Chinese tax change boosts US commodity companies

China is scrapping a tax rebate for domestic commodity exporters, sending the prices of some of those raw materials — in particular, aluminum — soaring.

The Ministry of Finance said that an export-tax rebate which encouraged Chinese producers to send more overseas has been canceled for aluminum and copper, among other products, and reduced for batteries, photovoltaics, and more.

US-based aluminum producers Alcoa and Century Aluminum were among the best-performing stocks in the premarket session, each up about 7%. Both continued their upward trend after the market opened, with Century up over 13% as of 10:20 a.m. ET.

The tax tweak may be an attempt to highlight China’s dominant position in many commodity markets ahead of the Trump administration coming into power, or ensure more security in its domestic supply.

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The early rally in US stocks ran out of steam as government shutdown looms

Stocks still ended the day in the green, pulled higher by tech.

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Luke Kawa5h

Cava may be an unlikely victim of a potential US government shutdown

Government shutdowns typically aren’t a big deal for the stock market as a whole.

But for Cava, which was founded in Maryland and is headquartered in Washington, DC, there’s the prospect of forgone sales in the event that government employees suddenly have no cause to frequent the fast-casual Mediterranean chain, which means emptier tills as bellies get filled elsewhere.

At the end of Q2, Cava had 398 locations. It currently boasts seven in the district proper, at least 14 a close drive away in Virginia, and 25 in Maryland.

Cava’s annual report singled out the Washington, DC/Maryland/Virginia metropolitan area as having “a high concentration of restaurants” in discussing risk factors for the company. And it may be a particularly bad time to be a slop bowl seller around the nation’s capital.

The potential shutdown would be the latest challenge for Cava as it struggles to stand out amid a myriad of lunch options for working professionals and following the recently announced departure of COO Jennifer Somers.

For what it’s worth, this is not the first time this year Cava has faced concerns about potential weakness in DC. During its Q1 earnings call, Bank of America analyst Sara Senatore questioned Cava’s leadership about a potential impact from DOGE given its “fairly big footprint” in the metro area, and at the time CFO Tricia Tolivar said the company hadn’t really seen evidence of metro-specific softness.

Matt Phillips6h

Robinhood surges as prediction markets gain traction

Robinhood jumped to an all-time intraday record of more than $132 late Monday morning on growing optimism about the brokerage’s prediction markets business both on Wall Street and within the company’s own executive suite.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company subject to certain legal and regulatory restrictions. I own stock as part of my compensation.)

Earlier in the day, Robinhood Chief Executive Vlad Tenev posted this tweet spotlighting that more than 4 billion event contracts have been traded on the platform since they began to be offered in February.

Robinhood Prediction Markets just crossed 4 billion event contracts traded all-time, with over 2 billion in Q3 alone. And we’re just getting started. pic.twitter.com/13LxjqWaNt
— Vlad Tenev (@vladtenev) September 29, 2025

Analysts have also been focusing on the uptick in activity in the events contract business as a potential boon for the shares.

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley published a note on Monday highlighting how trading volumes at prediction market company Kalshi soared to new records over the weekend as traders took positions on the outcomes of college and pro football games using event contracts.

Moley estimates that users at Robinhood — which partnered with Kalshi to offer contracts on games — account for between 25% and 35% of Kalshi’s daily event contract activity.

“We continue to expect HOOD will report ~2.5B of event contracts traded in 3Q25 which, at $0.01/contract, translates to ~$25M in revenue,” Moley wrote.

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Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate, including Robinhood Markets, Inc., Robinhood Financial LLC, Robinhood Securities, LLC, Robinhood Crypto, LLC, or Robinhood Money, LLC.