Brinker shares slide after earnings, but Chili’s is still bringing the heat as Gen Z’s dining-out darling
All hail the Triple Dipper.
Brinker International shares slid about 8% in premarket trading Monday, even as the parent of Chili’s and Maggiano’s Little Italy served up top- and bottom-line results that exceeded estimates and boosted its sales guidance.
The slump in the stock may signal overinflated expectations for a company that had been performing very well year to date, up 21% heading into today’s session versus a 6% decline in the S&P 500.
The fast-casual giant posted Q3 earnings of $2.66 per share, beating analyst estimates of $2.56, while revenue rose 27% year over year to $1.425 billion, also ahead of Wall Street’s target. Chili’s, Brinker’s undisputed MVP, drove most of the gains: comparable sales at the chain soared 28%, and franchisees pulled in $237.4 million, up from $216.2 million a year ago.
Brinker also sweetened its full-year outlook, raising revenue guidance to between $5.33 billion and $5.35 billion — a jump from the $5.15 billion to $5.25 billion range it offered back in January.
“Chili’s sales growth this quarter was driven primarily by continued increases in traffic, supported by advertising that highlights our industry-leading value and encourages guest trial,” the company said in a statement.
The continued strength in Chili’s is thanks in no small part to a social media sensation: the Triple Dipper.
TikTok made me do it
Chili’s has long been a staple of the American dining scene, first opening in Dallas in 1975 with a Southwestern-style menu aimed at bridging casual food and a bar-forward atmosphere. But most recently, the chain’s Triple Dipper — a choose-three combo of appetizers like Southwestern egg rolls, chicken crispers, sliders, and mozzarella sticks — has put the 50-year-old brand back on the map, becoming a near-instant viral hit.
According to trend analytics firm Spate, online interest in the Triple Dipper has surged by 118.5% over the past year, with TikTok engagement spiking 375.5%. Google searches, meanwhile, climbed nearly 30%. Much of that momentum can be traced back to content creators like Celine Chung, a California-based food and lifestyle influencer who saw her first Triple Dipper video explode with over 6.6 million views (and counting).
“I did the whole flash shot of the Triple Dipper spread — it just looked so visually appealing,” Chung told Sherwood News. “It started picking up fast. I checked back like 30 minutes later and it already had hundreds of thousands of views.”
Chung, who began creating food content in 2018 and pivoted to TikTok during the pandemic, says Chili’s content has proven unusually sticky. “In my first Chili’s one, I did like the whole flash with the spread of the Triple Dipper, and it just was so visually appealing. I think maybe I added a cheese pull in the beginning, too. I found that it really gravitates with an audience.”
A Kitchen Revamped
Brinker is betting big on that kind of heat. In the previous quarter, Chili’s began streamlining kitchen operations by removing its wing station, making room for high-performing items like the Triple Dipper and chicken crispers. It’s been paying off: the Triple Dipper accounted for 14% of total restaurant sales in Q2. Executives say the menu revamp is not only attracting a younger demographic, but also increasing average check sizes and driving repeat visits.
Even as restaurant spending grew 2% in 2024 — marking a fourth straight year of gains — Brinker has left the broader category in the dust. The company has tacked on more than $4 billion in market cap over the past year. Even with the Tuesday sell-off, Brinker’s stock has blown past rivals like Dine Brands (Applebee’s, IHOP), Cheesecake Factory, and Bloomin' Brands (Outback Steakhouse, Carrabba’s), and is up more than 203% over the past year.
