Markets
markets
Luke Kawa

Will gold keep leaving digital gold in the dust?

Gold is the best-trending asset in financial markets. The shiny metal hasn’t traded below its 200-day moving average since November 2023, and currently sits about 25% above that level. Not the S&P 500, nor the Nasdaq 100, nor even Nvidia can boast nearly as long of a positive streak.

And bitcoin, which has been called “digital gold,” certainly can’t either: in Q4, the crypto asset is behaving the opposite of gold, trading 20% below its 200-day moving average for the first time since Q4 2022.

Bitcoin has traditionally been a phenomenal barometer for assessing speculative vibes, which makes this year’s gap between its performance and that of fringier, unprofitable stocks amid a bevy of call buying even more befuddling. 2025 is poised to be the first year in over a decade that bitcoin has fallen relative to gold as the S&P 500 has increased. 

The ratio of bitcoin to gold hit its 2025 high the session after President Trump’s inauguration, and all-time peak in between the election and his returning to office. The idea that the “crypto president” catalyzed a “sell the news” dynamic for this pair at the start of his second term in the same way that “build a wall and Mexico’s going to pay for it” put in a pre-Covid top for USDMXN at the start of his first term looks fairly appealing, especially with a dearth of fundamental news available to explain crypto’s price gyrations.

1 BTC still = 1 BTC. But at its peak relative to the shiny metal, one bitcoin bought you more than 40 troy ounces. Bitcoin doesn’t weigh anything, strictly speaking, but it’s worth less than half its weight in gold now compared to then.

This ratio and its constituent parts are well worth monitoring into 2026, as they might shed light on whether bitcoin’s relationship with risk assets has changed in some enduring way, or if its major underperformance this year is a function of how strong returns were as it became apparent Trump would return to office in 2024.

Gold, meanwhile, remains worth keeping a close eye on as the strength and longevity of its march higher — reinforced by retail traders riding momentum, systematic strategies owning things that go up, and central bank buying — suggest that any break in this trend would require a meaningful shift in the investing or macroeconomic backdrop, and the fallout would extend far beyond the shiny metal.

For instance, based on data going back to 1975, the only time gold’s exceeded its current streak of trading above its 200-day moving average ended in 2011. That roughly coincided with the post-2009 intermediate bottoms for home building and banking stocks, which had been in a prolonged malaise even years after the post-financial crisis recession had ended.

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Luke Kawa
7/2/26
US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%

Job growth was 57,000. Analysts foresaw job growth of 113,000; prediction markets were more optimistic, looking for job growth above 125,000 but below 150,000.

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Luke Kawa
7/1/26
Meta surges on report it’s starting a cloud business to sell excess AI compute

The story of the hyperscalers in 2026 has largely been “the beatings will continue until the cash flow outlook improves;” this could help change the story for Meta. Or not.

Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg visits U.S. Capitol for Senate meetings
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Paige Oamek

Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

markets
Helena Cheng

Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

markets
Jake Lahut

Comcast shares rise on news of NBCUniversal spinoff deal

Comcast rose on the news that the telecom behemoth is spinning off NBCUniversal and Sky from its cable portfolio. 

Comcast initially jumped up to 17% in early trading, with the deal leaving management to focus on its core verticals of cable, wireless, and business services. 

NBCUniversal and Sky will form a new publicly traded company, similar to Versant Media, the holding company of CNBC and MS NOW that Comcast officially spun off in January. Bravo, one of the most lucrative properties that remained at Comcast, will remain part of NBCUniversal in the deal. The Universal theme parks and studios will also come with the new spinoff entity, along with Telemundo and Peacock.

Mike Cavanagh, the co-CEO of Comcast, will become the CEO for NBCUniversal, according to CNBC. 

The spinoff will be completed in about a year, according to a Comcast company statement. Its shareholders will also own shares in NBCUniversal, according to the same statement.

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