Citi analysts set bitcoin bull case at $189,000 in 2026
Citi’s base case 12-month forecast for bitcoin is $143,000, which is well above the asset’s current all-time high.
Bitcoin is entering its final week of the year down 30% from its October 6 all-time high. As for bitcoin ETFs, they registered $1.08 billion in outflows in December, the third-largest monthly exodus, according to SoSoValue.
In their 2026 digital assets outlook, Citi analysts set a 12-month base case assumption for bitcoin at $143,000, driven mainly by “revived ETF demand.” They set a bull case assumption of $189,000, and a bear case, premised on “recessionary macro factors,” of $78,000.
“That said, bitcoin trades at around our activity-based estimates, so we would expect range trading in the $80k-$100k range until we see legislative progress, possibly in Q2 of next year. Volatility remains, and pre-election levels of around $70k would be an important psychological level,” the analysts wrote.
Meanwhile, market-implied probabilities derived from event contracts show that traders believe there’s a 12% chance bitcoin hits $150,000 before May 2026 and a 10% chance it reaches that before April.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood News that while the long-term case for bitcoin hasn’t changed, in the short term, there are potential catalysts for further pain on the horizon.
He said that in the early weeks of 2026, several factors could weigh heavily on bitcoin, including worries over the debt ceiling, another potential shutdown, and uncertainty over the CLARITY Act.
If Kevin Hassett is appointed as the next Fed chair, this could buoy the price briefly, “but if we have learnt anything this year, it’s that one positive announcement isn’t enough to reignite the crypto rally,” Puckrin continued.
“I still see bitcoin hitting a new all-time high in 2026, but it likely won’t be in January, and it may well retrace lower as market jitters continue, with around $82,000 acting as a strong support level from here,” he said.
