Markets
markets
Claire Yubin Oh

Bumble soars on better-than-expected Q4 and strong first-quarter profit outlook

Bumble surged more than 20% in premarket trading on Thursday after the dating app operator posted better-than-expected Q4 results and provided Q1 profit guidance that also beat estimates, powered by its ongoing turnaround efforts.

For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, the company reported:

  • Revenue of $224.2 million — down 14% year on year, but above the Wall Street consensus estimate of $221 million (per data compiled by Bloomberg).

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $71.6 million, beating analyst expectations of $63.5 million.

For the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Bumble forecasts:

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $76 million to $80 million, well ahead of analysts’ consensus estimate of $57.7 million.

  • Revenue in the range of $209 million to $213 million, roughly meeting Wall Street expectations of $210 million.

Since founder Whitney Wolfe Herd returned to the top job around a year ago, Bumble has been undergoing a broad turnaround plan, featuring the introduction of new AI-enabled features to compete with stiff competition in the dating app market.

In the company’s press release, Wolfe Herd commented on its strategic overhaul: “With the heavy lift of our quality reset behind us, we are accelerating product innovation and prioritizing member experience enhancements. We are building from a stronger base and positioning Bumble for its next chapter of product-led growth.”

Though Bumble is still being hit by the shrinking market — total paying users decreased 12% last year compared to 2024 — the company is notably improving its profitability, raising its adjusted EBITDA margin to 32% in the fourth quarter, up from 28% compared to the year before.

The company is now focused on product and technology innovation in the era of AI. Q2 will see the launch of its Bumble 2.0 back-end infrastructure, which will allow Bumble to “deliver member experience improvements more quickly and intelligently, deepen personalization, support how our monetization model evolves over time, and serve as the foundation for more potential product launches in the future,” Wolfe Herd confirmed.

Though Bumble is still being hit by the shrinking market — total paying users decreased 12% last year compared to 2024 — the company is notably improving its profitability, raising its adjusted EBITDA margin to 32% in the fourth quarter, up from 28% compared to the year before.

The company is now focused on product and technology innovation in the era of AI. Q2 will see the launch of its Bumble 2.0 back-end infrastructure, which will allow Bumble to “deliver member experience improvements more quickly and intelligently, deepen personalization, support how our monetization model evolves over time, and serve as the foundation for more potential product launches in the future,” Wolfe Herd confirmed.

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UiPath dips despite revenue beat, as guidance fails to excite analysts about longer-term growth

UiPath is down 5% in premarket trading on Thursday after the software and agentic automation company’s guidance failed to fully address investors’ growth concerns, despite posting upbeat results for the quarter and full year ended January 31, 2026.

For the final quarter of FY2026, UiPath posted revenue of $481 million, just above analysts’ consensus estimate of $465 million (compiled by Bloomberg), and adjusted earnings per share of $0.30, topping Wall Street estimates by 18%. The company’s annualized recurring revenue grew 11% year over year to $1.853 billion, and the quarter also rounded out the company’s first profitable full year, with a GAAP operating income of $57 million for fiscal 2026.

Despite the better-than-expected results, shares slumped seemingly on the company’s conservative growth guidance. UiPath expects the following for the full year ending January 31, 2027:

  • Revenue between $1.754 billion and $1.759 billion, which would signal a slowdown in year-over-year growth to at least 9%, compared with 13% in the latest full-year results.

  • ARR in the range of $2.051 billion to $2.056 billion as of January 31, 2027.

  • Non-GAAP operating income of approximately $415 million.

In the wake of the results, a number of analysts have cut their price targets, suggesting that Wall Street was implicitly hoping for more exciting guidance. Morgan Stanley’s analyst cut their price target to $17 (from $19), Canaccord dropped its target to $15 (from $19), and UBS lowered it to $13 (from $17).

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AI “bottleneck” stocks are the big winners halfway through a tumultuous week

Memory stocks and chip machinery companies are bouncing Wednesday, following a strong Oracle earnings report that bolstered confidence in the durability of the AI data center build-out.

In fact, Sandisk is the top performer of the S&P 500 so far this week, rising more than 21% from Friday’s close, as of shortly after 2 p.m. ET. Memory chip maker Micron is second in line, up more than 13% in weekly gains, and hard disk drive maker Western Digital is also getting a lift.

Other big winners so far this week are some of the so-called semicap shares — makers of the ultraprecise machines that turn silicon into actual semiconductors — with Lam Research and KLA Corp both racking up gains of about 10% on the week. Applied Materials is up about 8% this week.

Thematically speaking, both memory stocks like Sandisk and Micron as well as semicap shares like KLA have been part of the “buy the bottleneck” trade, in which investors buy companies they believe sit at key pinch points in the AI supply chain and therefore have pretty tremendous pricing power. Through that lens, the stocks’ bounce might reflect some additional excitement about the durability of the data center boom after Oracle’s results, which included a larger-than-expected capex number as well as sales guidances that was higher than Wall Street was forecasting.

But the bounce also may be the less interesting market phenomenon of mean reversion rearing its head, as these stocks were also some of the most beaten down in the S&P 500 last week, when Sandisk lost 17% and Lam lost about 15%, for example. So, some snapback may merely be a market reflex.

Oracle jumps after Q3 results exceed expectations, boost to sales guidance

Oracle jumps after Q3 results exceed expectations, boost to sales guidance

Other big winners so far this week are some of the so-called semicap shares — makers of the ultraprecise machines that turn silicon into actual semiconductors — with Lam Research and KLA Corp both racking up gains of about 10% on the week. Applied Materials is up about 8% this week.

Thematically speaking, both memory stocks like Sandisk and Micron as well as semicap shares like KLA have been part of the “buy the bottleneck” trade, in which investors buy companies they believe sit at key pinch points in the AI supply chain and therefore have pretty tremendous pricing power. Through that lens, the stocks’ bounce might reflect some additional excitement about the durability of the data center boom after Oracle’s results, which included a larger-than-expected capex number as well as sales guidances that was higher than Wall Street was forecasting.

But the bounce also may be the less interesting market phenomenon of mean reversion rearing its head, as these stocks were also some of the most beaten down in the S&P 500 last week, when Sandisk lost 17% and Lam lost about 15%, for example. So, some snapback may merely be a market reflex.

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