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Web Summit 2021 - Day Two
Tarek Mansour, Co-founder, Kalshi (Photo By Diarmuid Greene/Getty Images)
No bets

No event contracts for you!

The CFTC wants to ban several event contracts, despite Americans legally betting billions on the same things.

Jack Raines

Want to bet on the 2024 presidential election? Not if the government has anything to say about it.

Last Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) voted to propose new regulation to ban various “event contracts,” which the agency defines as “a type of derivative contract, typically with a binary payoff structure, based on the outcome of an underlying occurrence or event.”

For context, as part of the Dodd Frank Act, the CFTC has the power to prohibit certain event contracts if they 1) fall within the scope of certain “enumerated activities,” such as terrorism, assassination, war, and gaming, as well as any activity considered illegal under federal or state law, and 2) are contrary to public interest.

The CFTC is proposing that each enumerated activity be considered contrary to public interest by default, and, more importantly, that gaming should be more specifically defined to include the outcome of a political contest, the outcome of an awards contest, the outcome of a game in which one or more athletes compete, or an occurrence or non-occurrence in connection with such a contest or game.

TL;DR: events contracts for sporting events, award ceremonies, and political elections would be banned.

This isn’t the CFTC’s first conflict with the event contracts market. Seven months ago, prediction markets exchange Kalshi sued the CFTC for blocking its election contract markets.

While the CFTC claims these proposed changes are in the name of public interest, this move highlights inconsistencies in government regulation of different markets. For example, while the CFTC is trying to block event contracts related to “outcomes of games” and “awards contests,” Americans legally wagered $119 billion on sports and $185 billion in casinos in 2023. They also spent $95 billion on lottery tickets in 2021.

While event contracts differ structurally from these other examples (they are derivatives that change hands on exchanges, not one-off bets on football games, roulette wheels, or scratch off tickets), they accomplish the same goal: monetary payouts for accurate predictions. Blocking event contracts for “awards contests” and “game outcomes” while consumers already spend hundreds of billions on these very things seems inconsistent.

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Ford surges on bullish options activity, Morgan Stanley praises its battery business

Ford is on pace for its best trading day in seven months as bullish options activity propels the stock.

More than 226,000 call options have changed hands as of 11:25 a.m. ET on Wednesday, roughly 4x the 20-day average for a full session.

A Tuesday evening note from Morgan Stanley highlighted the company’s new energy business, Ford Energy, which will sell US-assembled battery systems to “utilities, data centers and large industrial and commercial customers in the United States.”

“We believe that there is a fairly high likelihood that Ford signs an [energy storage system] supply agreement with large commercial customers, and potentially hyperscalers, over the next few months,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco. The firm estimates that Ford Energy, which is licensing tech from Chinese battery giant CATL, could generate between $500 million and $600 million of run-rate earnings before interest and taxes at 20 gigawatt-hours of production.

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Tower Semiconductor soars on solid sales guidance with $1.3 billion in silicon photonics sales contracts

Tower Semiconductor is surging in early trading after the company released solid Q1 results and announced $1.3 billion in silicon photonics contract wins for 2027.

Q1 revenues of $413.6 million came in slightly better than Wall Street’s call, with adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.65 well ahead of the $0.56 estimate.

Looking forward, the company projects Q2 2026 revenue to reach an all-time record of $455 million (plus or minus 5%), above analysts’ expectations for $436.6 million.

Tower Semiconductor is benefiting from a surge in demand for AI infrastructure and is committed to its multiyear growth target in its silicon photonics business. Tower has already received $290 million in customer cash prepayments to reserve this capacity. Management said it has “an even larger contractual wafer commitment for 2028 for which additional associated prepayments are due by January 2027.”

“We are confident in our path toward achieving our model targets of $2.8 billion in annual revenue and $750 million in net profit in 2028,” said Russell Ellwanger, CEO of Tower Semiconductor.

Shares of Tower Semiconductor are up more than 80% year to date.

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Nebius soars on strong Q1 results, boost to full-year contracted power guidance

Nebius is soaring in early trading after reporting robust Q1 results and boosting its outlook for how much power it expects to have secured by year-end, a necessary ingredient for AI compute.

For the three months ended March 31, the neocloud reported:

  • Revenue of $399 million (compared to analyst estimates of $391.6 million).

  • Adjusted EBITDA of $129.5 million (estimate: $87.2 million).

Management raised their guidance for contracted power, or energy supply, to more than 4 gigawatts by year-end 2026 from a prior view in February of more than 3 gigawatts.

These results “strengthen the case for scaled AI infrastructure, in our view,” wrote Bloomberg Intelligence senior technology analyst Vasu Kasibhotla. “The 3.5x quarter-over-quarter pipeline increase in 1Q, a new 1.2 GW Pennsylvania facility and $6.3 billion raised in the quarter improve funding and capacity to execute.”

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Eos Energy Enterprises soars on joint venture with Cerberus for energy storage and Q1 revenue beat

Eos Energy Enterprises is surging in premarket trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q1 sales and unveiled a joint venture with a major alternative investment firm for battery energy storage projects.

The key Q1 numbers:

  • Revenue of $57 million (compared to analyst estimates of $54.27 million).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.12 (estimate: a $0.20 loss), which was juiced by a noncash change in fair value based on the change in EOSE’s share price.

Concurrently with earnings, Eos and Cerberus Capital Management announced the formation of a joint venture called Frontier Power USA, which will be a stand-alone, purpose-built Independent Power Producer to be supplied through a 2-gigawatt-hour capacity reservation agreement with Eos.

“Frontier Power USA is expected to deploy this capacity across commercial and industrial applications, AI data centers, and utility-scale projects, drawing from a multi GWh project pipeline which is under active development,” per the press release.

To support the platforms launch, Cerberus has committed $100 million in equity, and, to underscore its confidence in Eos, extended its stock lockup agreement through the end of 2026. Eos plans to launch a rights offering to raise $150 million to support this JV.

“The market is telling us what it needs: long-duration storage that is safe, American-made, and financeable at scale,” said Joe Mastrangelo, CEO of Eos. “We have the technology, the manufacturing, the controls, and now, with Frontier Power USA, the planned capital to accelerate project deployment.”

Last month, Eos also announced a joint development agreement with Turbine-X Energy. The partnership focuses on deploying zinc-based battery storage solutions for AI hyperscale data centers, with a target capacity of up to 2 gigawatt-hours beginning in 2027.

For the full year in 2026, Eos expects to achieve revenue between $300 million and $400 million, in line with its previously provided guidance.

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