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Matt Phillips1/8/26

AST SpaceMobile rises after favorable commentary from BofA

Mobile-services-from-space play — and retail investor favorite — AST SpaceMobile rose after receiving a target price upgrade from Bank of America analysts.

In a note published Thursday, BofA telecom services analysts lifted their price target for the stock to $100 from $85, while noting that the low-Earth orbit satellite industry — which supercharged stocks like Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, and AST in 2025 — is set to gain more attention this year:

“We expect the momentum to intensify in 2026 as providers like ASTS and Starlink jockey to offer full cellular service and capture subscribers. Debates will likely grow regarding Starlink’s plans to offer full cellular service and regulatory decisions on Ligado and EchoStar spectrum transactions are events to watch. Carrier partnerships could evolve and pricing and plan decisions should be clearer by year end as ASTS approaches full constellation operability.”

Still, they maintained their “neutral” rating on the stock, saying they “await progress on ASTS 1) fully producing and subsequently launching its BlueBird satellite constellation, 2) successfully operating the constellation, and 3) capturing subscribers and turning them into revenue paying subscribers before becoming more constructive on the story.”

The market has been less reticent: the money-losing company’s shares are up approximately 300% over the last year.

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Nvidia and AMD’s different deals show that while AI chatbots may be commoditized, the chips aren’t

One enigma I’m noticing in the AI boom?

The publicly available chatbots, effectively the best universal manifestation of artificial intelligence we have, feel more or less the same to me. That is, commoditized.

Maybe this is a skill issue; I’m not the most high-tech person. That being said, I have experienced substantial performance gaps between paid and free versions, and am aware that more specialized tools offer better tailored results for certain tasks (i.e. Claude Code). But still, I’m Gemini-first, but polyAImorous when it comes to chatbot usage.

Based on how Big Tech companies treat GPUs, the inputs used to train and run many chatbots, those seem to be anything but commoditized.

Two of the AI chip deals reached by Advanced Micro Devices, the No. 2 in GPUs, have involved the company forking over the rights to potentially massive equity stakes in the company in exchange for securing these buyers. First was OpenAI, then Tuesday’s pact with Meta.

Lisa Su and co. seemingly can’t get customers on normal terms the way Jensen Huang and co. can.

Nvidia, which reports earnings Wednesday after the close, enjoys a dominant market position. Sure, it subsidizes its customers’ acquisitions of chips, but it could be argued that this is just a way in investing in its own success by trying to make sure the company has as many viable future clients as possible. Nvidia and Meta’s “multi-year, multi-generational strategic partnership” that will see the social media giant buy millions of GPUs in the former didn’t involve the chip designer needing to give Mark Zuckerberg any potential equity exposure.

Nvidia’s offerings are able to command a significant premium because its hardware not only comes with a track record, but it’s also attached to the CUDA software system that AI developers are comfortable with.

In a sense, some of the best industry comps here are found in energy (something AI data centers chock-full of GPUs need a lot of!).

Different forms of crude can be refined into the same kind of gasoline; your car won’t know the difference. Similarly, hydropower, solar power, or natural gas can all be used to generate electricity, and as long as the lights are on, people won’t be able to tell which one it was.

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Matt Phillips1h

The vast majority of S&P 500 companies are talking about AI this earnings season, at least in broad strokes.

But precious few are disclosing hard numbers on how AI makes them more profitable, according to a review of Q4 earnings calls conducted by Goldman Sachs analysts.

In a note published late Tuesday, analysts with the bank found that just 1% of the members of the S&P 500 have “quantified the impact of AI on earnings.” That’s despite 70% of the blue-chip index’s members “broadly discussing AI” on earnings calls.

They wrote:

“In earnings calls, many companies have grouped AI with broader automation and productivity initiatives, making it difficult to disentangle the impact of AI specifically. 10% of S&P 500 companies quantified the productivity boost from an AI on a specific use case during their 4Q earnings calls, particularly among developers. Our economists recently highlighted softness in tech employment in recent months.”

Only two new companies quantified an AI productivity impact on their current earnings, Goldman found. One was financial analytics and ratings powerhouse S&P Global. The other was water treatment and commercial cleaning products manufacturer Ecolab.

The gap between the share of executives yapping about AI and the dearth of detail on the technology’s bottom-line impact may be part of the reason investors have gotten slightly jittery about AI during the recent flurry of earnings reports, with volatility on baskets of AI-related stocks picking up over the last month.

Investors know that tech giants are boosting the amount they plan to spend on AI investments in the coming year to over $600 billion. They also know that customers who will buy AI services from Amazon , Google, and Microsoft — to name a few — will have to see real benefits from using it.

