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Tom Jones

“Wicked” had an impressive first weekend

Defying gravity, box-office estimates, and its higher-budget competition, “Wicked” has smashed its first few days.

A Broadway mainstay since it opened on the Great White Way over two decades ago, fans of the witch-based story seem just as keen to see Glinda and Elphaba grace the silver screen, as the movie opened to $114 million domestically and another $50 million worldwide.

After a much-discussed press tour with stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, and some efforts to promote the idea of “Glicked” — the movie dropped in the US on the same weekend as Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II” — “Wicked” managed the biggest Broadway musical movie adaptation debut in history, per Variety.

Though the $55 million domestic start for “Gladiator II” wasn’t to be sniffed at, it paled in comparison to the musical’s haul. Indeed, “Wicked” will only need a few more strong showings in the run-up to Christmas to become one of the highest-grossing musicals of all time.

American musicals chart
Sherwood News

According figures from The Numbers, “Wicked” needs to break through the $217 million mark at the domestic office to become one of the top 10 highest-grossing movie musicals of all time.

Despite the recent trend of movie musicals somewhat masking their genre in the run-up to their release — the trailers for 2023’s “Wonka” and “The Color Purple,” as well as this year’s “Mean Girls” were all weirdly light on songs — tune-filled films can still win big at the box office, with “Beauty and the Beast” taking $606 million in 2017 and the “Frozen” films grossing over $1 billion between them (inflation-adjusted).

After a much-discussed press tour with stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, and some efforts to promote the idea of “Glicked” — the movie dropped in the US on the same weekend as Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II” — “Wicked” managed the biggest Broadway musical movie adaptation debut in history, per Variety.

Though the $55 million domestic start for “Gladiator II” wasn’t to be sniffed at, it paled in comparison to the musical’s haul. Indeed, “Wicked” will only need a few more strong showings in the run-up to Christmas to become one of the highest-grossing musicals of all time.

American musicals chart
Sherwood News

According figures from The Numbers, “Wicked” needs to break through the $217 million mark at the domestic office to become one of the top 10 highest-grossing movie musicals of all time.

Despite the recent trend of movie musicals somewhat masking their genre in the run-up to their release — the trailers for 2023’s “Wonka” and “The Color Purple,” as well as this year’s “Mean Girls” were all weirdly light on songs — tune-filled films can still win big at the box office, with “Beauty and the Beast” taking $606 million in 2017 and the “Frozen” films grossing over $1 billion between them (inflation-adjusted).

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show “One Battle After Another” leads in Oscar race for Best Picture

It’s finally Oscars week — and with voting officially closed, all that’s left to do is count the ballots and wait to see who wins this Sunday night. 

This year, the acting categories have been the most interesting to watch, especially the showdown between “Marty Supreme” star Timothée Chalamet and “Sinners” actor Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor. While Chalamet was long the favorite, Jordan has caught up and overtaken him after winning the Actor Award.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But perhaps the most exciting race of all is for Best Picture. Out of the 10 nominees, the two at the top are Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” both of which are studio releases from Warner Bros. Discovery

Which will win the top prize seems to be split among award pundits and experts. As of Monday afternoon, Gold Derby still has “One Battle After Another” as the front-runner with odds of 76.87%. AwardsWatch, AwardsRadar, and Numlock Awards are also still predicting that “One Battle After Another” will take the statue for Best Picture.

On the other side, reporters from some major trade publications like Variety’s Clayton Davis and The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg predict that “Sinners” will take the top honor.

Odds in the prediction markets currently show that “One Battle After Another” is still ahead of “Sinners,” with the former priced in at 75% while the latter is priced at 23%.

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Saleah Blancaflor

Prediction markets show Jordan catching up to Chalamet following Actor Awards

The Screen Actors Guild hosted its Actor Awards on Sunday, with the film awards closely monitored ahead of the Academy Awards. The Best Supporting Actor and Actress races remain suspenseful as Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) and Amy Madigan (Weapons) took home the Actor Awards in those respective categories, shifting the odds in both markets predicting who’ll take home the Oscar.

(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

But the most exciting race is for Best Actor. Several award pundits and experts predicted that Marty Supreme star Timothée Chalamet was a lock for the Actor Award despite his loss at the BAFTA Film Awards the previous weekend. But a few suggested that either Blue Moonlead Ethan Hawke or Michael B. Jordan could receive the honor instead. And thats exactly what happened when the Sinners star was announced as the winner.

While some have pointed out that the Actor Awards arent a reliable signifier for who will win the Oscar (Demi Moore and Chalamet received the SAG honors last year, but didn’t win the Oscar), it certainly puts Jordan at a higher advantage and makes the Best Actor race closer than its ever been. Chalamet previously had a higher lead in the prediction markets, but markets are now pricing in a 49% chance he takes the Oscar while Jordan’s odds have risen to 40%.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.