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Analyst: “Longer-term vectors that drive the stock’s value” haven’t changed for Tesla

A longtime Tesla bull on yesterday’s market meshugas.

6/6/25 12:39PM

Longtime Tesla bull Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley is out with a note putting a characteristically optimistic spin on yesterday’s high-profile feud between Elon Musk and the president. He writes:

“1. Credits. We do not believe the phasing out of EV tax credits from the BBB (Big Beautiful Bill) is material to the long term outlook for TSLA.
2. Distraction. We believe Tesla’s recent 50% rally was driven primarily by hopes that Elon Musk would refocus time and attention on Tesla.
3. Cars. While the situation remains fluid, we believe the disagreement will not help Tesla demand but could potentially (temporarily) alienate multiple sides of the political spectrum.
4. Bigger picture. While emotions are running high, we are not convinced the longer-term vectors that drive the stock’s value have changed here. AI leadership, autonomy/robotics, manufacturing, supply chain re-architecture, renewable power, critical infrastructure... Tesla still holds so many valuable cards that are largely apolitical, in our opinion.
5. Volatility. When putting our trading cap on, we have higher conviction in near-term volatility than near-term direction. We reiterate our $410 price target but are prepared for the stock to give up more than just the 4 weeks of performance it has sacrificed so far.”

True-to-form Jonas remains one of the most optimistic Wall Street analysts on the company, with a $410 share price on the stock, about a 35% premium to where the stock was trading midday Friday and far higher than the Wall Street consensus price target of $308.

Jonas writes that his optimism is based on his “belief that Tesla’s capabilities in key areas of physical AI (autonomous vehicles, humanoids and other form factors) including data, robotics, energy storage, compute, manufacturing and space/comms/networking/infrastructure offer growth and margin opportunities that greatly exceed those of the traditional EV business,” adding that “the challenges facing Tesla’s current business are widely reported and well known, while the opportunities in the future business are potentially greatly underestimated.”

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SpaceX received more than a dozen positive analyst calls on Tuesday — including from major Wall Street banks — as they initiate coverage on Elon Musk’s space and AI company.

SpaceX went public on June 12 at a $2.2 trillion valuation, the largest debut in history. While the company hasn’t yet posted a profit, it seems to have convinced Wall Street that it will get there and grow its valuation on the way.

Of the at least 17 analysts that gave a rating on Tuesday, all but one gave it a “buy” or “outperform” rating. MoffettNathanson was "neutral."

The ratings come as SpaceX joined the Nasdaq 100 index, a benchmark tech-heavy basket of companies that underpins millions of portfolios. The inclusion adds built-in demand for the stock from index funds and ETFs.

Still, SpaceX fell more than 5% on Tuesday amid a broader sell-off, and is currently effectively flat from its opening price of $150 a share.

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

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Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).
Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

Analyst: “Longer-term vectors that drive the stock’s value” haven’t changed for Tesla

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