If they don’t, the customers won’t keep paying. And there goes the hyperscalers’ ROI.

Anyway, we’re still waiting to see those benefits.

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Claire Yubin Oh3h

Albemarle and fellow lithium miners jump on Zimbabwe export ban

Lithium miners Albemarle Corp., Lithium Argentina, Lithium Americas, Mineral Resourcesand Sociedad Quimica y Minera are all rising in early trading on Wednesday after Zimbabwe suspended its export of all raw minerals and lithium concentrates.

The latest move accelerates a ban that was reportedly expected to come into effect starting January 2027, and will remain in place until further notice. As the top African producer of the metal, Zimbabwe exported some 1.13 million metric tons, or $514 million worth, of lithium-bearing spodumene concentrate in 2025.

Zimbabwe’s mines minister said the ban would remain in effect until companies comply with government requirements, per Bloomberg.

The ban adds further supply pressure into a market that’s already seen prices squeeze higher, with benchmark lithium futures roughly doubling since the end of October 2025. That’s spurred the shares of companies like Albemarle, which has gained more than 90% over the same time frame — a rare bright spot in an EV supply chain that’s generally been pretty depressed recently.

Some Wall Street analysts have gotten more bullish on the sector, too. Albemarle scored an upgrade from Bank of America analysts earlier this month, who cited the lithium market’s improvement in structural fundamentals, as Chinese supply restrictions combined with growing demand for utility-scale battery storage applications provide further support for lithium prices. Futures prices for lithium carbonate remain above $18 per kilogram, having been as high as $21 per kilogram in January.

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Max Knoblauch3h

Joby announces plans to offer air taxi rides in the Uber app in Dubai

Air taxi maker Joby Aviation is climbing in premarket trading on Wednesday following its announcement that Uber Air (a planned partnership to add Joby’s air taxis as a transport option in the Uber app) will launch in Dubai later this year.

Joby shares are up more than 6%.

According to its press release, booking an air taxi through the Uber app will also include an Uber Black pickup and drop-off.

First, Joby will need its air taxis certified for commercial service in the UAE. Last February, the company said it expected to be flying passengers in the country “in late 2025 or early 2026,” though that timeline appears to have been delayed. According to a report by The National in November, UAE authorities said they expect certification in the third quarter.

The company’s progress in the US is slower, though it entered the final stage of its FAA certification process last year and is expected to provide an update to that timeline when it reports its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes Wednesday.

The announcement marks a deepening of Joby and Uber’s partnership. Last year, Uber said it would add Joby’s Blade helicopter and seaplane services to its ride-hailing app.

Get Ready for Takeoff With Uber and Joby

Get Ready for Takeoff With Uber and Joby

According to its press release, booking an air taxi through the Uber app will also include an Uber Black pickup and drop-off.

First, Joby will need its air taxis certified for commercial service in the UAE. Last February, the company said it expected to be flying passengers in the country “in late 2025 or early 2026,” though that timeline appears to have been delayed. According to a report by The National in November, UAE authorities said they expect certification in the third quarter.

The company’s progress in the US is slower, though it entered the final stage of its FAA certification process last year and is expected to provide an update to that timeline when it reports its fourth-quarter earnings after the market closes Wednesday.

The announcement marks a deepening of Joby and Uber’s partnership. Last year, Uber said it would add Joby’s Blade helicopter and seaplane services to its ride-hailing app.

markets

Workday’s miserable year continues after soft revenue guidance sinks the stock

Workday slumped nearly 9% in after-hours trading Tuesday, and continued to languish in the red in early trading on Wednesday, after the HR and finance software company issued a lighter-than-expected subscription revenue outlook.

For the quarter ended January 31, subscription revenue — which makes up over 90% of total revenue — rose 15.7% year over year to $2.36 billion, in line with analysts’ estimates, while adjusted earnings per share of $2.47 topped the $2.32 expected.

However, guidance for the coming quarter, ending April 2026, came in a hair below analysts’ estimates, as did projections for fiscal 2027 subscription revenue of $9.93 billion to $9.95 billion, below the roughly $10 billion estimate on Wall Street.

The outlook comes amid broader AI-driven anxiety among software-as-a-service companies, with investors questioning whether generative-AI tools could displace traditional software vendors.

On the earnings call, CEO Aneel Bhusri pushed back on this narrative, arguing Workday’s domains are “really, really hard to build.” The company has been prioritizing investment in “agentic AI,” with its annualized revenue from AI products now topping $400 million.

Still, shares are now down ~45% year to date, marking the stock’s sharpest annual decline since going public in 2012. All told, shares are now 61% down from their all-time high.

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