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Prediction markets show Chalamet in the lead for Best Actor, but Actor Awards could shake up race

The final voting period has kicked off for the 98th Academy Awards. Up until last weekend, many of the main categories seemed like a lock. While “Hamnet” star Jessie Buckley has been the predicted front-runner for the Best Actress statuette for some time now, the Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor and Actress races have been upended following the BAFTA Film Awards.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

While Timothée Chamalet still remains in the lead for the Best Actor prize, his odds have gone down slightly after he lost the BAFTA award, while the wins of Wunmi Mosaku and Sean Penn in the supporting categories have made it a more exciting race. Here’s a roundup of what some experts and awards pundits have said this week:

  • While Gold Derby still has Chalamet as the front-runner for the Actor Award (and the Oscar), his odds have gone down slightly following the BAFTA loss. Surprisingly, the publication has “Weapons” star Amy Madigan in the lead to win the Actor Award for supporting actress, while they have Penn as the front-runner getting the Actor Award for supporting actor.

  • Numlock Awards reports that the BAFTA Awards reshaped the Oscars race, with Chalamet’s loss throwing the Best Actor race “into chaos” following “I Swear” star Robert Aramayo’s win. (He was not eligible to be nominated for an Oscar.)

  • Meanwhile, Variety’s Clayton Davis reports that the Oscars race has officially become “fractured, unpredictable and thrilling” following the BAFTA Awards. However, he predicts that “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan will win the Actor Award this weekend and has heard rumblings that “Blue Moon” star Ethan Hawke could pull a last-minute victory. 

  • IndieWire’s Anne Thompson says that Chalamet is “good to go” for the Actor Awards and the Oscars, adding that the Best Supporting Actress and Actor categories are the ones to keep an eye on.

  • Deadline’s Pete Hammond believes that Chalamet’s BAFTA loss doesn’t necessarily impact the Actor Awards — Aramayo isn’t nominated for an Oscar and the BAFTA Awards tend to favor homegrown actors. He agreed with many of the other pundits in that Mosaku and Penn’s wins add more suspense.

  • AwardsRadar’s Joey Magidson points out that no one has ever won two Actor Awards in a row, which could open Chalamet up to an upset win from Hawke. 

  • Meanwhile, AwardsWatch’s Erik Anderson has Chalamet as a lock for the Actor Award, though he lists Jordan as the follow-up should there be a surprise win in that category.

The Actor Awards are on Sunday, and whoever wins that evening could lock in the fate of the actors in the lead and supporting Oscar categories.

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