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AppLovin rebounds as Citi says tumble on report of SEC probe is a buying opportunity

AppLovin got thwacked late in the session on Monday following a report by Bloomberg that the SEC is investigating the ad tech company’s data collection practices.

Shares are paring some of that decline on Tuesday, up about 3% in early trading. Citi analyst Jason Bazinet calls yesterday's late tumble “a bit extreme,” as he estimates it’s equivalent to pricing in a $680 million hit to revenues.

“We would be buyers on any weakness,” he wrote.

Bazinet, who has a “buy” rating and $850 price target on AppLovin — the highest among all analysts polled by Bloomberg — suggested the company’s response to the report implies it may not be that serious of an issue, in management’s eyes. AppLovin told Bloomberg that it would disclose material developments through appropriate public channels.

“We view the lack of an 8K filing as a positive in that the firm does not view this probe as a ‘material’ risk,” he wrote. “In addition, we would suspect Apple and Google would properly monitor their respective platforms and enforce any potential violations.”

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Max Knoblauch2h

Lucid sinks following weaker-than-expected Q3 vehicle deliveries and lowered analyst outlook

Lucid delivered 4,078 vehicles in its third quarter, the seventh straight quarterly delivery record for the luxury EV maker. But despite that year-over-year growth, the figure came in below Wall Street’s estimates by about 18% in a quarter where EV makers (including luxury competitors like Rivian) sold thousands of vehicles leading up to the expiration of the US federal EV tax credit.

Lucid shares fell more than 8% in Tuesday trading. Also likely making investors skittish was a freshly lowered Lucid rating by CFRA from “sell” to “strong sell.”

CFRA analyst Garrett Nelson wrote that the rating drop “reflects concerns regarding LCID’s cash burn rate, weak demand, pricing pressures, EV competition, and the fact it is nowhere near close to achieving the mass production rates needed to meaningfully drive down unit costs.” CFRA’s price target for Lucid is $10, 55% below the stock’s current price.

Nelson argues customer demand is a major issue for Lucid, which hasn’t updated its full-year production guidance of 18,000 to 20,000 vehicles since its earnings report in August. To achieve the low end of that range, Lucid will need to build more than 8,000 vehicles in its fourth quarter, which would reflect Q4 production growth of 137% year over year.

Prediction Markets Crystal Ball Image

Intercontinental Exchange makes strategic investment in Polymarket in bet on prediction markets

DraftKings and Flutter fell on the news, as prediction markets are clearly gaining traction and the risk to sports betting apps grows.

Matt Phillips2h

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Oracle tumbles after report that it’s lost nearly $100 million from renting out access to Nvidia’s Blackwell chips

You buy Nvidia’s flagship chips because they’re supposed to be best in class, empowering you to build better AI capabilities or make lots money off other companies that want to harness the power of the AI boom.

Not quite, per this report from The Information, whose final paragraph begins with this line:

“In the three months that ended in August, Oracle lost nearly $100 million from rentals of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips, which arrived this year.”

The report notes that some of this is a timing issue, a gap between getting data centers equipped for use and when customers start paying for services.

Oracle, which was roughly flat, quickly fell more than 5% as traders digested this report. Shares of Nvidia, which were up nearly 2% at their highs of the day, turned negative.

Citing internal documents, The Information says that Oracle’s “fast-growing cloud business has had razor-thin gross profit margins in the past year or so,” booking a gross profit of $125 million on rentals of servers that utilize Nvidia chips for the three months ending in August, for a gross margin of just under 14%.

The damage in markets is far from localized in those two stocks, however. In a reversal of how OpenAI’s deal with AMD buoyed the AI trade on Monday, this news is sparking a broad-based retreat.

Nvidia’s top AI chip rival, Broadcom, went from flat to down 2%, with memory chip specialist Micron and foundry giant TSMC also well in the red. Neocloud companies Nebius and CoreWeave, disk drive sellers Western Digital and Seagate Technology Holdings, data center companies IREN and Cipher Mining, and zero-revenue nuclear energy firm Okloare among the other stocks selling off on the news.

