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Citi analysts: Ethereum will drop to $4,300 by end of year

The analysts gave a bull case for the crypto to rise to $6,400 and a bear case for it to drop as far as $2,200.

Yaël Bizouati-Kennedy

Citigroup analysts expect ethereum, the second-largest crypto by market cap, to drop to $4,300 by the end of the year, below its current price range around $4,450 and well below the $4,953 all-time high it hit on August 24.

Citi analysts have a bull case of $6,400 and a bear case of $2,200, according to a September 16 research note.

“The bull case is predicated on increasing activity, potentially from stablecoins or tokenization. The bear case, similar to bitcoin, will be driven by recessionary macro factors, particularly falling equities. As we move towards year-end, the uncertainty will drop, and the bull and bear cases move closer to our base-case,” the analysts wrote.

They added that flows into ethereum ETFs “have had a larger price-impact than bitcoin, although they explain less of weekly return variation.”

Meanwhile, others in the ethereum world are more bullish on its trajectory. Mark Newton, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing director and global head of technical strategy, said, “ETH en route to $5,500 into mid-October.”

This is also lower than the forecast from Standard Chartered Bank, which last month raised its price target to $7,500 by the end of 2025 and $25,000 by the end of 2028.

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick wrote in a Monday note that going forward, ethereum treasuries will see more inflows compared to bitcoin or solana treasuries and are more likely to be profitable.

“At the same time as MSTR imitators have surged in BTC DATs, the move into other assets, particularly ETH, has been nothing short of spectacular. ETH DATs now hold 3.1% of all ETH in circulation and SOL DATs hold 0.8%,” Kendrick wrote.

In other ethereum news, SharpLink Gaming, the second-largest corporate ethereum treasury, with 838,152 ethereum worth over $3.7 billion, announced it repurchased 1 million shares at an average purchase price of $16.67 per share as part of the $1.5 billion buyback program it started in August.  

The company has so far bought back 1.9 million shares, stating in a press release, “The company continues to believe its common stock is significantly undervalued in the market, and that stock repurchases represent the best method to maximize stockholder value under current market conditions.” 

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Altcoin trading activity has lost its mojo

Non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies have seen their trading volume plummet in the past five months. The combined trading volume of ethereum, XRP, solana, dogecoin, SUI, and chainlink has decreased by 60% since crypto’s October 10 liquidation event, according to Thomas Probst, a research analyst at crypto markets data provider Kaiko.

Main Altcoins Trading Volume in USD
The trading volume of ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE, SUI, and LINK.

For all altcoins, spot trading volume on Binance has declined between 80% and 85% to $7.7 billion, while altcoin volume on other exchanges has dropped to $18.8 billion, down from a range of $63 billion to $91 billion in October, a Friday report from Decrypt found, citing data from CryptoQuant.

“This trend may be explained by a contraction in market liquidity over the same period,” Probst told Sherwood News. “This phenomenon is also reflected in the average 1% market depth, which stood at approximately $2.6 million before the October 10 crash and is now closer to $1.7 million when aggregated across ETH, XRP, SOL, SUI, and LINK.” 

Market depth is used by investors and traders to gauge the scale of liquidity in a market. 1% market depth refers to the amount of liquidity needed to move the market by 1%. 

CoinGlass’s Altcoin Season Index, a measure to assess the performance of non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies, has been sitting above 50 this week, suggesting that the current market is neither in a bitcoin dominant phase nor an altcoin season.

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Payward, parent company of crypto exchange Kraken, puts plans for IPO on hold

Payward, crypto exchange Kraken’s parent company, has paused its plans for an initial public offering until market conditions improve, according to a report from CoinDesk that cited two people with knowledge of the matter. 

Since the firm announced in November its preparation for an IPO of its common stock, the total market capitalization of the crypto industry has shed around $652.2 billion, from $3.2 trillion to $2.5 trillion as of Wednesday, data from CoinGecko shows. 

The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions. 

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

The news comes two weeks after Kraken received approval for a master account from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, allowing the crypto exchange to connect to the Fed’s payment infrastructure used by traditional banks and credit unions. 

Last year, Kraken raised $800 million at a $20 billion valuation from institutional investors such as Jane Street and Citadel Securities.

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