US job growth falls far short of estimates in June; unemployment rate unexpectedly dips to 4.2%
Job growth was 57,000. Analysts foresaw job growth of 113,000; prediction markets were more optimistic, looking for job growth above 125,000 but below 150,000.
The US June jobs report had something for everyone:
On the one hand, non-farm payrolls rose by just 57,000. Analysts foresaw job growth of 113,000; prediction markets were more optimistic, looking for job growth above 125,000 but below 150,000.
On the other hand, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped a tick to 4.2%.
Economists (as well as prediction markets) thought the unemployment rate would come in at 4.3%.
(Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)
US equity futures rose to their highs of the morning in the wake of this print, as traders anticipate that the soft headline job growth reduces any urgency for rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Two-year Treasury yields declined to 4.11% from 4.19% in the minutes following this release, and the US dollar sank versus major trading partners.
The improvement in labor market data year to date coupled with sticky price pressures has prompted the Federal Reserve to ditch its easing bias at its last meeting in June, with the dot plot signaling that an increase would be more likely as a cut this year.
Prediction markets came into this print thinking it was a coin flip on whether or not the US central bank would hike rates in 2026.