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AMD soars again after getting more than 20 price target hikes across Wall Street following its deal with OpenAI

Over the past 24 hours, Wall Street has been scrambling to revise its view on how high shares of Advanced Micro Devices can climb in the wake of its recently announced megadeal with OpenAI.

While the terms of the arrangement may raise some eyebrows, Wall Street is expecting that OpenAI’s big foray into AMD’s AI chips will serve as a validation point and magnet for other potential buyers.

“OpenAI is arguably the most disruptive of GenAI cloud computing customers, and its success is likely to act as a force multiplier for other cloud vendors and LLM providers to accelerate their capex, positive for multiple chip, memory, optical, networking, and foundry suppliers,” wrote Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya, who estimates the agreement could be worth over $100 billion over the next four to six years.

As of publishing, we’ve tallied up 22 cases where the sell side has hiked its price target on the chip designer since news of the deal broke:

Jefferies, to $300 from $170 (also upgraded the stock to “buy” and had raised its price target just last week!)
Melius, to $300 from $200
Barclays, to $300 from $200
Wells Fargo, to $275 from $185
Argus Research, to $275 from $200
Cantor Fitzgerald, to $275 from $200
Truist, to $273 from $213
Benchmark, to $270 from $210
New Street Research, to $265 from $230
Bank of America, to $250 from $200
Roth Capital, to $250 from $200
Morgan Stanley, to $246 from $168
Baird, to $240 from $175
President Capital Management, to $240 from $186
Evercore ISI, to $240 from $188
Stifel, to $240 from $190
Piper Sandler, to $240 from $190
Citi, to $215 from $180
Goldman Sachs, to $210 from $150
Morningstar, to $210 from $155
Bernstein, to $200 from $140
Deutsche Bank, to $200 from $150

Bloomberg has average price target data going back to September 2005. Over the past two decades and change, there have been only 12 instances where the two-day average price target rose more than the 16% upward revision since the OpenAI pact was announcement.

Jefferies, to $300 from $170 (also upgraded the stock to “buy” and had raised its price target just last week!)
Melius, to $300 from $200
Barclays, to $300 from $200
Wells Fargo, to $275 from $185
Argus Research, to $275 from $200
Cantor Fitzgerald, to $275 from $200
Truist, to $273 from $213
Benchmark, to $270 from $210
New Street Research, to $265 from $230
Bank of America, to $250 from $200
Roth Capital, to $250 from $200
Morgan Stanley, to $246 from $168
Baird, to $240 from $175
President Capital Management, to $240 from $186
Evercore ISI, to $240 from $188
Stifel, to $240 from $190
Piper Sandler, to $240 from $190
Citi, to $215 from $180
Goldman Sachs, to $210 from $150
Morningstar, to $210 from $155
Bernstein, to $200 from $140
Deutsche Bank, to $200 from $150

Bloomberg has average price target data going back to September 2005. Over the past two decades and change, there have been only 12 instances where the two-day average price target rose more than the 16% upward revision since the OpenAI pact was announcement.

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Matt Phillips5h

IREN jumps after announcing multiyear cloud services contracts with “leading AI companies”

IREN shares soared in early trading for a second day after the bitcoin miner and AI compute provider issued a press release announcing new multiyear deals with “leading AI clients” to put its Nvidia GPUs to work on their behalf. The release did not provide any additional details on the nature of these customers.

The company said it “remains on track to achieve >$500m in annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) from the 23k GPUs currently operating and on order by the end of Q1 2026.”

Shares in the company have also benefited from a strong run-up in crypto prices recently and an upsurge in chatter about the company on the influential subreddit r/WallStreetBets. Call volumes — a favorite vehicle for risk-hungry retail traders — have surged in recent weeks.

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