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Competitors in the 2021 Lumberjack World Championships in Hayward, Wisconsin (Joel Lerner/Getty Images)

Barclays axes end-of-year target for S&P 500

Chop chop.

Barclays US equity analysts cut their aggregate earnings estimates and year-end price target on the S&P 500 Wednesday, citing uncertainty and the likely hit to profitability posed by the Trump administration’s ongoing tariff bonanza. They wrote:

Our revised YE25 S&P 500 price target of 5900 is based on 22.5x our base case EPS estimate of $262, and assumes that earnings take a hit but valuations gradually recover as some tariffs are put in place, stifling growth and modestly boosting inflation but ultimately stopping short of pushing the US into an outright recession.

As with our EPS estimates, our bull and bear case scenarios reflect significant uncertainties stemming from the muddled US tariff outlook. In our bull case, easing trade tensions allow growth to get back on track and for valuations to re-test t12m highs. In our bear case, the full impact of threatened tariffs push US growth materially lower — potentially below zero — and the SPX into a bear market selloff as valuations drop to previous cycle lows.

While the general population seems to have abandoned hopes for the stock market in light of the recent correction, Wall Street analysts, as you might expect, have been slower to acknowledge diminished expectations for the market.

But some have been doing it. A recent Barron’s piece noted that last week, Citi analysts seemed to suggest they were looking for a year-end level of about 5,500, at the bottom of their previous range of results. Yardeni Research recently reduced its “best case” target to 6,400 from 7,000, saying it may have underestimated the impact of tariffs. And on March 11, Goldman Sachs officially cut its S&P 500 target to 6,200 from 6,500, citing the steep sell-off of Magnificent 7 momentum stocks like Nvidia, Tesla, and Google parent Alphabet.

On the other hand, the overall movement of targets has been de minimis, with the FactSet consensus target price — a so-called bottom-up created by aggregating and weighting price targets for individual stocks — is still at about 6,920.

That implies a gain of over 20% from where the S&P is trading right now (near 5,710), which would require a pretty impressive rally for the remaining three quarters of the year.

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CoreWeave slumps after filings show top shareholder Magnetar Financial sold over $500 million in stock last week

CoreWeave is sinking after one of its earliest backers and top shareholders, Magnetar Financial, sold over $500 million in stock last week.

Filings released after the close on Friday showed the Illinois-based investment firm, its subsidiaries, and executives dumped $486 million from Wednesday through Friday, while separate statements released last Wednesday revealed $60 million in sales from earlier in the week.

After these divestments, Magnetar and its affiliated parties still own north of 72 million shares of the neocloud company.

Magnetar previously put on what looked to be a massive collar trade that protected the value of its CoreWeave position through mid-March of next year by selling calls with strike prices of $160 and $175 and buying put options with a strike price of $70. There were no derivative transactions reported along with any of last week’s sales.

In late March, Magnetar senior managing partner David Snyderman called CoreWeave “the gold standard now for AI infrastructure” and told Bloomberg that the firm had not used the IPO as an opportunity to reduce its stake. Synderman was among the Magnetar-affiliated parties that reduced their positions last week.

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Bloom Energy rises after analyst updates

Fuel-cell-based power provider Bloom Energy jumped Monday after analysts at Bank of America and RBC Capital published somewhat contradictory commentary on the shares.

In its note, BofA said the company’s “new Brookfield partnership adds a blue-chip counterparty and reinforces its position at the center of the AI-driven power-resiliency build-out.”

But BofA analysts still rate the stock an “underperform,” citing “aggressive market assumptions” about the rate at which its recent announcements of partnerships and memorandums of understanding (MOUs) with potential data center clients, including Oracle, can be converted into actual revenue that justify the market’s assumptions about the coming years. They wrote:

“Bloom Energy would need to convert nearly all announced MOUs, accelerate project execution, and sustain 20%+ incremental margins, a steep execution curve for a company that has only recently achieved low-double-digit EBITDA margins. To reach 2030 levels, the company would need to achieve nearly double those deployments annually. The current valuation, in our view, already reflects this ‘blue sky’ scenario.”

And while BofA did raise its price target for the shares to $26 from $24, that’s roughly 80% below where the stock now trades.

Analysts at RBC, however, were much more sanguine about the prospects for the company. In a note published over the weekend, they raised their price target to $123 from $75, suggesting that the market seems to be pricing only a relatively modest part of the potential opportunity for Bloom represented by so-called behind-the-meter (BTM) data centers. (Those are data centers that have their own dedicated on-site power generation.) They wrote:

“We believe the upside opportunity continues to skew favorably on a growing BTM datacenter opportunity that we believe is still in the early stages. We acknowledge the competitive dynamics, but point to the recent partnership announcement with Brookfield as another proof point for the competitiveness of BE’s solution. We believe shares are priced for an incremental capacity increase which we think is supported by a large and growing TAM [total addressable market] opportunity.”

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Grail rises after announcing $325 million raise from Hims, others

Grail, a cancer detection biotech, rose more than 20% after it announced that it raised $325 million from a slate of investors including Hims & Hers.

Grail sells a blood test that detects cancerous tumors early on. The company also announced encouraging trial results for its flagship test, Galleri, on Friday.

Grail sold 4,639,543 shares at $70.05, a discount from the $78 closing price on Friday, to a group of more than six investors. Hims did not immediately respond to questions from Sherwood News, including how much of the $325 million fundraise it contributed. Grail announced last week that it received a $110 million investment from Samsung.

Grail reported $67.4 million in revenue in the first half of this year, up from $58.6 million in the same period in 2024. Galleri is available commercially but is pending approval from the Food and Drug Administration, which could position it to be covered by major insurers.

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AppLovin sinks amid report that multiple state regulators are looking into its data collection practices

Shares of adtech company AppLovin are on their back foot to open the week on the heels of a report from the New York Post that “state regulators, including staff from the attorneys general from Delaware, Oregon and Connecticut, have reached out to multiple short sellers, seemingly as part of a preliminary investigation.”

AppLovin told the Post that it is “not engaged in any investigations with any state attorneys general regarding its business; nor has the Company been contacted by any state attorneys general regarding any such alleged investigation.”

AppLovin got whacked earlier this month after Bloomberg reported that its data collection practices are the subject of an SEC probe. While they initially bounced after Wall Street suggested selling in response to the news was overdone, they’ve since proceeded to hit fresh lows even after AppLovin said that it had shut down software that short sellers alleged was responsible for installing apps on users’ phones without their permission.

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