AI’s contribution to US stock market wealth: $8.5 trillion

$8.5T

Analysts at consulting firm Pantheon Macroeconomics estimate that the stock market’s enthusiasm for all things AI has added some $8.5 trillion to aggregate US household wealth since late 2022. They wrote:

“The S&P 500 returned about 70% between the start of ChatGPT mania around the end of 2022 to the end of Q2 2025, with roughly half of those returns generated by the ‘magnificent seven’ tech stocks, a very rough proxy for the stock market boost from AI euphoria.

We estimate that translates into a lift to household wealth held in stocks of about $8.5T.”

As my colleague Luke Kawa recently wrote, stock market wealth seems to be underpinning US consumer spending, especially among the richest Americans. Some of that spending may retrench if AI is indeed a bubble — as some have recently mooted — and eventually pops.

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For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, the company reported:

Revenue of $224.2 million — down 14% year on year, but above the Wall Street consensus estimate of $221 million (per data compiled by Bloomberg).
Adjusted EBITDA of $71.6 million, beating analyst expectations of $63.5 million.

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Adjusted EBITDA of $76 million to $80 million, well ahead of analysts’ consensus estimate of $57.7 million.
Revenue in the range of $209 million to $213 million, roughly meeting Wall Street expectations of $210 million.

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In the company’s press release, Wolfe Herd commented on its strategic overhaul: “With the heavy lift of our quality reset behind us, we are accelerating product innovation and prioritizing member experience enhancements. We are building from a stronger base and positioning Bumble for its next chapter of product-led growth.”

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For the final quarter of FY2026, UiPath posted revenue of $481 million, just above analysts’ consensus estimate of $465 million (compiled by Bloomberg), and adjusted earnings per share of $0.30, topping Wall Street estimates by 18%. The company’s annualized recurring revenue grew 11% year over year to $1.853 billion, and the quarter also rounded out the company’s first profitable full year, with a GAAP operating income of $57 million for fiscal 2026.

Despite the better-than-expected results, shares slumped seemingly on the company’s conservative growth guidance. UiPath expects the following for the full year ending January 31, 2027:

Revenue between $1.754 billion and $1.759 billion, which would signal a slowdown in year-over-year growth to at least 9%, compared with 13% in the latest full-year results.
ARR in the range of $2.051 billion to $2.056 billion as of January 31, 2027.
Non-GAAP operating income of approximately $415 million.

In the wake of the results, a number of analysts have cut their price targets, suggesting that Wall Street was implicitly hoping for more exciting guidance. Morgan Stanley’s analyst cut their price target to $17 (from $19), Canaccord dropped its target to $15 (from $19), and UBS lowered it to $13 (from $17).

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