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Bullish Snap analyst : “Will stabilize from here”

Deutsche Bank maintained its “buy” rating on the stock, but cut the price target.

As Snap endures a serious market beatdown Wednesday after posting earnings yesterday, bullish Deutsche Bank analysts maintained their “buy” rating on the stock, writing that they have confidence in the company’s strategic moves despite economic uncertainty created by President Trump’s trade war.

In particular, they spotlighted Snap’s growing SnapChat+ subscription service and momentum in its “direct response” advertising business. Direct response ads are a growth area of the ad industry, focused on digital ads that nudge viewers to take some sort of immediate action, like making a purchase or download.

Growth in direct response ads, Deutsche analysts wrote, will allow the company to boost ad sales to small and medium-sized businesses, diversifying the company’s client base. They wrote:

“While the company acknowledged that advertiser spending has been impacted by the macro environment, including some of those impacted by the changes to the de minimis trade exemption, we contend that Snap’s ad platform moving down funnel will help diversify toward an increasingly durable revenue mix, supported further by outsized [small and medium sized business] advertiser growth (up 60% y/y in 1Q), and continued strong growth at SnapChat+.

Overall, we think North American and EU daily active user trends will stabilize from here and we are positive on Snap’s ability to scale its direct response business, become more performant, drive greater adoption from SMB advertisers, and deliver greater revenue durability through subscriptions.

All in, we maintain our Buy rating, however lower our target price to $8.50 from $10.”

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ESTĒE LAUDER store at Beijing Daxing International Airport

Estée Lauder says it is in talks to buy Puig Brands

The American beauty giant is in the midst of a turnaround plan that it says will cost up to $1.6 billion. Shares in each company went in opposite directions on the news.

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Jefferies rises after report of potential takeover from Japan’s SMFG

Jefferies jumped 10% in premarket trading on Tuesday after the Financial Times reported that Japan’s second-largest lender, Sumimoto Mitsui Financial Group, is working on plans for a possible takeover of the US investment bank.

Whilst any potential move is not imminent, SMFG has assembled a small team to prepare if a continued drop in Jefferies’ share price creates an opportunity, according to the Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter. Jefferies’ stock has fallen roughly 40% since the start of the year before today’s move, bringing bringing its market cap to around $8 billion — a fraction of Tokyo-listed SMFG, which is worth ~$124 billion.

SMFG’s banking subsidiary already holds a minority stake in Jefferies, after taking a 5% position in 2021 which was then increased to ~20% last September with a $912 million investment. The two banks have also recently launched a joint venture in Japan, which the FT reported that SMFG is “treating as a test case for integration and a form of due diligence.”

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Palantir pops as its Maven AI targeting system made “official program” for DOD

Palantir jumped Monday following reports that the US military is making official its long-term commitment to buying and using Palantir’s AI-powered data analysis and targeting program.

Reuters’ David Jeans reported over the weekend:

“Palantir’s Maven artificial intelligence system will become an official program of record, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve ​Feinberg said in a letter to Pentagon leaders, a move that locks in long-term use of Palantir’s weapons-targeting technology across ‌the U.S. military.

In the March 9 letter to senior Pentagon leaders and U.S. military commanders, Feinberg said embedding Palantir’s Maven Smart System would provide warfighters ‘with the latest tools necessary to detect, deter, and dominate our adversaries in all domains.’”

Key benefits of being named an “official program of record” include eligibility for permanent funding from the Department of Defense. The designation also implies a long-term commitment to a technology, which significantly decreases competitive threats from alternate military contractors and vendors.

In other words, being a “program of record” implies significant long-term cash flow in the future from the US Treasury to Palantir, and thus the market reaction.

“Palantir’s Maven artificial intelligence system will become an official program of record, Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve ​Feinberg said in a letter to Pentagon leaders, a move that locks in long-term use of Palantir’s weapons-targeting technology across ‌the U.S. military.

In the March 9 letter to senior Pentagon leaders and U.S. military commanders, Feinberg said embedding Palantir’s Maven Smart System would provide warfighters ‘with the latest tools necessary to detect, deter, and dominate our adversaries in all domains.’”

Key benefits of being named an “official program of record” include eligibility for permanent funding from the Department of Defense. The designation also implies a long-term commitment to a technology, which significantly decreases competitive threats from alternate military contractors and vendors.

In other words, being a “program of record” implies significant long-term cash flow in the future from the US Treasury to Palantir, and thus the market reaction.

markets

Lawmakers to introduce bill banning sports contracts on prediction markets: WSJ

Sports-betting stocks rose after The Wall Street Journal reported that a bipartisan pair of lawmakers are seeking to ban Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated companies from offering sports-related contracts on prediction markets.

Reportedly sponsored by Sens. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and John Curtis, R-Utah, the bill would prevent companies like Kalshi or Polymarket’s US arm from posting event contracts related to the outcome of sporting events, a market that accounts for a sizable chunk of their volumes.

Prediction markets have emerged as competitors to sports-betting platforms, which are primarily regulated at the state level, and companies like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment have risen on the news in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers, which both offer prediction markets covering sports and other contracts, ticked down on the news before President Trump’s latest Iran announcement sent much of the stock market jolting higher, with futures on the S&P 500 rising more than 3% in a matter of minutes.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own Robinhood stock as part of my compensation. Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

Prediction markets have emerged as competitors to sports-betting platforms, which are primarily regulated at the state level, and companies like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment have risen on the news in premarket trading.

Meanwhile, Robinhood Markets and Interactive Brokers, which both offer prediction markets covering sports and other contracts, ticked down on the news before President Trump’s latest Iran announcement sent much of the stock market jolting higher, with futures on the S&P 500 rising more than 3% in a matter of minutes.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own Robinhood stock as part of my compensation. Event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC — probabilities referenced or sourced from KalshiEx LLC or ForecastEx LLC.)

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC. Futures and event contracts are offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC.