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Traders are enthusiastic about Chinese stocks. Their economy? Not so much.

Chinese stocks are surging, but the shares of US companies that sell things to China aren’t.

Luke Kawa

Stimulus announcements have spurred a rally in Mainland Chinese equities stronger than anything the S&P 500 has ever enjoyed

One key question as traders continue to digest the implications of this policy shift in China: Is the skyrocketing stock market reflecting what’s about to happen to the economy or not?

So far, market internals are suggesting that the answer is “not.” At least, not enough that the spillovers will be a big positive for the companies that sell things to China.

A basket of stocks collected by Goldman Sachs of US companies that have significant sales exposure to China (excluding semiconductors) is outpacing global equities by about 2.2% since September 23, the day before the first round of policy announcements landed. That contrasts with a near 40% outperformance for the Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF, which tracks the Mainland China benchmark CSI 300 Index.

The view that this is more of a stock market story than an economic one is shared by many prominent China watchers.

“The pivot thus far is more beneficial for Chinese domestic equities than it is for real growth and commodity demand; officials have signaled new determination to boost equities, but not yet the follow-through on fiscal stimulus and property support necessary to rejuvenate activity,” writes Michael Hirson, head of China research at 22V Research. 

To compare the stock market’s view to the bond market’s: the CSI 300 erased more than a year’s worth of losses before the Golden Week holiday started. But Chinese 30-year government bond yields — which incorporate the market’s long-term views on domestic growth and inflation outcomes — haven’t even made it back to where they were at the start of September.

“The implied equities put means investors have a (temporary) backstop after many years of suffering,” writes Shehzad Qazi, managing director at China Beige Book International. “But no, Dr. Xi did not wake up one morning and decide to reverse the past six years of tough medicine.”

Some of the US stocks that have benefitted the most from Chinese stimulus announcements are casino operators in the region like Wynn Resorts or Las Vegas Sands, up about 31% and 25%, respectively, since September 23. The outlook for such companies is much more tied to Chinese stock markets (and household wealth) than Chinese economic activity.

For macroeconomically-sensitive assets, it’s become more of a mixed bag.

“Copper and the Australian dollar appear to be listening to the Chinese stock market right now because both are being driven higher by a third variable (Chinese stimulus announcement effect and the Xi put in Chinese stocks),” writes Brent Donnelly, president of Spectra Markets, in an October 3 note. “But the stock market is a policy target, and copper is not, so there is no guarantee that once this announcement effect dissipates, Chinese stocks and copper won’t decouple.”

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Nike sinks to lowest level since 2014 after warning of “challenged” sales environment in Q4 report

Did Nike do it?

Investors had a mixed reaction after the global sports apparel company reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday after the bell. Shares initially rose 5% as Nike beat out Wall Street expectations amid a hefty tariff refund bonus. However, the stock then sank to its lowest level since August 2014 in postmarket trading.

Here are the Q4 numbers:

  • Revenue of $11.0 billion (estimate: $10.8 billion).

  • Adjusted earnings per share of $0.20 (estimate: $0.12).

Ahead of this report, Nike warned that results would be flattered by a one-time tariff refund (now estimated at roughly $0.52 per share for the bottom line). That gave the company an extra cushion in snapping its streak of seven quarters of year-over-year profit declines.

Over the past year, the company had been punished by tariffs on imported goods, stagnant consumer spending, and increasing competition from other footwear brands like New Balance, Adidas, and Hoka.

Outgoing CFO Matthew Friend deemed it an “increasingly challenging operating environment, where sell-through remains challenged.”

markets

Rocket Lab deal lifts space stocks

Shares of Rocket Lab are surging after announcing an $8 billion acquisition of satellite communications operator Iridium Communications, helping lift a broader basket of space-related stocks as investors piled back into the sector.

Planet Labs, AST SpaceMobile and Redwire all traded higher alongside Rocket Lab, extending gains in an industry that has drawn enhanced investor attention in recent months in light of the strategic importance that governments place on space and satellite communications infrastructure.

In a presentation, Rocket Lab’s management called the purchase “a shortcut” for its satellite communications business.

Under the terms of the agreement, Iridium shareholders will receive $27 in cash and Rocket Lab stock, valuing Iridium at $54 per share. Backed by a $3.6 billion bridge loan committed by Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, Rocket Lab absorbs Iridium’s globally licensed spectrum and an active base of 2.5 million subscribers.

Rocket Lab has also remained one of the most active launch providers in the sector. The company completed its 12th launch of the year last week, maintaining one of the highest launch cadences among commercial space companies.

Today's rally helps offset a brutal stretch for the group. Rocket Lab shares had fallen over 35% over the prior month, while Planet Labs stock was down more than 40% and AST SpaceMobile stock was down around 30% over the same window.

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Jake Lahut

Comcast shares rise on news of NBCUniversal spinoff deal

Comcast rose on the news that the telecom behemoth is spinning off NBCUniversal and Sky from its cable portfolio. 

Comcast initially jumped up to 17% in early trading, with the deal leaving management to focus on its core verticals of cable, wireless, and business services. 

NBCUniversal and Sky will form a new publicly traded company, similar to Versant Media, the holding company of CNBC and MS NOW that Comcast officially spun off in January. Bravo, one of the most lucrative properties that remained at Comcast, will remain part of NBCUniversal in the deal. The Universal theme parks and studios will also come with the new spinoff entity, along with Telemundo and Peacock.

Mike Cavanagh, the co-CEO of Comcast, will become the CEO for NBCUniversal, according to CNBC. 

The spinoff will be completed in about a year, according to a Comcast company statement. Its shareholders will also own shares in NBCUniversal, according to the same statement.

markets

Blackberry managed to build a real business out of its memestock boom

The former memestock BlackBerry surged on blowout earnings this week — and the bull case has nothing to do with phones. 

  • Q1 Revenue: $152.9 million, up 26% from a year ago 

  • EPS: 4 cents, the fourth time in five quarters that BlackBerry posted a net profit

  • Shares of the stock are up nearly 180 percent over the past year. 

  • Cars on QNX: 275 million, nearly every maker except Tesla

When you think of Blackberry, you probably picture the clunky QWERTY keyboard and yearn for the pre-AI slop era. But for many traders, that nostalgic memory could have been getting in the way of evaluating a rising star

In its first quarter earnings on Thursday, the cell-phone-turned-B2B-enterprise-software-company blew past estimates with revenue up 26% and a 44% EPS beat after back-to-back 30%+ beats before that. The company hiked its full-year profit forecast to 16 cents to 20 cents per share with revenue between $594 million and $621 million. 

“The market still misdefines BlackBerry,” analyst Suthan Sukumar of Stifel said Tuesday in a note to clients. “This is…a mission-critical software layer in the physical AI stack and a dominant partner to silicon leaders like NVIDIA, Qualcomm, and AMD powering the build-out from cloud to edge, across cars, robots, factories, and medical devices.” 

QNX, BlackBerry’s real-time operating system — runs inside of 275 million cars worldwide. “There's more software going into a car these days than ever before, CEO John Giamatteo told Bloomberg on Friday. “That's really where we shine as a company.” 

Modern autos generate terabytes of daily data, from tire pressure to monitoring driving behavior, and QNX is the foundation beneath all of it. The system is safety-certified, that’s engineer talk for does what it's told, every time, whereas AI systems make predictions based on probabilities. 

“As intelligent machines become increasingly autonomous and operate around people, the requirements for safety, security, reliability, and real-time determinism become even more important,” said Giamatteo on Thursday’s earnings call. “Unlike probabilistic AI systems, QNX technology is deterministic and safety-certified, which is exactly why it is so hard to replicate and why customers trust it for systems where failure is not an option.”

About 20% of QNX revenue now comes from non-car segments. Use in robotics, medical devices, drones, and industrial automation are growing. In June, NVIDIA announced Halos for Robotics and QNX is in the stack. Per QNX’s own research, 85% of robotics engineers expect software’s role in their field to increase over the next three to five years. 

Similarly, analysts say the global military drone sector is expected to surpass $25 billion in 2026 and more than double by 2032. QNX is already deployed in unmanned aerial systems as well as used in military-grade encrypted communications.

What does the Street think now? 

  • Raised from $4.75 to $9.50 at Raymond James

  • Raised from $10 to $13 at CIBC 

  • Coverage initiated with Buy at $12 at Stifel 

On Friday, when Bloomberg asked if consumers could swap out iPhones for the nostalgic keyboard again, Giamatteo said “I don't think you'll see us get back into the phone game anytime soon.”

BlackBerry shed its consumer identity years ago. What’s left is a profitable B2B software company that’s already embedded in tech infrastructure from cars to robots to drones. As physical AI scales, the demand for trusted safety-certified software is likely to grow.

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