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Web Summit 2021 - Day Two
Tarek Mansour, Co-founder, Kalshi (Photo By Diarmuid Greene/Getty Images)
No bets

No event contracts for you!

The CFTC wants to ban several event contracts, despite Americans legally betting billions on the same things.

Jack Raines

Want to bet on the 2024 presidential election? Not if the government has anything to say about it.

Last Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) voted to propose new regulation to ban various “event contracts,” which the agency defines as “a type of derivative contract, typically with a binary payoff structure, based on the outcome of an underlying occurrence or event.”

For context, as part of the Dodd Frank Act, the CFTC has the power to prohibit certain event contracts if they 1) fall within the scope of certain “enumerated activities,” such as terrorism, assassination, war, and gaming, as well as any activity considered illegal under federal or state law, and 2) are contrary to public interest.

The CFTC is proposing that each enumerated activity be considered contrary to public interest by default, and, more importantly, that gaming should be more specifically defined to include the outcome of a political contest, the outcome of an awards contest, the outcome of a game in which one or more athletes compete, or an occurrence or non-occurrence in connection with such a contest or game.

TL;DR: events contracts for sporting events, award ceremonies, and political elections would be banned.

This isn’t the CFTC’s first conflict with the event contracts market. Seven months ago, prediction markets exchange Kalshi sued the CFTC for blocking its election contract markets.

While the CFTC claims these proposed changes are in the name of public interest, this move highlights inconsistencies in government regulation of different markets. For example, while the CFTC is trying to block event contracts related to “outcomes of games” and “awards contests,” Americans legally wagered $119 billion on sports and $185 billion in casinos in 2023. They also spent $95 billion on lottery tickets in 2021.

While event contracts differ structurally from these other examples (they are derivatives that change hands on exchanges, not one-off bets on football games, roulette wheels, or scratch off tickets), they accomplish the same goal: monetary payouts for accurate predictions. Blocking event contracts for “awards contests” and “game outcomes” while consumers already spend hundreds of billions on these very things seems inconsistent.

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Data center trade deep in the red

The data center trade is seeing its steepest sell-off since the market rout that was ignited by President Donald Trump’s Rose Garden tariff announcement back in April.

Goldman Sachs’ themed basket of AI data center shares was down more than 6% at around 12 p.m. ET, putting it on track for its worst day since the tariff announcement.

Losses hammered seemingly every form of input needed for the sprawling concrete server warehouses at the heart of the investment boom.

Hardware makers including data storage companies like Sandisk, Western Digital, and Seagate Technology Holdings, as well as DRAM maker Micron — some of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 this year — were taking a licking, as were networking stocks Cisco and Arista Networks and data center builders such as Vertiv Holdings and electrical and mechanical contractor Emcor.

Optimism for all things AI has seemed to evaporate throughout the week, as the stock market greeted lackluster quarterly numbers from Oracle and Broadcom with jittery sell-offs and concern about growing debts that could crater cash flows.

Those worries seem to be spreading to ancillary beneficiaries of the AI boom on Friday, gouging a chunk out of charts that retail dip buyers have not — at least so far — stepped in to buy as we head into the weekend.

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Oracle denies Bloomberg report that it’s delaying some data centers for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027

Getting a multi-hundred-billion-dollar backlog for cloud computing revenues from data center projects is easy. Building them is hard.

Oracle extended declines to as much as -6.5% on the day on the heels of a Bloomberg report that the cloud giant has pushed back the completion dates for some of the data centers it’s building for OpenAI to 2028 from 2027, citing people familiar with the work. Oracle denied this report, telling Reuters that there have been no delays to any sites required to meet its contractual commitments and that all milestones remain on track.

Shares had fully pared their report-induced drop ahead of Oracle’s reply, but remain in the red for the day.

Bloomberg said the reported postponement was attributed to labor and material shortages.

Oracle has been spending more on capex than Wall Street had anticipated, leading to higher-than-expected cash burn. Management boosted its full-year capital spending plans by $15 billion after reporting Q2 results earlier this week.

Oracle’s cloud infrastructure sales came in short of estimates in its fiscal 2026 Q2, a signal that markets already had reason to doubt its ability to quickly turn its humungous RPO (that is, remaining purchase obligations) into revenues.

Traders also seem to be of the mind that potential delays to data center completions are going to limit sales for what goes into them.

Some of the bigger losers since the Bloomberg headline hit the wires include:

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Broadcom’s post-earnings tumble is weighing on Google’s entire AI ecosystem

Broadcom’s post-earnings plunge is prompting a sharp pullback in Google-linked AI stocks, which had been on fire thanks to the warm reception to Gemini 3.

The stocks getting hit hard:

A basket of these Google-linked AI stocks compiled by Morgan Stanley is suffering one of its worst losses of the year. This brisk retreat also follows the release of GPT-5.2 by OpenAI.

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Citi initiates coverage of Planet Labs with “buy” rating

Planet Labs was up after aerospace and defense analysts at Citi initiated coverage with a “buy/high risk” rating and $19 price target.

The stock is up more than 40% this week, after a strong earnings result that spotlighted the company’s growing opportunity in linking its core business of capturing daily images of the planet with AI technologies.

Citi analysts noted the potential for a positive flywheel effect for Planet Labs as it deepens its focus on integrating AI into its offerings:

“AI is accelerating the conversion of pixels to decisions, where Planet’s daily scan and deep archive offer a uniquely large training corpus and broad-area foundation for automation. AI-enabled solutions (MDA/GMS/AMS) are gaining traction with customers such as NATO and the U.S. DoW, validating the approach of integrating AI into broad-area monitoring products... These AI moves create a compounding advantage: more coverage generates more training data, which improves models, which in turn increases product utility and addressable demand.”

The stock has also caught the attention of some of the retail trading crowd, with call options activity spiking on Thursday as traders rode the market reaction to the results.

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