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Citi analysts: Ethereum will drop to $4,300 by end of year

The analysts gave a bull case for the crypto to rise to $6,400 and a bear case for it to drop as far as $2,200.

Citigroup analysts expect ethereum, the second-largest crypto by market cap, to drop to $4,300 by the end of the year, below its current price range around $4,450 and well below the $4,953 all-time high it hit on August 24.

Citi analysts have a bull case of $6,400 and a bear case of $2,200, according to a September 16 research note.

“The bull case is predicated on increasing activity, potentially from stablecoins or tokenization. The bear case, similar to bitcoin, will be driven by recessionary macro factors, particularly falling equities. As we move towards year-end, the uncertainty will drop, and the bull and bear cases move closer to our base-case,” the analysts wrote.

They added that flows into ethereum ETFs “have had a larger price-impact than bitcoin, although they explain less of weekly return variation.”

Meanwhile, others in the ethereum world are more bullish on its trajectory. Mark Newton, Fundstrat Global Advisors managing director and global head of technical strategy, said, “ETH en route to $5,500 into mid-October.”

This is also lower than the forecast from Standard Chartered Bank, which last month raised its price target to $7,500 by the end of 2025 and $25,000 by the end of 2028.

Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick wrote in a Monday note that going forward, ethereum treasuries will see more inflows compared to bitcoin or solana treasuries and are more likely to be profitable.

“At the same time as MSTR imitators have surged in BTC DATs, the move into other assets, particularly ETH, has been nothing short of spectacular. ETH DATs now hold 3.1% of all ETH in circulation and SOL DATs hold 0.8%,” Kendrick wrote.

In other ethereum news, SharpLink Gaming, the second-largest corporate ethereum treasury, with 838,152 ethereum worth over $3.7 billion, announced it repurchased 1 million shares at an average purchase price of $16.67 per share as part of the $1.5 billion buyback program it started in August.  

The company has so far bought back 1.9 million shares, stating in a press release, “The company continues to believe its common stock is significantly undervalued in the market, and that stock repurchases represent the best method to maximize stockholder value under current market conditions.” 

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XRP ETFs have now crossed $1 billion in assets since the funds launched, according to SoSoValue, which shows total assets of $1.18 billion.

In September, the SEC approved generic listing standards, which paved the way for speedier listings and opened the floodgates for these products, and shortly after, Rex-Osprey launched the first spot XRP ETF available in the US.

Canary followed suit in November, launching an ETF trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker XRPC, which saw a record $58.5 million in trading volume on its first day. It’s the largest XRP ETF in the US, with $342 million in assets.

Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton also launched their own XRP ETFs in November. On December 11, 21Shares joined the XRP fund party.

It’s a noteworthy green shoot in the crypto space, as bitcoin and its ETFs have struggled, and XRP itself is down nearly 15% over the past month.

Jake Hanley, managing director and senior portfolio specialist at Teucrium Investment Advisors — which launched the first-ever XRP-based ETF in April, the 2x Long Daily XRP ETF — told Sherwood News that he is not surprised to see this level of interest in the XRP ETFs.

“We have long held that XRP and the Ripple ecosystem present a unique investment case among crypto assets. Crossing the $1 billion mark is yet another signal of the significant vote of confidence investors have in this increasingly important asset and ecosystem,” Hanley said.

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New bitcoin AfterDark ETF will be bitcoin at night, Treasurys by day

Tidal Trust II submitted form N-1A with the SEC to register a bitcoin ETF designed to systemically capture the cryptocurrency’s overnight return profile, a time window that delivered a significant portion of bitcoin’s upside last year.

The Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF provides long bitcoin exposure during US overnight hours, from the closing bell until the following morning’s market open, when the fund intends to unwind its positions, according to a document filed with the SEC on Tuesday. 

To gain that exposure, the ETF may use a number of methods, including bitcoin futures contracts, US-listed ETFs, or exchange-traded options on such bitcoin underlying funds. When the market is open and daytime trading is active, the fund’s portfolio will consist of US Treasury securities and other cash equivalents. 

In 2024, most of bitcoin’s gains occurred after-hours, senior Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reported:

The AfterDark ETF filing comes as bitcoin crossed $94,000 on Tuesday, rising 4.5% in the last 24 hours. Even though spot bitcoin ETFs saw nearly $60.5 million in outflows on Monday, the investment vehicles have a cumulative net inflow of $57.6 billion, per SoSoValue.

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