October 10 liquidation event is still a major weight on bitcoin’s price as analysts eye the $70,000 level
“I suspect, based on increased volatility and current price, we are not far from the bottom,” one expert said.
Bitcoin dropped to its lowest level on Tuesday since President Trump’s election in November 2024, and is down 4.3% in the past 24 hours, as of 9:30 a.m. ET. The asset is hovering at just above the $75,000 level, an over 40% drop from its October 6 all-time high.
“Much of this can be attributed to the October 10 crash across the entire crypto market, precipitated by Binance’s illiquid markets liquidating tens of billions of dollars in a single day,” Alexander Blume, CEO of Two Prime, told Sherwood News.
The total crypto market cap stands at $2.6 trillion today. It had hit $4.2 trillion the day before the October 10 liquidation event.
Blume said that this level of selling pressure has ultimately led to a liquidity crunch, with prices catching up now.
On a macro level, the pullback in gold and silver has created heightened volatility and fear across all markets, with bitcoin hit directly, “though it sadly didn’t enjoy the upside of the rally,” he said.
“I suspect, based on increased volatility and current price, we are not far from the bottom,” Blume said.
Crypto liquidations have reached $758 million in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass, and are nearing $7 billion in the past week. Meanwhile, bitcoin ETFs are back in the red, registering $272 million in outflows on Tuesday, SoSoValue data shows.
Nic Puckrin, cofounder of Coin Bureau, told Sherwood that with bitcoin breaking the 50-week moving average bull trend back in November and the 100-week moving average two weeks ago, it’s clear momentum is pulling it lower.
“The next key level to watch below the current price is around $70,000 — it’s just above the last cycle’s ATH of $69,000, so it’s a psychological barrier,” Puckrin said.
Puckrin added that if bitcoin breaks below this level, it could be heading toward its bear market low.
“The range I’m watching here is $55,700-$58,200, which sits between the average realized price of all coins and the 200-week moving average,” he said.
Citi analysts said the Fed chair nomination of Kevin Warsh, “who is known to prefer a smaller balance sheet,” coupled with the possibility of a crypto winter “may be contributing to the angst.”
The analysts said in a February 4 note that a key level to watch is the “US pre-election level of $70K.”
Longer-term, some analysts said bitcoin’s drop reflects broader risk-off sentiment rather than a fundamental break in demand.
Nic Roberts-Huntley, CEO and cofounder of Blueprint Finance, told Sherwood that after a sharp sell-off over the past few weeks and a brief recovery attempt, BTC struggled to hold key technical levels as liquidity dried up and forced liquidations intensified.
“That said, if macro clarity returns, liquidity improves, and key support holds, bitcoin could stabilize and set the stage for a recovery rally later in the cycle. In the near term, traders and investors should be watching whether BTC can defend the mid-$70,000s and reclaim the $78,000–$80,000 zone as key levels to monitor,” Roberts-Huntley said.
