

On a longer horizon, Standard Chartered predicts the token will climb to $2,000 by 2030.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

13h

Bernstein analyst says bitcoin could bottom out at $60,000, but expects its “most consequential cycle” after that

“This is not a ‘bull market correction’ or ‘a dip.’ It is a full-bore, 2022-like, Leonardo-DiCaprio-in-The-Revenant-style crypto winter,” Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan wrote.